Today's gold market can be divided into commodity market and financial market. The trading volume of commodity physical gold is less than 3% of the total trading volume, and more than 90% of the market share is financial derivatives of gold. In other words, the trading of gold financial derivatives is the mainstream of the market. At present, the gold market in China is still in the stage of physical transaction.
Take Shanghai Gold Exchange as an example. As the only gold exchange in China, in 2005, its annual gold trading volume exceeded 900 tons, and the trading amount exceeded 654.38+000 billion yuan for the first time. However, compared with London Gold Market, the largest gold market in the world, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange is less than 1%, and the average daily settlement volume of London Gold Market in 2005 is as high as 7.383 billion US dollars. If nothing else, the Shanghai Gold Exchange is an on-site transaction, and it is mainly based on physical gold. The London gold market, on the other hand, is an over-the-counter transaction, and its gold spot deferred delivery trading model has attracted a large number of institutional and individual investors to participate, because it has created the most active gold market in the world.
However, the transactions of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are mainly among members, and the members are mainly gold-using enterprises, generally industrial gold. Therefore, the transaction is mainly to buy physical gold, accounting for more than 99.8% of all transactions, and mainly engaged in spot transactions for production and use. Without the participation of institutions and individuals with investment purposes, the price fluctuation range and elasticity are poor, which is reflected in the fact that when the international gold price fluctuates greatly, the domestic gold price changes relatively backward and there are certain arbitrage opportunities.
In addition, the gold market in China is a relatively closed market, and the overseas members of the gold exchange have to undergo strict examination and approval. At present, there are 1 members of Sino-foreign joint ventures and 12 customers of wholly foreign-owned and Sino-foreign joint ventures. In 2005, the total amount of gold bought and sold by this kind of members and customers was 9,427 kg, accounting for only 1.04% of the total transaction amount of the exchange. The lack of participation of international quotation agencies leads to the domestic gold market price can not fully integrate with the international market, and sometimes even deviate.
With the development of China's gold investment market, many investors are no longer satisfied with only matching transactions in the market. Many gold investors turned their attention to gold market makers. With the price of gold rising step by step in recent years, the domestic gold market is getting hotter and hotter, and domestic gold market makers are booming. Although the laws and regulations on the gold market maker system are still blank, the gold market maker trading system will surely take root and develop in China. Referring to the development of London's gold market, the gold market maker system can make up for the deficiency of the current domestic exchange trading model, provide more trading liquidity for the gold market and promote the prosperity of China's gold market.
China has become the fourth largest gold producer and the third largest gold consumer in the world, but the per capita annual gold consumption in China is only about 0.26 grams, far below the world average of 0.7 grams, which reflects the great potential of China's gold investment market. We believe that the future of China's gold market lies in vigorously developing gold derivatives, connecting with international standards and becoming a major international gold market. There is only one way ahead, that is, "walking on two legs"-both off-exchange trading and on-exchange trading can be done. Among them, floor trading is to develop gold futures and options, close to new york and Tokyo; Over-the-counter trading is mainly based on spot deferred delivery, similar to London gold market and Zurich gold market.
As far as floor trading is concerned, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has a single variety of transactions and an imperfect trading mechanism: physical gold has a high transaction cost and does not have the function of being an investment tool; Although the AU(T+D) trading model has the nature of "quasi-gold futures", it is still not perfect and far from the real margin trading and short selling mechanism. On the other hand, in the major international gold markets, the mainstream variety of on-site trading is gold futures. From the New York Mercantile Exchange to Tokyo Industrial Exchange, its gold futures varieties guide the market's positioning and expectation of gold prices.
At present, there is no timetable for the listing of gold futures, but it is not far away. Whether listed on the Shanghai Gold Exchange or the newly established China Financial Derivatives Exchange, we can't miss the historic opportunity in the face of the current excellent opportunity. On the basis of gold futures, a series of derivative products will be gradually introduced, including options, forwards, gold ETFs and even more innovative products, which will further increase the depth and breadth of China's gold market.
On the other hand, the importance of OTC market cannot be ignored. Judging from the development track of the international gold market, the trading volume of the OTC market accounts for nearly 90% of the whole gold market. As far as the London gold market is concerned, there is no fixed trading place, and its trading consists of "invisible ways"-the interconnection between the five major gold merchants and the customer network; Zurich gold market has no formal organizational structure, mainly through the three major Swiss banks for customers to buy and sell, and is responsible for liquidation.
The future development of China gold market will also follow this trajectory. A large number of transactions will be completed through the OTC market, and the market price will be dominated by powerful market makers. Among them, commercial banks or professional gold banks like the three major Swiss banks, as well as some professional gold investment institutions with brand influence, will become the main body of market makers.
We believe that after more than ten or twenty years of development, China gold market will gradually become the dominant international gold market. First of all, gold futures, options, gold passbooks, paper gold, gold EFT, gold forward and other products are constantly introduced and gradually improved. Secondly, the extensive participation of market participants. As an investment and financial market, the gold market not only attracts a large number of domestic institutions and individuals to join, but also opens the door for international big banks and big gold merchants to participate together, thus gradually connecting with other international gold markets. We are convinced that the gold market will become the fourth largest financial investment market in China besides the stock, futures and foreign exchange markets.
