I methods for forecasting and analyzing short-term exchange rate changes and exchange rate trends
To make a correct forecast and analysis of exchange rate changes, there are two tasks: collecting exchange rate risk information and making a correct analysis according to the basic factors affecting exchange rate. Among them, information collection, foreign-related enterprises can obtain important risk information from banks, international information companies, financial reputation evaluation companies and even some important international media according to their own business relationships. Collecting exchange rate risk information requires authenticity, timeliness and usefulness.
Secondly, to make a correct forecast of exchange rate changes, it is important to grasp the basic factors that affect exchange rate changes and make a correct forecast of exchange rate changes according to the influencing factors of exchange rate changes. Foreign exchange risk can be divided into short-term foreign exchange risk and long-term foreign exchange risk. Among them, the short-term foreign exchange risk is caused by the temporary change of exchange rate caused by short-term factors in the foreign exchange market. Among the short-term factors of exchange rate, the capital account of balance of payments has a great influence. Because in the foreign exchange market, people trade foreign exchange as a financial asset, its scale is much larger than that derived from international trade in goods and services, and the trading speed of financial assets is much faster than that of actual goods, so the trading of financial assets has to have a huge impact on the short-term fluctuation of exchange rate. The changes that cause the balance of payments capital account transactions mainly include the following factors:
1, money supply. With the rapid growth of a country's money supply, if the public holds more money than they are willing to hold, the surplus will overflow abroad, which will lead to capital outflow and the decline of the country's exchange rate. On the contrary, the country's exchange rate will rise.
2. Interest rate. When the interest rates of other countries remain unchanged, a country's rising interest rate will make its financial assets more attractive to domestic and foreign investors, which will lead to capital inflow and exchange rate appreciation. If the interest rate falls, it will lead to a decline in the exchange rate.
3. Psychological factors. Some international foreign exchange experts believe that the expectation psychology of foreign exchange traders for a certain currency is the most important factor to determine the short-term exchange rate of this currency. Because under the action of this expectation psychology, a large-scale capital movement will be induced in the blink of an eye. Generally speaking, the expected psychological changes of foreign exchange traders are random and unpredictable. Therefore, it is very important for exchange rate risk managers to be vigilant at any time, pay attention to all kinds of important events that affect the changes of international political and economic situation, and make predictions on exchange rate reactions.
4. Government intervention. At present, in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market, governments often intervene in foreign exchange transactions in various ways. The foreign exchange market can be adjusted internationally through the open business of the foreign exchange market, the different collocation of fiscal and monetary policies, the public comments of government officials, and the joint intervention between countries. Although government intervention cannot change the long-term trend of exchange rate changes, it has a great influence on the short-term changes of exchange rate. Therefore, for short-term risk identification, government intervention is a factor that cannot be ignored.
Long-term foreign exchange risk is caused by long-term exchange rate changes. Long-term factors affecting exchange rate changes mainly include:
1, current account of balance of payments. The balance of payments is a comprehensive reflection of a country's foreign economic activities and has a direct impact on the exchange rate changes of a country's currency. In the current account of balance of payments, the most important item is trade, including visible trade and invisible trade, which determine the basic trend of exchange rate changes. Looking at the trade part of the current account of the balance of payments, when a country's imports increase or produce a deficit, it will generate additional demand for foreign currency, which will cause the exchange rate of its currency to fall in the foreign exchange market. On the contrary, the currency exchange rate of surplus countries will rise. However, it is worth mentioning that the impact of current account changes on the exchange rate is two-way, because it will stimulate the factors that offset the exchange rate changes to respond immediately. Therefore, the relationship between current account and exchange rate changes will be hindered in the short term, so it can only play a role in the long term.
2. Inflation. Under the condition of paper money, the ratio between the currencies of the two countries is basically determined by the comparative relationship between the values they represent. Therefore, in the case of inflation in a country, the value represented by its currency decreases, and its actual purchasing power also decreases, so its foreign exchange rate tends to fall. Of course, the impact of inflation on the exchange rate usually takes some time to show, because inflation often has a real impact on the exchange rate through indirect channels.
3. Differences in economic growth rates among countries. Other things being equal, the real growth rate of a country's economy is higher than that of other countries, so the rapid increase of its national income will make the country's demand for foreign exchange tend to increase relative to the available foreign exchange supply, thus making the country's currency exchange rate tend to fall. Of course, the influence of economic growth rate on exchange rate is more complicated, which is closely related to a country's industrial structure and foreign trade development strategy. Therefore, the long-term change of exchange rate cannot be determined only by the level of economic growth rate.
