1929 10 us stock market crash.
It took 25 years for the bear market to return to its original index.
Churchill witnessed the prelude to the stock market crash.
Short selling exacerbated the development of the stock market crash.
Better late than never. Congress legislated to rectify the stock market.
New york Stock Exchange is the largest stock exchange in the world, and its Dow Jones index (and later Nasdaq technology stock index) is not only a barometer of the American economy, but also a barometer of most stock markets in the world.
1the stock market crash in June, 929 was never expected by American stock market investors or other stock market investors in the world at that time, that is,1September 3, 929 was the day when the average stock price was the highest. After the stock market crash, it took 25 spring and autumn for the stock price to recover to the highest level 1929.
Although China stock market has experienced several bear markets, it is only two or three years at most. It is hard to imagine how the long 25-year bear market survived. If we don't learn from the lessons of American stock market, who can guarantee that China stock market will follow in the footsteps of American history? Therefore, it is necessary to find out the main reasons for this stock market crash.
Fever causes disaster.
If it weren't for the stock market crash, the United States wouldn't have made up its mind to rectify the securities market, set up a securities regulatory commission, and promulgated one law after another on securities supervision. In other words, we finally realized that if we can't control the lawless fanaticism, the next scene must be the stock market crash.
The stock market crash originated from the stock market rise that swept across the United States. Since 1928, stock trading has become a national hobby. 10.2, 1929, 1929, the first trading day after the NYSE opened in the new year, bills flooded in. Share prices and trading volume rose rapidly. Blue-chip stocks such as General Electric rose by about $20, and other stock prices also rose by more than $5. The New York Times predicted that 1929 would be the most brilliant year for the American stock market.
In fact, before September of that year, the stock price had risen sharply, and more and more people participated in stock investment, both men, women and children were almost crazy. The taxi driver can't help but suggest that you buy that stock while driving. Even the children who shine shoes on the roadside can introduce you to the hot stocks of the day. People buy stocks only for short-term sale, not for long-term investment.
Writers G. Tochus and Morgan Witt wrote in the book "Inside the Great Depression 1929": "... the stock market boom poured into subway cars! A madman was angrily accused of not installing a teleprinter in every carriage ... his request was not too absurd. Because, in a factory in Boston, all workshops have big blackboards, and a clerk writes down the latest market of the exchange in chalk every hour. On a ranch in Texas, cowboys learn about the market every minute by turning on the tweeter of the radio. Loudspeakers have been installed in pastures and barns. "
At that time, American securities companies hired a large number of stock salesmen in the streets and alleys of cities, in towns and villages, in hundreds of small banks and in front of thousands of households, telling citizens and farmers the benefits of stock trading again and again, and then selling the shares bought by the boss's company in the secondary market to these retail investors who did not understand the market. The salesman gets a handling fee from every transaction, and the boss's company also benefits from it. Salesmen also sell bonds issued by foreign governments that have no repayment ability to ordinary people, but they never mention the word "risk".
In order to attract more women to enter the market, many securities brokers also set up "ladies' toilets", sometimes with simple free beauty salons. Here, female investors can learn the latest market from the big blackboard, and female investors have accounted for 20% of the total investor team.
Employees of listed companies have also become the most loyal investors on Wall Street. Companies' stock purchase plans increased sixfold from 19 15 to 1929, and one third of employees actively participated in stock trading.
In the unprecedented wave of speculation, the new york stock market rose again and again. Some excited financial analysts call it a "financial volcano". From the beginning of March 1928 to the beginning of September 1929, the growth rate of trading volume in the stock market was the same as that from the beginning of 1923 to 1928, and the prices of major industrial companies sometimes rose as high as 10 or 15 percentage points every day.
In fact, shortly before the crash, the stock market began to fall, and this wave of decline intensified from Saturday 10 and 19. However, due to a slight rebound on Tuesday, 22nd, small investors are no longer worried about Wednesday's stock market decline. Only full-time financiers (bankers, brokers, etc.). ) I was still in shock in the early morning of the 24th, anxiously waiting for the opening of the exchange 10. What makes them particularly uneasy is that depositors queue up in front of the bank to get information or withdraw deposits. And Alfred, the well-funded general manager of General Motors. Si Long also came to announce that "inflation has ended."
