In recent years, the international oil market fluctuates violently, and the interaction of many factors is prominent, and the prospect of the oil market is confusing. The international crude oil price, after experiencing a continuous sharp rise in 2003, 2004 and 2005, suddenly fell to around $60 from September 2006. From June, 5438 to October, 2007 10, the oil price remained at about 50 dollars, and the great change of oil price had a great impact on China's economic security. This paper makes a preliminary analysis of the factors affecting oil prices from three aspects: supply factors and demand factors affecting the long-term trend of oil prices and short-term factors affecting oil prices for reference.
I. Supply factors affecting oil prices
The supply factors that affect oil prices mainly include world oil reserves, oil supply structure and oil production cost.
Oil production must be based on oil reserves. In the past few decades, the proven reserves of world oil resources have been increasing. At the end of 2005, the proven recoverable reserves of world oil resources were about 6543.8+2007 million barrels, which increased by 430.3 billion barrels in 20 years, with an increase rate of 55.8%. Although the output growth rate is faster than the proven reserves, the ratio of global oil reserves to output at the end of 2005 was 40.6 years. It can be predicted that at least in the next 10 year, there will be no shortage of oil supply in the world. However, due to the non-renewable oil resources, the International Energy Agency (iea) predicts that the world oil production will reach its peak 20 15 years ago, and the global oil supply will gradually enter the stage of landslide.
The supply characteristics of the world oil market also have a great influence on the oil supply. At present, the suppliers of the world oil market mainly include the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. OPEC has the vast majority of proven oil reserves in the world, and its production and price policies have a great influence on the world oil supply and price. Non-OPEC countries mainly exist as price recipients and adjust production according to prices. However, since 2002, stimulated by strong world oil demand and high oil prices, OPEC's output has surged, and the remaining crude oil production capacity has dropped sharply from 5.6 million barrels per day in 2002 to about 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day in 2006. The capacity utilization rate is higher than 90%, and the ability to stabilize oil prices by increasing production is weakened. Market participants are forced to build commercial inventory as a buffer against risks, and inventory demand in turn stimulates oil prices to rise.
At the turn of the century, a new round of mergers and acquisitions initiated by multinational oil companies in the United States and Europe through capital operation has made the world petrochemical industry more and more concentrated. With the increasing control of petrochemical giants over global oil resources, technology and market, the development and competition of the world petrochemical industry and the fluctuation of oil prices have had a far-reaching impact.
In addition, the cost of oil production will also have an impact on oil supply. As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, and then affect the market supply, indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. The lower limit of the world oil price is generally determined by the oil production in high-cost areas, and the oil in low-cost areas determines the price fluctuation range.
Two. Demand factors affecting oil prices
/Shandong Sunshine
Oil demand is mainly determined by the world economic development level and economic structure changes, the development of alternative energy sources and the application of energy-saving technologies.
Global oil consumption is obviously positively related to the global economic growth rate. Global economic growth or unexpected growth will affect the international crude oil market price. The strong economic growth of developing countries such as China and India has also led to a sharp increase in the demand for crude oil, which has led to the soaring price of crude oil in the world. Among them, China's demand for oil drives the global oil consumption growth 1/3. On the other hand, the abnormally high oil price will inevitably hinder the development of the world economy, and the slowdown of global economic growth will affect the increase of oil demand.
The cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil price. When the oil price is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the world oil market. At present, all countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will inevitably have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
Three. Short-term factors affecting oil prices
Short-term influencing factors affect oil prices by influencing the relationship between supply and demand or changing people's expectations of short-term supply and demand.
1. Sudden major political events
In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices.
2. Changes in oil inventories
Inventory is a buffer between supply and demand and plays a positive role in stabilizing oil prices. The inventory level of oecd has become the vane of international oil price, and the influence of commercial inventory on oil price is obviously stronger than that of conventional inventory. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory, stimulate the spot price to rise and reduce the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce commercial inventory, and the spot price drops, forming a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
3. Intervention in the market by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency
OPEC controls most of the world's excess oil production capacity, and iea has a large amount of oil reserves, which can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short time, thus changing people's expectations of oil price trends. The main policy of OPEC is to limit production and protect prices and reduce prices to protect production. The 26 member countries of iea * * * control a large amount of oil stocks to deal with emergencies.
4. Short-term capital flows in the international capital market
Since the 1990s, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the influence of the futures market, and now a price formation mechanism has been formed from the futures market to the spot market. Although speculation in the international crude oil market is not the inducement of oil price rise, due to the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market, a large amount of funds will enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which will inevitably push up the international oil price and seriously deviate from the fundamentals.
5. Exchange rate changes
Relevant research shows that there is a weak correlation between oil price changes and exchange rate changes between the US dollar and major international currencies. Due to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the real income of petroleum products priced in US dollars declined, which led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the high price of crude oil as a response.
6. Abnormal climate
Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other petroleum products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.
7. Changes in interest rates
In the standard non-renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of future mining value relative to current mining value, so the mining path will be convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment, leading to a smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decline in mining speed.
8. Tax policy
Government intervention will make the market consumption curve convex to the present or the future. The tax effect of intertemporal oil exploitation mode depends on the present tax value that changes with time. For example, with the passage of time, the reduction of the present value of tax will change the decision of mining order. Compared with no taxation, taxation will eventually reduce the net income at any time, and will also reduce the mining enthusiasm in the corresponding period. In addition, taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves.