The price of urea also showed a slight upward trend, with a general increase of 20-60 yuan/ton in many places.
The price of broilers has increased greatly, with the increase of fast-growing chickens exceeding 1 yuan/kg in three days.
Egg prices are also rising continuously, and in some areas, egg prices are moving towards 1.5 yuan.
In 2023, the oil price rose for the first time, and it was necessary to fill a box of No.92 gasoline 10 yuan.
654381at 24: 00 on October 3, China will usher in the first oil price adjustment in 2023. Affected by the recent rise in international crude oil prices, according to the current formation mechanism of refined oil prices, the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel will be raised by 250 yuan/ton and 240 yuan/ton respectively, which is equivalent to the price increase of 0.2 yuan for No.92 gasoline, 0.2 1 yuan for No.95 gasoline and 0.2 yuan for No.0 diesel.
Fill up a box of No.92 gasoline, and the car should be 10 yuan.
In this pricing cycle, the rise of international crude oil prices, on the one hand, boosted market confidence by the news that the United States was going to purchase and store, on the other hand, a European country formulated countermeasures to prohibit the export of crude oil to countries that imposed price limits. The market is worried that the international crude oil supply will be affected and the international crude oil price will fluctuate violently.
For the oil price in 2023, the agency predicts that the central axis of the oil price will be 80-90 USD/barrel, and the fluctuation range will be 70- 1 10 USD, which means that the oil price will remain high in 2023.
Mainly because China, as the largest crude oil importer, hopes to exert its strength on the demand side after the epidemic prevention and control is liberalized, which gives the market room for imagination.
In addition, a European country also indicated that it may cut production by up to 700,000 barrels per day to cope with the oil price cap imposed by other countries.
At the same time, the urea period is now rising.
Recently, the spot price of urea in mainstream areas in China has increased slightly, including 10-40 yuan/ton in Shandong, 10-20 yuan/ton in Anhui, 40 yuan/ton in Henan, 20-60 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 20 yuan/ton in Hubei.
In terms of futures,145 yuan/ton on October 3rd increased by 1.78% compared with the previous trading day.
There are three main logics for the increase of spot price of urea:
1. After the urea price was adjusted back, agricultural products rose and manufacturers shipped smoothly.
2. Near the end of the year, compound fertilizer manufacturers have the demand for raw material stocking.
3. The daily output of urea is relatively low.
As the Spring Festival approaches, industrial demand will gradually decline and agricultural demand will come to an end. It is difficult to form a continuous upward trend of urea price, and there is a high probability that there will be a stalemate after a small increase.
The price of broilers has soared and will be higher in March.
Recently, the price of national chicken has risen in an all-round way, with fast-growing national chicken rising 1 yuan in three days, reaching 5.77 yuan, medium-speed national chicken rising to 6.09 yuan, and slow-moving national chicken rising to 7.28 yuan.
The mainstream transaction price of white feather broilers also rose to 3.8 yuan, and the transaction price in front of the shed in Northeast China rose to 3.92 yuan.
Previously, affected by the increasing number of infected people in various places, everyone's willingness to go out for consumption declined rapidly, leading to a short-term slump in market consumption demand. In addition, the production of higher-priced broilers is at a high level, and there is a general backlog of broilers. The price reduction promotion of enterprises has not played a significant role.
In addition, the increase in the number of employees infected also has a greater impact on production.
The market supply exceeds demand, and the price of broilers continues to fall.
Recently, with the end of the peak of infection in some areas, the overall consumption in various places has improved, and the price of broilers has risen from north to south.
However, in the market, the supply of chicken sources is still at a high level, the peak of infection in many areas has not passed, and the recovery of consumption is limited. In the short term, there is still a risk of callback after the national chicken price rises.
The same is true for white feather broilers. In the early stage, the chicken source was overstocked, the demand side was still depressed, and the price of white feather broilers was weak as a whole.
Many people in the industry said that the complete improvement of broiler prices needs to wait until March next year. On the one hand, the previous backlog of broiler production capacity will be consumed in March, on the other hand, the impact of the epidemic on consumption will gradually end.
Egg market "volume and price rise together"
At the end of February, the price of eggs bottomed out and rebounded. At the lowest point, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas of the country fell to 4.24 yuan. Gold, but recently the price of eggs has gone up again. The price of scattered baskets of red eggs in Henan has risen to 4.7-4.95 yuan, in Shandong 4.55-4.7 yuan, and in Jiangsu 4.62-4.9 yuan.
Previously, due to the increase in the number of infected people and weak market demand, the supply of eggs was at a high level, which led to an increase in inventory pressure in all links and a sharp drop in egg prices.
However, the subsequent egg market is expected to "increase in quantity and price".
Egg supply level: Due to the high enthusiasm of eliminating chickens in June+February, 5438, the number of laying hens in June, 5438+1October, 2023 decreased by about 0.5% from the previous month, which will reduce the egg supply to some extent.
Demand level: 1, Spring Festival consumption will start soon, supermarkets will step up stocking, enterprises will issue condolence gifts, residents will prepare Spring Festival new year goods at home, and the purchase of Spring Festival gifts will increase the demand for egg consumption.
2. The peak of infection in some areas has ended, and the demand for egg catering consumption has been boosted.
Generally speaking, during the period of 1, the egg market is in a state of declining supply level and rising demand level, and the egg price is expected to continue to rise.
However, considering that the current inventory pressure in all links is relatively high, the supply of eggs in the market is relatively stable, and the recovery of catering consumption is limited, it is difficult to form a large room for egg prices to rise.