A stock market crash in the United States led to a 25-year bear market in the United States and the world, that is, it took1/4th century for the stock index to return to its price 25 years ago. Shocking, we certainly don't want the China stock market to go this way.
Churchill witnessed the prelude to the stock market crash.
10 year1October 24th is an unforgettable day in the history of American securities. Almost all members of NYSE 1 100 were present, more than 300 people than usual. As soon as the market opened, traders ran back and forth like crazy, but they still couldn't keep up with the decline in share prices. In just a few minutes, 6.5438+0.6 million shares were thrown, and all the good stocks and bad stocks were spared.
It is technically impossible to transmit the market in time, which further aggravates the trend. Telegrams and telephones transmit information so frequently that people are crowded that the exchange of messages is delayed for more than an hour. Therefore, the instructions given by Baltimore at 10: 30 will not be displayed on the wall street teletypewriter until 1 1: 30. As a result, everyone was scared.
Winston Churchill, who was then a journalist and later became the British Prime Minister, wrote a report based on his live interview and published it in the Daily Telegraph: "I saw these people ... selling several bundles of stocks automatically. These stocks have depreciated by half or two-thirds, but I haven't found anyone brave enough to accept this reliable wealth. This wealth was reluctantly sold by others. By 12, the loss has reached 6 billion dollars, and two bankers and one broker have committed suicide because of bankruptcy!
In the afternoon 1: 30, a man with a full face of pride and obvious depression hurried into the building at No.23 Wall Street (where Morgan Bank is located). He is Charles Michel, the president of the National City Bank, the most powerful bank in the world.
Faced with the avalanche-like stock market crash, Charles Michel quickly contacted some big bankers and organized a financial "joint venture" to buy stocks desperately, trying to stop the crazy decline.
That afternoon, although they didn't spend millions to buy shares in the exchange, the result was only a little drop. In the past, they only needed to spend a few dollars to buy some stocks to ease the decline, but this time they failed. Millions of dollars is a huge sum in 1929, but it's like a mud cow entering the sea.
Later, the number of accounts was shown on the bill: in just one afternoon, the number of shares sold was three times more than usual, which was unprecedented in history.
Four hours after the NYSE closed, this newspaper reported an amazing news: 12894650 shares were traded that day. This is what people later called "tragic Thursday".
Everyone is convinced that the difficult days have passed, and everyone is delighted with the good operation of the exchange on the 25th. However, it fell again on 26th, 28th and 29th, pushing the stock market crash to a climax.
Disaster is yet to come.
1929 101Tuesday, October 29th, in the morning10, the Wall Street Exchange opened for business. In the first three minutes of the opening, 650,000 shares of American steel company were ready to be sold at the price of $65,438+079 per share, but no buyer was found, while the quotation on the 24th was $205! The decline in the shares of American steel companies triggered a market crash. Westin's shares fell by $2 per minute, and ITT's shares fell by $65,438+07 in a quarter of an hour. By 10: 30, 3,259,800 shares were sold, with a loss of $2 billion.
From early September to165438+1mid-October, the total market value of NYSE lost 30 billion dollars. However, this is only the beginning of disaster. The stock market crash brought the most destructive Great Depression and great crisis in American history, which paralyzed the American economy. Banks that used residents' personal deposits to speculate in stocks closed down one after another: in 0929, 65438+659, 1930, 1352, 193 1 2294. The gross national income dropped from 88 billion yuan in 1929 to 40 billion dollars in 1932. The Dow Jones index of 30 industrial stocks fell from the highest point of 452 1929 in September to 58 1932 on July 8. The famous general electric stock dropped from the highest of 396 yuan to 8 dollars. The face value of stocks and various bonds has fallen by 90%. Countless millionaires went bankrupt. Some people who lost hope of survival finally went to a dead end.