In fact, the division between short-term risk and long-term risk is only considered from the perspective of enterprise transaction risk management. Short-term and long-term risks are only a relative concept, and there is no absolute boundary. When forecasting exchange rate changes, we should make a decision according to the long-term and short-term needs of our own economic transactions, that is, whether the exchange rate will rise or fall in the corresponding trading cycle. In short, when forecasting the exchange rate trend, we should make a scientific judgment by combining various factors, long-term and short-term, and combining the trading hours, so as to provide a scientific basis for preventing the trading risks of enterprises and determining the correct decisions.
Second, foreign-related enterprises exchange rate risk prevention measures
If the correct prediction of exchange rate risk is the basis of exchange rate transaction risk management, then the prevention and treatment of exchange rate risk is the core of exchange rate transaction risk management. We can divide the exchange rate transaction risk of foreign-related enterprises into three types: exchange rate risk of trade payment, exchange rate risk of foreign exchange borrowing and exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets.
(A) the main methods of preventing exchange rate risk in trade payment
1. Correct selection of pricing currency, collection and payment of foreign exchange and settlement method.
Generally speaking, foreign-related enterprises should try to use currencies with floating exchange rates when exporting goods and services or valuing assets, and try to use currencies with floating exchange rates when valuing imported goods or external liabilities. Under normal circumstances, when the exchange rate of foreign currency settlement in import contracts tends to rise, imported goods should be paid in advance as far as possible. If the denominated currency falls, the importer shall postpone or advance the collection of foreign exchange.
In addition, in import and export trade, we should choose the appropriate settlement method according to the actual situation, that is, we should require timely and safe foreign exchange collection, because timely foreign exchange collection will greatly reduce the time factor risk of exchange rate changes. Generally speaking, sight letter of credit is most in line with the principle of safe and timely receipt of foreign exchange, and the security of forward letter of credit, D/P and D/A is weakened in turn. Of course, in order to promote your own products, you can also choose the appropriate settlement method cautiously and flexibly according to the credit status of the other party.
2. Use hedging transactions.
Hedging transaction is a reliable form of hedging widely used by foreign-related enterprises at home and abroad. It will not cause price confusion, and the risk of international exchange rate changes can be transferred to the international financial market. Financial instruments used for hedging mainly include forward contract trading, futures and options.
(1) Forward contract transactions. Foreign-related enterprises conduct forward contract transactions in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the risk of exchange rate changes during the period from goods trading to payment. When foreign-related enterprises want to pay or receive foreign exchange in the future, and have predicted that the foreign exchange rate will change, they should sign an agreement now, stipulating that they will pay a foreign exchange at the forward exchange rate in the future, and the amount is equal to the payment for goods, so as to ensure the preservation of the company's foreign exchange amount. The term of a general agreement is 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and sometimes it can even reach 1 year. The advantages of this business are: ① you can choose the currency; ② You can hedge the receivable currency by selling forward foreign exchange and buy forward foreign exchange to hedge the payable currency. If a company in new york needs to pay French francs for import, it will entrust a bank to conduct forward foreign exchange transactions in August 1992, with a term of 4 months. At that time, at the exchange rate of 1 USD = 6.45 FF, it cost 58,6341.08 USD to buy 3,846,400ff. By the February delivery of 1989, the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to 1: 6.025. At this time, I spent $638,406.64 to buy 3,846,400 francs. As a result of this forward foreign exchange transaction, the company avoided the exchange rate loss of $42,065. Since 1994 65438+ 10/0, China has started to implement a single managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand, and the uncertainty of exchange rate has increased the urgent need for foreign-related enterprises to avoid exchange rate risks.
(2) Futures trading and options trading. The actual operation and specific practices of financial futures trading are basically the same as forward trading, and it is also a hedging transaction that is delivered at the future maturity according to the currently agreed forward exchange rate. The difference is that forward transactions are mostly based on the actual foreign exchange receipts and payments, while foreign exchange futures usually do not need the actual foreign exchange receipts and payments as the background; Forward trading determines the transaction amount according to the actual foreign exchange receipts and payments of enterprises, while futures trading takes standardized contracts as the subject matter, which can be hedged continuously, and the amount is difficult to fully match the actual demand; Forward foreign exchange trading is actually just an extension of the delivery time of mature foreign exchange trading, which is essentially spot trading, and foreign exchange futures are a derivative trading tool. In addition, foreign-related enterprises can sign option contracts with foreign exchange banks that handle options trading, stipulating that they can enjoy it within a certain period of time? The right to buy or sell foreign currency at the agreed price, but without obligation. When foreign-related enterprises are engaged in export business, they will sell put options if it is expected that the denominated foreign currency will fall. If the exchange rate denominated in foreign currency falls when the contract expires, that is, the market price is lower than the agreed price, the owner of the put right can settle foreign exchange at the agreed price. If the denominated currency rises, he can give up the right to sell the foreign exchange settlement at the market price.
