Date of Land and Resources: 2005 165438+ 10 14 Source: China Nonferrous Metals Mineral Resources Information Network.
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Abstract: Since 2003, the price of zinc at home and abroad has risen sharply, reaching a new high in seven years. However, due to the inability of zinc mine to keep up with the change of smelting capacity, the supply of zinc concentrate is in short supply, and it is expected to be balanced in 2007. Due to the shortage of supply, the processing fee of zinc concentrate has been decreasing. At present, the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate in China has reached at least 20 USD/ton, and it is expected to drop to more than 10 USD just around the corner.
I. International market situation
1. The lead-zinc industry in the west is developing slowly and the smelting industry is in turmoil. In recent years, the change of zinc production capacity in western countries is similar to that in China, that is, the mine production capacity can not keep up with the change of smelting capacity. Because of the turmoil in the global zinc smelting industry, the processing fee of zinc concentrate is decreasing year by year, which makes some high-cost production capacity withdraw, and the smelting capacity in the later and waiting areas is increasing, both at home and abroad.
According to the data of the international lead-zinc mine research group and related materials, since 2004, the capacity of zinc mines in western countries may be increased by about 4 1 10,000 tons, including 220,000 tons newly built, 240,000 tons expanded, 220,000 tons closed and 200,000 tons restored. In 2005, 330,000 tons were added, and 80,000 tons have been closed, with a possible net increase of 250,000 tons.
The main new mine belongs to Hindustan Zinc Company. The three mines added a total of 340,000 tons of zinc ore1340,000 tons through production expansion, which was put into operation at the beginning of the second quarter of this year, but at the same time, an electrolytic zinc plant was put into operation in July, with a capacity of1700,000 tons. The shutdown of production capacity in Canada is due to the exhaustion of resources. Among the new mine production capacity, there are not many large mines, most of which are the expansion of existing small and medium-sized mines. The production capacity of these new mines may not reach the output as scheduled soon. The scale of closed mines is relatively large, which has obvious influence on the market. The smelting capacity in Europe and America continued to shrink, and Asia began to develop.
There are many uncertain factors in production.
According to the data released by the international lead-zinc research group, the global consumption of refined zinc increased to 7.098 million tons from June to August 2005, compared with 6.979 million tons in the same period last year. The output of refined zinc increased to 6.874 million tons, compared with 6.705 million tons in the same period last year. In addition, the manufacturer's inventory increased to 306,000 tons in August, 297,800 tons in July and 262,000 tons at the end of 2004.
It is estimated that the global zinc concentrate output in 2005 is 4.005 million tons, an increase of 72,000 tons over the same period of last year, with an increase of only 65,438 0.8%. Compared with 2004, the benchmark processing fee in 2005 decreased by 65,438+06 USD/ton, reaching 65,438+026 USD/ton. The spot processing fee in Asia has reached a minimum of $20/ton, and the spot processing fee in Europe has also dropped to a historical low of $70/ton.
The demand for zinc is increasing.
According to the statistics of the international lead and zinc research group, the global zinc consumption increased by 56,000 tons from June to May this year compared with the same period of last year, while the western countries decreased by 4 1 10,000 tons year-on-year. The global consumption growth mainly depends on Asia, China and India, while the consumption of zinc in the west is quite weak, which is related to the galvanized sheet market in the west. For example, in the first half of the year, the output of galvanized sheet in North America decreased by 4.7% (560,000 tons) compared with the same period of last year, reaching 1 1.42 million tons; Consumption decreased by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.5438+0.296 million tons. Europe's output in the first half of the year decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to14.6 million tons; In the same period, European consumption decreased by 654.38+0.5% year-on-year to 654.38+053.5 million tons. The output of galvanized sheet in Asian countries excluding China increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 654.38+044 million tons; During the same period, the consumption increased by 9. 1% to10.08 million tons.
4. The premium level of zinc is rising steadily.
Since the beginning of this year, the zinc ingot premium in European and Asian markets has maintained a steady and rising pattern. The European market has the strongest premium, above 95 USD/ton, mainly due to the closure of smelters in this region. In Asia, the premium is maintained at USD 65,438+000/ton due to the decrease of China's exports and the increase of demand. The high premium shows that supply and demand in most parts of the world are still relatively tight. On June 5438+ 10, the spot premium of zinc in the Japanese market was USD 130- 140/ ton (subject to the spot price of LME).
Some traders said: China suppliers and traders are not active in zinc export, because the domestic price is 200 USD/ton higher than the LME spot price. At present, the premium of zinc imported from China is above 100 USD/ton, and some of it has exceeded 150 USD/ton. Judging from the import quantity of zinc, it has become an upward trend. Due to the relationship between supply and demand, the profit margin that has been formed, and the potential rising factors of domestic zinc price, it is estimated that the number of imported zinc ingots will exceed 70,000 tons in the third quarter, and the future premium level will not be less than 65,438+030 USD.
5, inventory reduction
Since 5438+00 in June last year, LME reported a continuous decline in stocks, which provided strong support for zinc prices. From June to July 2005, the average spot price of LME was 65,438+0,280 USD/ton, up 23% over the same period last year. In the same period, the average price of three futures varieties of zinc was $65,438+0,293/ton, up 22.4% year-on-year. This year, the spot LME topped $65,438 +0.500/ ton, and the three-month price topped $65,438 +0.503/ ton. In the first five months, LME reported that the inventory decreased at a rate of about 20,000 tons per month, and by the end of May, it decreased by 6,543.8+004,600 tons. At present, the inventory is around 506,900 tons.