Short selling exacerbated the development of the stock market crash.
This stock market crash is also related to the credit trading of stocks, that is, shorting. Investors borrow money from brokers, and the interest rate depends on the liquidity in the market. Investors keep the stocks they bought in the brokerage firm as the guarantee for borrowing, and then sell them after the stock price rises. Investors get the difference and pay interest to the brokerage company. The risk of this kind of credit transaction is quite high. Once investors make mistakes in judgment, the stock price does not rise but falls, and brokers demand an increase in margin. If the investor can't come up with so much money, he has to sell the stock, which is called decapitation. As a result, a large number of stocks flooded into the market, accelerating the decline of stock prices.
Better late than never. Congress legislated to rectify the stock market.
The total collapse of the securities market gave the United States a great shock. The U.S. Congress quickly investigated the securities market and found that there were a lot of artificially manipulated speculation in securities trading, and a large number of well-documented facts caused the call for strict management of the market.
1929, the collapse of the American securities market and its harm to the whole economy forced the American government to strictly manage the securities market legally and formulate a set of feasible securities laws, including: 1933 (mainly for the issuance market); 1934 securities trading law (mainly formulated for the trading market); 1935 shareholding company law; Trust deed method of 1939; 1940 investment company law; 1940 investment advisory law and 1970 securities investor protection, etc. These laws were later perfected through a large number of supplementary clauses and regulations, thus buying a strict management network for the American securities market.
There has been no stock market crash in 42 years.
Another global stock market turmoil.
During the 42 years from the end of World War II in 1945 to 1987, the operation of the world stock market was relatively normal, that is to say, there was no catastrophic fluctuation. So people began to be paralyzed, and the stock market crash like 1929 is gone forever.
However, in the middle of June of 1987+00, Wall Street took the lead in setting off a global stock market crash, which made people unprepared. Especially the United States itself, because at that time, the number of investors participating in stock market transactions in the United States accounted for 1/4 of the national population.
On Monday, 1987, 10, 19, at 7: 30 in the morning, John Film, the chairman of new york Stock Exchange, came to the office, and the staff on duty in the marketing department gave him a report on receiving orders in the computer automatic trading program; The number of shares is close to 1 100 million, and most of them are sold. The person on duty exclaimed, "I have never seen so many orders in my life, as if no one in the world bought them!" " After the stock prices of 10, 14 and 16 plunged in June, they received too many orders, which was somewhat unexpected.
When the exchange officially opened at 9: 30, it could not be officially opened due to the serious imbalance between buying and selling. Film immediately asked someone to calculate the situation of IBM, which has 3 million shareholders. This is the hottest stock in the market. In the past, the price fluctuated only within 15 USD, and occasionally fluctuated to 35 cents. At that time, the quotation was dumbfounded, and it fell by 10 dollars compared with last Friday.
Film made a decisive decision and invited the chairmen of more than a dozen of the largest securities companies on Wall Street to attend the meeting at 10 o'clock sharp, asking their opinions on whether they could insist on opening the market. The situation at that time was that if they insisted on opening the market, all stock prices would continue to fall, and professional stock dealers (that is, bookmakers) could only buy but not sell, and soon there would be no capital turnover; If we want to stop the market, it will make people lose confidence in the market even more, and the consequences will be even more unpredictable. The directors unanimously decided to insist on opening the market.
10: 30, all the shares of the exchange opened. The quotation shows that the Dow Jones index fell more than 100 points. Everyone in the communication realized that this was just the beginning of bad luck. No one has experienced such a scene. At most, they know a little about the great crisis of 1929 from books. Therefore, no one knows what to do except recording data.
10: 45, the stock price fell to nearly 2000 points, which is people's psychological support point at this time. 1 1, the index rebounded to 2 100, and many people breathed a sigh of relief.
Just after the slight rebound, a senior official said something stupid.