2. Development trend of platinum market:
Japan-the revived platinum market
As we all know, Japan is the world's largest platinum jewelry consumer market, and its share in the market is also increasing year by year. 1994 The total sales of various precious metals was 36.286 million pieces, of which 2 1% were platinum jewelry; Although the "bubble economy" burst after 1997 also affected the jewelry industry, the total sales of precious metals in 1999 dropped to 22.8 million pieces, but the sales of platinum jewelry rose to 34% of the total. At present, the trend of Japanese platinum jewelry market has undergone some minor changes, and the sales of traditional rings have declined slightly, including wedding rings and non-wedding rings; The sales of necklaces, bracelets and earrings are all on the rise, and young people's love for rings is also increasing, thus promoting the sales of POSY.
America-rapid economic growth
The rapid growth of American economy has created favorable conditions for the development of jewelry. The number of manufacturers targeting the domestic market continues to increase. The strong purchasing power of the United States has increased its jewelry imports from Italy, China and India, while the consumption from western China is also increasing.
In the next five years, the overall trend of jewelry development will still show a positive trend, because the strong American economy has created the purchasing power of luxury goods, and more and more consumers are eager for the value and eternal quality of jewelry. It is predicted that the growth rate of jewelry will remain at 7% in the next five years, and the demand for white metal will continue to grow. Reflected in the platinum market, the wedding market will continue to grow, and other jewelry (pendants, chains and necklaces) will also expand.
Italy-platinum exports continue to grow.
As a big jewelry producer, Italy's platinum exports continue to grow, mainly necklaces. The United States is their main necklace export market, and also provides products to Hongkong and Chinese mainland. Nowadays, platinum jewelry has become an important member of the jewelry family. Platinum has promoted the white tide and become an important member of it, occupying a certain share in the wedding jewelry market. At present, the industrialization of platinum jewelry in Italy is orderly, and platinum designs, like platinum jewelry and gold, are exported abroad.
Germany-Opportunities for Platinum Development
Germany's developed commercial development, strong consumption potential of consumers and the open consumption of the younger generation all provide positive opportunities for the development of platinum. 40% consumers in Germany like classic traditional designs, which is in line with the meaningful brilliance of platinum, and the newly-started marriage market industry provides a small but important opportunity. Therefore, the sales of platinum in Germany increased by 96% from 1994 to 1998.
China-the fastest growing platinum jewelry market in the world.
China is the fastest growing platinum jewelry market in the world, and its share in the world increased from 65438+ 1% in193 to 33% in199, making it the second largest platinum market in the world. China is a country with a long tradition of wearing jewelry. The arrival of platinum has brought new ideas and new business opportunities to jewelry manufacturers and retailers. The large-scale production of platinum jewelry in China began at 1995-96, and now there are many platinum jewelry processing enterprises with a certain scale, especially in southern China. At present, the domestic platinum jewelry market is mainly divided into two parts-ordinary platinum jewelry and inlaid platinum jewelry, among which ordinary platinum jewelry accounts for a large proportion.
Although China's platinum market started late, it has developed rapidly, the number of retailers is increasing, the distribution of platinum jewelry is good, and the advertising investment is increasing, but the sales training and sales of sales staff just need to be strengthened. In the consumer market, it is currently distributed in Shanghai and surrounding areas, as well as Beijing and Northeast China; At the same time, however, due to the influence of this trend, the southwest region has shown a rapid growth momentum, and the southern market has also shown signs of increasing.
Platinum advertisements were launched in Shanghai from September 1997, and the Shanghai office of the International Platinum Association was formally established in March 1998. In the same year, the promotion activities were extended to Beijing and Hangzhou. During 1999, large-scale promotion activities of "Elegant Covenant" and "Platinum Autumn Brilliance" were held. At the end of the same year, the whole promotion activity developed to Shenyang, Nanjing, Dalian and other cities. In particular, the platinum POSY series, which was launched across the century, introduced a brand-new jewelry concept to the China market and provided new business opportunities for the majority of merchants.
After several years of promotion, the impression of "platinum temperament, natural elegance" and the characteristics of platinum "rare, pure and tough" have touched the hearts of consumers. Especially for young consumers, platinum has become a jewelry fashion in their minds, and it is most easily accepted by young people with certain income and higher education. According to the market survey results in Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Dalian, Chengdu and Wuhan in the spring of 2000, consumers' love for white jewelry has surpassed that of traditional jewelry, and they continue to think that platinum is the most attractive precious metal, and they are paying more and more attention to jewelry design. The International Platinum Association is not only committed to promoting platinum jewelry, but also builds a bridge to communicate with foreign counterparts. 1999 and 2000 held a lecture on platinum jewelry design and a lecture on platinum jewelry making in Shanghai respectively, which provided a stage for exchanges between China and foreign countries.
Today, the platinum jewelry market in China will continue to grow, and the jewelry industry is full of confidence in the future of the platinum market. From the perspective of consumer market, the target consumers of platinum jewelry have stable income, and they will continue to follow the "white tide". In the long run, if China joins WTO, imported jewelry will become a potential competitor.