Factors affecting futures price changes
1. Market supply and demand relationship
Generally speaking, for supply, the increase of commodity supply will lead to the decline of price, and the decrease of supply will lead to the increase of price; As far as demand is concerned, an increase in commodity demand will lead to an increase in prices, while a decrease in demand will lead to a decrease in prices.
2. Climate and weather
Some futures products, such as agricultural and sideline products such as soybeans, both spot prices and futures prices will be affected by climate and weather factors.
3. Policy factors
For some futures, it is seriously affected by national policies, such as guiding the purchase price, planting subsidies, purchasing and storage policies, etc. If the state raises the guiding purchase price, it will definitely increase the price; Increasing the purchasing and storage rate will reduce the market supply and increase the price.
4. Holiday
Some futures prices are also affected by holiday factors. When these products enter the period of vigorous consumption on holidays, the prices are often higher; On the contrary, it will fall.
5. International futures market linkage
With the development of international integration, the interaction between the prices of the world's major futures markets is also increasing. Spot prices in various countries and regions have a strong correlation with international futures prices, and domestic futures prices and international prices have a certain convergence in the changing trend.
6. International and domestic political and economic situation
The prosperity of the world economy is one of the important factors that determine the price of commodity futures. When the economy is prosperous, health
The expansion of production and active trade have led to the increase of commodity demand and promoted the rise of futures prices; On the contrary, it will fall.
Changes in the domestic economic situation, especially in the main indicators of the national economy, will directly affect the changes in the futures prices of agricultural products. When the domestic consumption index is high, investors should consider the future trend; When the national macro-economy is loose, the social development is stable and the capital supply is relatively loose, it not only accelerates the economic development, but also increases the capital invested in the futures market, and vice versa.
7. Economic cycle
Economic cycle is the basic feature of market economy, which generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. In the economic cycle, fluctuations in economic activities occur in almost all economic sectors. Affected by this, the price of futures will also fluctuate. Macroscopically, the economic cycle is one of the most important factors.
8. Other factors
Some unexpected events, such as avian flu and SARS, will have a certain impact on the market price; Changes in interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rates, consumption habits, transportation costs and other factors will also have a certain impact on futures prices; Speculative forces, market changes and psychological factors often affect the trend of futures prices.
Characteristics of futures price formation
High quality combined information
The formation process of futures price is a process of continuously collecting information, inputting information and generating price, and the quality of information determines the authenticity of futures price. Because most participants in futures trading are familiar with a commodity market, they have rich business knowledge, extensive information channels and a set of scientific analysis and prediction methods. They bring their own information, experience and methods to the market, judge, analyze and predict the supply-demand relationship and price trend of commodities in combination with their own production costs and expected profits, and report their ideal prices to compete with many competitors. The futures price formed in this way actually reflects the prediction of most people, which is authoritative and can truly reflect the changing trend of supply and demand.
Openness of price report
The price reporting system of the futures exchange stipulates that the price of each new transaction reached by the exchange should be reported to the members and their floor brokers in time and made public. Through developed media, traders can know the trading situation and price changes in the futures market in time, judge the price trend in time and further adjust their trading behavior. This constant adjustment of price expectation is finally reflected in futures prices, which further improves the authenticity of futures prices.
Futures price expectation
Futures contract is a kind of price signal that constantly reflects the relationship between supply and demand and its changing trend. Futures contracts change hands frequently, so that the emerging prices can constantly reflect the supply and demand situation and changes in the market.
Futures trading is highly transparent.
The futures market follows the principles of openness, fairness and justice. Trading orders are arranged in a highly organized futures exchange, and all futures contracts must be bought and sold in the futures exchange for public bidding, and over-the-counter trading is not allowed. The free quotation and open competition of the exchange avoid the fraud and monopoly that are easy to occur in one-to-one spot trading.
Centralized supply and demand, strong market liquidity
There are many participants in futures trading, such as commodity producers, sellers, processors, importers and exporters and a large number of speculators. These hedgers and speculators gather together to compete through brokers, and the market liquidity of futures contracts is greatly enhanced, which overcomes the limitation of insufficient liquidity in the spot trading market and helps to form prices.