Facing the crisis of new york stock market, David Lourdes, the newly appointed chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, delivered a speech at1L. When answering a reporter's question, he euphemistically said: "The possibility of short suspension of the market to deal with the imbalance of orders is not ruled out." He probably didn't expect that when these words spread to space through Reuters's radio waves and returned to the ground, euphemistic words turned into "blockbusters", and the stock market that just saw a glimmer of life set off a new wave of crazy selling. After 1: 30, institutional investors who bought stocks with pension funds, mutual funds and insurance funds also joined the ranks of selling. Under the bombardment of this huge amount of heavy artillery, the already precarious index fell to 1900.
The last line of defense collapsed, and the crazy stock market fell into cold water like a boiling oil pan. The whole thing exploded and the cries of selling were deafening. What is even more frightening is that the computer automatic quotation system is overwhelmed. The quotation shows that it is 80 to 100 minutes later than the trading time. No one knows whether the computer designed according to the trading volume of 600 million shares can withstand this impact, and no one knows where the price will fall.
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Talking nonsense, telling lies, or telling the truth at inappropriate times will all go wrong, especially those in high positions.
500 billion dollars a day, equivalent to 1/4 of the US GDP.
After closing at 4 o'clock, after several hours of statistics, the closing price of the Dow Jones index dropped from the opening point of 2247.06 to 1738. 74 points, down 508.32 points, or 22.6%, making it the biggest drop in the strong stock market since World War I.. This decline far exceeds the decline of1October 28th 1929 12.8%. On this day alone, the market value of the stocks lost by the United States is 500 billion, which is equivalent to the GNP of the United States or France in one year 1/8.
On this day, all the historical records of NYSE were rewritten: 800 million shares were traded, which was more than three times the average daily turnover of 1987; The number of orders received is 470 thousand. The average number of times per second is 2 1, while the daily average of that year is 654380+044000, with an average of 7 times per second.
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Compared with Americans playing the stock market, China people are still dwarfed, but at present, the China stock market is far less standardized, open, fair and just than the US stock market 1987. If you don't do it well, it is not uncommon for an apprentice to overtake a master and cause disaster.
If there is a problem with the stock market, it is not a problem of embezzlement and misappropriation of hundreds of millions. You see, kid, after six hours of trading, it fell by 500 billion dollars, equivalent to 1/4 of the US GDP.
Playing with fire and stocks?
Inducing the world to trigger a stock market crash.
After the market closed, the film held a press conference. He announced that the market would continue to open tomorrow, and then told reporters with a heavy tone: "The exchange almost collapsed."
The next day, all kinds of American newspapers were covered with black banners with the title: "October Massacre!" " ","the blood of wall street! " "Black Week" and "Dow Jones Crash!" "The storm swept the stock market! " ……
10 10 19, not only the U.S. stock market plummeted, but also major financial markets around the world saw a stock selling frenzy. In Europe, the London Financial Times Index 1987 10 10/0/9 fell 183. 70 points, down 10. 1%, also the biggest drop in a single day; Credit Suisse's index fell 1 1. 3%; The Federal Republic of Germany is 3.7%; France is 6. 1%; The Netherlands is 7. 8%; Belgium is 10. 5%。 In Asia, the average share price index of Nihon Keizai Shimbun in Tokyo, Japan, fell by 620 points, or 2. After 35%, it fell by 3,800 points on the 20th, namely 14. 6%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 420 points to 19. 8 1 min, namely 1 1. 12%, Singapore Straits Times Index fell on June 9 12. 15%; Australia's all common stock index 19 fell by 80. 20 o'clock, that is, 3 o'clock. After 74%, it fell by 24 on the 20th. 9%。 Stock markets in Brazil and Mexico also fell by more than 20%. The global financial market is full of dangers.
The stock market plummeted and the local government took action to save the market. Hong Kong immediately announced that the stock market would be closed for four days. The United States announced restrictions on the use of computer-controlled transactions, the Reagan administration announced the reduction of preferential interest rates for banks, and the Federal Reserve Board promised to provide sufficient funds to commercial banks to reduce the fiscal deficit; France announced the reduction of long-term interest rates. Due to a series of rescue measures, new york, London and other stock markets generally rebounded, and new york Dow Jones Industrial Average once again hit the 2000 mark. However, when the Gulf War broke out on October 22nd, 65438/KLOC-0, the stock market fell back.