3. Integrated approach
The comprehensive methods of foreign exchange risk prevention mainly include BSI and LSI. These two methods are actually the comprehensive application of the above methods, and it is also because some methods must cooperate with other methods to eliminate all risks. BSI (loan-spot-investment) is a loan-spot contract-investment method. For example, German company B has an account receivable of $50,000 after 90 days. In order to guard against the risk of exchange rate fluctuation of the US dollar against the Deutsche Mark, Company B can borrow the same amount of US dollars (US$ 50,000) from Bank of America or German Bank for a period of 90 days, thus changing the time structure of foreign exchange risk. Company B signed a spot contract with a bank immediately after the loan was received, and sold the loan of $50,000 to mark at the exchange rate of $65,438 +0 = 2. 1 140, and * * * got 105700 mark. Subsequently, Company B invested 105700 mark in the German money market (without considering the interest factor for the time being), and the investment period was also 90 days. After 90 days, Company B will return the $50,000 receivable to Bank of America, which can eliminate the foreign exchange risk of this receivable. If German company B has a sum of $50,000 payable after 90 days, in order to eliminate its foreign exchange risk, it should first borrow the local currency, that is, the German mark, and the currency in the following steps is the opposite.
LSI(Lead-Spot-Invest) means advance payment-spot contract-investment method. For example, German company B has a loan receivable of $50,000 from an American company after 90 days. In order to prevent exchange rate fluctuation, Company B obtained the consent of American company and asked it to pay off the loan within 2 days under the condition of giving it a certain discount (regardless of the specific discount amount for the time being). After obtaining a loan of $50,000, Company B immediately converted it into local currency marks through spot contracts and invested in the German money market. Due to the advance payment, the time risk is eliminated, and the currency risk is eliminated due to the exchange of local currency.
(B) the exchange rate risk of capital lending and its prevention
The exchange rate risk of capital lending refers to the loss caused by the increase of actual principal interest or the decrease of income due to the change of the exchange rate of lending currency from the determination of lending relationship to the repayment of principal and interest. The exchange rate risk of capital lending may increase the debtor's expenditure and benefit the creditor; or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium For example, when the US dollar and the Japanese yen tend to appreciate, China's debt service burden is increasing. In order to prevent the exchange rate risk of capital lending, in addition to the exchange rate prevention measures in trade payment, there are the following measures:
1. Bonds are issued in dual currency.
The dual currency is denominated in one currency, and the principal is repaid in another currency at a predetermined exchange rate when the bond matures. For example, a bank in China issued 20 billion yen dual-currency bonds in April of a certain year with a term of 10 year. At the time of issuance, the Japanese yen was 179: 1. However, the issuance documents stipulate that when the bonds expire after 10 years, the principal of the bonds will be repaid at the exchange rate of 169: 1. If the yen reaches about 80: 1 against the US dollar at maturity, banks can not only avoid the risk of yen appreciation against RMB, but also benefit from it.
2. The risk of exchange rate changes in the borrowing currency and the interest rate of the currency should be comprehensively considered.
Generally speaking, from the perspective of exchange rate, borrowing soft currency is beneficial to borrowers, but the loan interest rate of soft currency is higher and the interest rate of hard currency is lower. Therefore, for foreign-related enterprises that borrow foreign exchange, it is really cost-effective to borrow money only when the gains from exchange rate are greater than the losses from interest rate. When predicting the depreciation rate of foreign exchange during the loan period, which currency should be borrowed, the following formula can be considered:
1+B0+annual interest rate of national currency B.
If a > country's currency depreciation rate; 1 -
1+A national currency annual interest rate
At this point, it is beneficial to borrow the currency of country A; On the other hand, it is advantageous to borrow the currency of country B.
(3) Exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets and its prevention.
The exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets of foreign-related enterprises refers to the loss caused by the decrease of the actual value of foreign exchange assets due to exchange rate changes. If an enterprise has $200,000 in assets for importing equipment from Germany, the exchange rate of USD/DM is $65,438 +0 = 2.50 DM, and the enterprise's USD assets can be used for importing equipment of DM 500,000. A few months later, if the US dollar depreciates to 65,438 US dollars +0 = 2.00 marks, the foreign exchange assets of the enterprise of 200,000 US dollars can only pay for 400,000 marks of equipment, and the actual depreciation of the foreign exchange assets of the enterprise is 654.38 million marks.
The most commonly used methods to prevent the exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets of enterprises are basket currency method and forward foreign exchange transaction hedging method. At present, the foreign exchange assets of foreign-related enterprises in China are still dominated by US dollars, and the proportion of Japanese yen, mark, euro and Swiss franc is very small, so the exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets of foreign-related enterprises is great. Therefore, it is suggested that foreign-related enterprises in China adjust the currency structure of foreign exchange assets, appropriately increase the proportion of yen, mark, euro and other currencies, and reduce the proportion of US dollars.