According to the State Council's 16 measures to stabilize prices, this paper analyzes the reasons and countermeasures of China's price increase.
When talking about the reasons for the current price increase of some commodities, Zhou Wangjun said that the first reason is excessive currency issuance, which is a common problem all over the world. Especially after the recent implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the prices of most commodities in the international market have risen sharply these days, with oil reaching $87 and cotton and sugar rising sharply. Some temporary factors have also raised prices this year. For example, the increase in vegetable prices this year is caused by the disastrous weather this year. In the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, labor, capital and land resources rapidly flow to cities, while the production resources in rural areas are relatively reduced. This situation has led to an increase in rural labor costs this year. For example, the reward for picking cotton in Xinjiang is now calculated by kilogram, and picking a kilogram of lint is 3 yuan. There are also factors of hot money speculation. In the first half of this year, the prices of mung beans, garlic and cotton all rose, and cotton rose to 33 thousand yuan per ton, which was the speculation of hot money inside. Zhengzhou Stock Exchange165438+1October 8, cotton futures traded more than 30 billion a day, far exceeding the normal range, with a high turnover rate. In the first half of the year, mung beans and garlic also appeared hoarding and malicious speculation enterprises. & gt& gt Zhou Wangjun said that in 2004, 2007 and 2008, commodity prices rose sharply. In 2004, the price increase was due to the reduction of grain production. At that time, CPI reached 3.9%. The price increase in 2007 was due to the shortage of pork, which rose by 5.9% in 2008. This time, the main feature is the rise in food prices. He said that the rise in the prices of grain, vegetables, eggs, cooking oil and instant noodles is rooted in the rise in food prices, which are the basis of all prices. Meat, milk and eggs are all transformed from grain, including wine. However, the reasons for the increase in vegetable prices are different from theirs. On the one hand, it is due to the influence of climate; On the other hand, in the process of accelerating industrialization and urbanization, a large amount of land is used for commercial and real estate purposes, resulting in a decrease in vegetable area. He said that the characteristics of this rise are not caused by shortage, but by excess liquidity. & gt& gt Analysis of the rising trend of prices can be divided into long-term and short-term. Zhou Wangjun said that some of the rising trends of prices are long-term and some are short-term. For example, the price of agricultural products will be a long-term upward trend due to the increase of land and labor costs, but the rise of vegetable prices is affected by climate, which is a short-term factor. The fundamental measure to solve this problem is to develop production. At present, China's grain is completely self-sufficient, with output exceeding demand, and individual surpluses and deficits are regulated by import and export. Many commodities in China are highly dependent on foreign countries, such as iron ore, soybeans, oilseeds, oil and copper. The dependence of oil on foreign countries is about 50%, and iron ore is higher. Zhou Wangjun said that this is really beyond the control of the government through domestic policies. With the development of national economic strength, it is necessary to strengthen China's right to speak on pricing in the international market, so as to influence the international market. He said that this is a long-term and arduous task for our country. & gt& gt Zhou Wangjun said that four measures should be taken to deal with the excessive rise in the prices of daily necessities. The first is to develop production, focusing on agricultural production. As long as the supply of agricultural products and basic consumer goods such as grain and pigs can be guaranteed, there will be a solid foundation to deal with inflation. Then through material allocation, import and export and other means to adjust, the supply is definitely no problem. Then it is necessary to provide appropriate subsidies to low-income groups, including urban and rural low-income groups and poor students from school families, and provide appropriate subsidies through financial channels so that their living standards will not be reduced because of rising prices. To prevent hot money from speculating on necessities of life, Zhou Wangjun said, first of all, it is not allowed to speculate on people's basic necessities of life, such as grain, oil and eggs. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the system, because the products that can be fried with hot money are definitely in short supply, such as garlic frying, because of the reduction in production and the gap between supply and demand of cotton. At the same time, it is necessary to establish a special mechanism to monitor the trend of hot money and strictly prevent it from entering the real economy, especially the market for residents' daily necessities. Reduce the cost of controlling circulation. Regarding the price of agricultural products, Zhou Wangjun said that the current vegetable circulation cost in China is relatively high, reaching 50% or even two-thirds. Radish with a origin of 90 cents was sold for 3 pieces at the consumer's table, changed hands five times, and the price was increased five times. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the turnover in circulation and encourage farmers to dock with supermarkets, that is, supermarkets purchase directly from farmers. At the same time, he suggested that farmers form vegetable cooperatives, and it would be much easier for a county to form a vegetable association and negotiate with several supermarket purchasing units. The problem of arbitrary charges should continue to be dealt with. He said that in many cities, for greening and beautifying, the prices of supermarkets are higher than those of roadside stalls. In addition, it is not the core landscape area of the city, so there is no need to "withdraw from the market and enter the supermarket". & gt& gt According to the data of the first three quarters, the economic growth rate is declining, while the price increase rate is accelerating, and the products involved in price increase are increasing. There is a view in society that China's economy may experience stagflation next year. Zhou Wangjun said that stagflation means that GDP has not increased, but prices are rising rapidly. China's GDP has increased by about 10% this year, and the CPI3% of 3% is a little over 3%. Judging from the current economic development situation and the demand of the whole market, this situation will never happen in China.