65438+1October 26th, the second Monday. On the first day of the opening of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index plunged 1 12 1 point, a decrease of 33. 3%, a record high in Hong Kong. Tokyo Nikkei index plunged 1096 points, which was the third day of the biggest one-day decline in the history of Tokyo stock market. Asian stock markets plunged back to Europe and the United States, causing the European and American stock markets to plummet again. New york Dow Jones index fell to 1793.93, down 8%, Paris fell 7%, Zurich fell 10% and Frankfurt fell 10%, which is the so-called second "Black Monday".
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What are the advantages and disadvantages of economic globalization and stock market globalization?
At least we can get some enlightenment from the western stock markets, led by the American stock market, which have fallen into disaster one after another.
Don't be superstitious about integration, and don't be opinionated. What is important is to be practical and in line with the interests of the majority of China people, not the interests of a few China people or most foreigners.
The characteristics and reasons of this stock market crash
This stock price crash has three characteristics: first, it is fierce and unprecedented; Second, the overall decline in losses is huge; Third, it has spread all over the world and has a fierce impact.
What is the cause of diarrhea? According to experts, scholars and stock market veterans, after more than ten years of repeated discussions, debates and quarrels, the following four painful lessons have finally been drawn:
First, the overheating of the stock market and the increasing "virtualization" of the American economy are the reasons for the stock market crash.
Economic "virtualization" refers to the phenomenon of decoupling financial capital from physical capital in social and economic operation. After the war, especially in the last decade, in the development of American stock economy, the economic "virtualization" is reflected in the increasingly loose relationship between stock prices and economic conditions.
Since 1982, the international financial market has been flooded with hot money, which has impacted the money market and the stock market. Speculation in the stock market is rampant day by day, and the stock market climbs upward at an extremely abnormal speed, so that the growth rate of the stock price greatly exceeds the economic growth rate, and the stock price is seriously out of touch with economic development.
The global stock price crash broke out after overvaluation, extremely high stock price, overheated stock market, long-term prevalence of short selling and short selling, and accumulated contradictions. Take the Chase Jones Industrial Stock Index of the United States as an example. American Dow Jones Industrial Average 10 month 1 day 1928 10. After 43 years of ups and downs, it broke through the 1972 mark and then oscillated, 65438. At 4 o'clock 1983 rose to 1 190.3. Although 1984 fell to 1 178, since 1985, with the recovery of American economy, the stock market has become increasingly prosperous and the wind of stock speculation has prevailed.
From June 1982 to September 1987, the American industrial production index only increased by 30. 5%, and the US stock price soared from 776.9 points in August 1982 to 2.42 points in August 25 1987, which is nearly three times. This abnormal surge in stock prices shows that there are many speculative factors in securities trading, and as long as something goes wrong, the collapse is inevitable.
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In 2003, China people began to talk about the so-called "virtual economy". Some people who have stayed abroad are not idle people. People who listen often seem to understand, but they don't understand, which makes them feel amazing. How can you fold a dollar several times? So they started dreaming again.
Of course, some minds, not those who are completely confused, will react immediately: what if they lose money? Just like playing margin foreign exchange futures in the 1990s, it is also losing several times. Even if the mice at home are dug up and sold, they can't pay their debts!
After reading the history above, you may not be able to begin to understand immediately. But at least, let us understand that virtual things, as an objective form of economic expression and as a kind of knowledge, are understandable, but we must never learn what the West has failed on a whim with a little knowledge.
Second, the US fiscal and trade deficits remain high, domestic and foreign debts are increasing, and the long-term weakening of the US dollar exchange rate and rising interest rates are the direct reasons for this stock market crash.
Since 1982, while the American economy has continued to pick up, the instability of economic development has become increasingly serious, which is manifested as "four highs", namely, high fiscal deficit, high trade deficit, high national debt and high foreign debt.
The trade deficit is widening. From 1982, the trade deficit of the United States rose sharply, from 1982 to $42.6 billion, and reached169.8 billion in 1986, an increase of nearly four times in four years. 1987, the U.S. government intends to reduce the foreign trade deficit of 20 billion U.S. dollars, resulting in 1987+65438+ 10 and August. The trade deficit of the United States reached 1 14 1 billion dollars, exceeding the level of 1986 in the same period. The US government has reduced the trade deficit and trade.
The fiscal deficit is increasing year by year. After Reagan took office, in order to revive the American economy and armament, he implemented the policy of reducing taxes and expanding military spending, which led to an unprecedented increase in the federal fiscal deficit, and now it has exceeded one trillion dollars, of which11billion dollars in the fiscal year of 1986, and the figure of 1987 was 1480 according to the government.
The national debt has increased sharply. In order to make up for the huge fiscal deficit, the US government had to issue bonds in the open market to raise funds, resulting in a rapid increase in the amount of national debt. At the end of 1980, it was only more than 930 billion dollars, and at the end of 1986, it was 2.2 trillion dollars.
Foreign debt surged. From the first half of 1985, the United States finally lost its position as an international net creditor in 7 1 year, and soon became the largest international net debtor in the world. At the end of 1986, the net international debt of the United States was 1074 billion US dollars, which increased rapidly to 263.6 billion US dollars.
In addition, in order to prevent the dollar from falling, control inflation and attract foreign investment, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States announced on September 4 that it would reduce the discount rate from 5. 5% to 6%, followed by some big commercial banks in the United States, which reduced the preferential interest rate from 8. 7.5% to 9.25%, the increase of interest rate means that entrepreneurs will reduce their investment in enterprises in the future, which makes stock traders eager to sell stocks to preserve their value and convert them into cash and deposits to get dividends.
The above factors interact with each other, making Americans panic and forming a "confidence crisis" on the economic prospects of the United States, thus leading to a false and overheated stock market frenzy.
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The background of this stock market crash is related to the four highs: high fiscal deficit, high trade deficit, high national debt and high foreign debt.
The inducing factors are: the tension in the Gulf and the intensification of economic friction between the United States, Japan and Europe.
The fuse was lit by the financial executives.
At present, China has not had a high trade deficit, and all the other three highs have contributed. With the appreciation of RMB, the high trade deficit is just around the corner. Just like Japan was cheated by the United States a few years ago, the yen appreciated and the economy was completely humiliated.
The competent financial departments should seriously understand the principle of "taking the lead and moving the whole body", thoroughly understand "governing by doing nothing", and do less things for quick success and instant benefit, which is positive on the surface and seemingly lively.
Third, computer program control, portfolio insurance and stock arbitrage are the technical reasons for the stock market crash.
As we all know, in this information age, computers have penetrated into every corner of American economic life, and the stock market is no exception. Since the end of 1960s, in order to speed up and facilitate stock trading, major American stock exchanges have gradually implemented computer program control on stock trading. The decision to buy, hold and sell stocks is controlled by a pre-programmed computer program. The computer tracks and analyzes the fluctuation of the stock index and makes corresponding buying or selling decisions.
When the stock index rises to a certain level, the computer will automatically issue instructions to buy stocks; When the stock index falls to a certain level, the computer will issue a sell order. Therefore, as long as the market price fluctuates carelessly, the program transaction will play a role in fueling the situation. 101October 19, the new york stock exchange opened at 9: 30 a.m. to 1 1 00, and the Dow Jones industrial average dropped from 2,250 to 2,025, a drop of 10%, which was a breakthrough. As a result, computers have issued selling instructions. The massive selling of stocks made the stock index fall further, and the computer issued a new selling instruction.
In such a vicious circle, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 1738 at 4pm ... It was precisely because of the computer program control that the stock market plummeted, so the new york Stock Exchange informed all securities investment companies to stop using the computer system on1October 20th 10 to avoid further stock market plunging.
The second technical reason for the US stock market crash is portfolio insurance. The so-called portfolio insurance means that securities investment companies buy and sell stock futures contracts to ensure that their investments will not lose money when the stock price falls. Stock futures contract refers to the agreement reached by buyers and sellers to deliver a certain stock at a fixed price at a certain date in the future.
When the stock price rises, there will be losses when selling futures contracts; When the stock price falls, it will be profitable to sell futures contracts. Because the price of stock futures changes in the opposite direction, securities investment companies can make the price of futures change in the opposite direction by buying and selling term loan contracts. Therefore, securities investment companies can offset the gains and losses of futures contracts with the rise and fall of stock prices by buying and selling futures contracts, thus achieving the purpose of insurance.
How did portfolio insurance contribute to the stock market crash?
On the morning of October 9th, 65438/kloc-0, in order to avoid losses caused by holding stocks in the future, securities investment companies sold off a large number of stock futures contracts in the stock term loan market, which led to a decline in the price of stock futures contracts. In turn, the stock futures market crash exacerbated the stock market crash. This chain reaction caused extreme panic and chaos in the stock market, which eventually led to an unprecedented plunge in the US stock market.
The third technical reason for the collapse of US stocks is stock arbitrage. Stock arbitrage refers to the behavior of buying and selling spot and futures in the spot market and futures market at the same time by using the price difference between spot and futures loans to obtain huge profits. Why is there a price difference between stock loans and futures? Traditionally, you only need to pay a deposit of 10% to buy stock futures. In this way, investors with fixed-term loans can invest excess funds (90%) in short-term treasury bonds before the futures contracts expire, and earn extra interest income.
65438+ 10 19 The selling wind in the stock futures money market makes the price of stock futures far lower than the spot price of stocks. Seeing that it is profitable, many arbitrageurs buy a large number of futures contracts cheaply in the futures market and sell stocks in the spot market at the same time. As mentioned above, securities investment companies sell a lot of futures contracts in order to avoid the loss of holding stocks in the future. Therefore, although arbitrageurs buy a lot of futures, they still can't make the stock futures market rebound. On the other hand, arbitrageurs sold a lot of stocks in the spot market, which further aggravated the stock spot crash.
Fourth, the tension in the Gulf and the intensified economic friction between the United States, Japan and Europe are the inducing factors for this stock price crash.
In response to Iran's missile attack on an American-flagged oil tanker in Kuwaiti waters, the United States attacked two Iranian offshore platforms at the beginning of 5438+ 10. The new tension in the Gulf situation and the further involvement of the United States have also affected investors' investment in the stock market and turned their funds to gold and other currency markets.
Since 1982, while the US foreign trade deficit has remained high, the foreign trade surpluses of Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany have increased sharply. During the period of 1982- 1986, the foreign trade balance of the United States was $553.5 billion, the trade surplus of Japan was 1907 billion, and that of the Federal Republic of Germany was 184 billion. The imbalance of trade balance leads to the intensification of economic contradictions between the United States, Japan and Western Europe.
When the stock markets in the United States and the world are in turmoil, the United States has repeatedly asked the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan to implement economic expansion policies to stimulate consumption and lower interest rates in order to reduce the trade deficit.
People lost confidence in the propaganda that "the international economy has been promoted because it entered the era of coordination", which soon caused a large-scale stock selling in new york market and started a wave of stock market crash.
Comments:
War and peace, surplus and deficit have always been the most sensitive factors in financial markets and the cause of the storm. There is no smoke without fire.
Why will it cause a chain reaction in the international stock market?
This is because the United States is the largest consumer market in the world, and the decline of the stock market will inevitably have a certain impact on economic growth. All countries, especially Japan and the four little dragons in Asia, take the United States as their main market. When the American market is depressed, the products of these countries and regions will return to unsalable state. People will find that the prospects of local products are not good for a long time, so they will throw out stocks related to the United States. This is also one of the reasons why the US stock market affects stock markets everywhere. This reason is not very direct. therefore