Second, the domestic market situation
1, the domestic price reached a record high.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market price has been relatively firm. In the fourth quarter of 2004, the domestic price of 1 # zinc ingots once fell below 1 1000 yuan/ton, but it has been higher than 12000 yuan/ton this year, mostly at 12500- 13000 yuan.
2. Strong demand growth.
Increased demand, cost pull and tight supply are still the main factors leading to strong domestic prices this year. In 2005, the zinc plating industry was still the main area of zinc demand growth, mainly reflected in the following aspects: the demand for hot-dip galvanized sheet and color-coated sheet in household appliances, construction industry, automobile and other industries was the same as last year; In 2005, the installed capacity will increase by 70 million kilowatts, and the demand for galvanized steel in the power industry is undoubtedly very strong; The demand in the transportation industry has greatly increased. By 2020, China will form a national highway network of 85,000 kilometers. Macro-control has little effect on the overall demand for zinc. Although the iron and steel industry is affected by the macro-control price drop and the slow growth of output, the output of galvanized sheet has increased rapidly. It is estimated that the annual output of galvanized sheet is close to100000 tons, about 3 million tons more than that in 2004, and the consumption of zinc is close to150000 tons. With the development of automobile and construction industry, the domestic production of coatings and rubber has increased rapidly year by year, and the demand for zinc oxide has maintained steady growth. Copper and copper alloys are currently the second largest zinc user industry in China. In the first half of this year, China's copper output increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reaching 2.6 million tons. In all fields of zinc consumption, only the growth of battery consumption slowed down, mainly because of the adjustment of battery structure, and the growth of zinc consumption in other fields remained good. It is estimated that zinc consumption in China increased by 7.8% in 2005 compared with 2004.
3. Spot concentrate price accounts for about 70% of zinc ingot price.
Domestic zinc ingot prices rose, which improved mining investment to some extent. In the first half of the year, China lead-zinc mine started to invest in 105 projects, an increase of 48 projects over the same period last year. From June to July this year, the national zinc concentrate output increased by 3.27% year-on-year to 96 1.8 million tons. But it still can't keep up with the growth of smelting capacity, and the price of concentrate has been soaring. Even if the price of zinc ingot falls, the price of concentrate still rises. At present, the 50% grade zinc ore in the domestic market has exceeded 9500 yuan/ton, and it is estimated that it will be 10000 yuan/ton in winter. According to this estimation, its cost accounts for about 70% of zinc price.
4. The output of metallic zinc increased moderately, and the net import increased.
According to statistics, domestic zinc production increased by 4.73% from June to July this year, reaching 654.38+0.5037 million tons. In the second half of this year, more new production capacity was invested, and it was raw materials rather than production capacity that decided the output. It is estimated that the zinc output in China will reach about 2.68 million tons in 2005, which is about 654.38+600 million tons more than that in 2004, which means the average monthly output in the second half of this year.
In the first half of the year, the net import of zinc concentrate in China was 293,228 tons, down 2.7% year-on-year. The net import of zinc alloy is 9 1902 tons, up 4% year-on-year; The net import of zinc was 265,438+0,790 tons, down 35% compared with the same period of last year; The net import of scrap zinc was 32,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. The net import of zinc ingots is more than 50,000 tons, nearly 40,000 tons more than last year.
Third, the future market forecast
The supply of zinc ore has been in short supply for three years. It is estimated that the mine production capacity will not increase significantly until the end of 2006. In 2007, the supply and demand of global concentrate market will be basically balanced. Until then, the processing fee will continue to fall, which will limit the production of smelters. It is predicted that before 2007, the supply in the western market will continue to be in short supply.
In short, the fundamentals of the global zinc market are still improving, and tight and stable supply will be the main feature this year and next. However, the overall macro situation is not conducive to its rapid rise. It is estimated that the rest of this year will fluctuate between $65,438+0,250-65,438+0,550/ton, with more opportunities to rise than to fall. Domestic zinc price is expected to remain firm.
It is estimated that the annual average spot price of LME will be USD 65,438+0,300/ton in 2005, USD 65,438+0,320/ton in the third quarter and USD 65,438+0,365,438+0.8/ton in the fourth quarter. (Excerpted from China Nonferrous Metals Newspaper)
Respondent: Coral Ji-Scholar Grade 2-4 00:5 1
Moderator: Luo Xiaofang Guest: Hou Baoquan, chief consultant of Pan Fuxiang New Power Studio, owns shares in zinc industry.
Chairman of a limited liability company
Moderator: Recently, investors wrote to inquire about the shares of 075 1 Zinc Industry and the year-end performance of Zinc Power last year.
Industry stocks reached 0.475 yuan, and fell to 0. 16 1 yuan in the middle of this year. Why is this happening?
What about this landslide? I hope that New Power Studio will analyze the shares of zinc industry in order to understand this point in more detail.
Company, "Securities Night" reporter went to Huludao, western Liaoning.
Walking into Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., the reporter's biggest feeling is the scale of the enterprise. Although the staff dormitory is
On both sides of the road outside the factory gate, many employees still need 10 minutes to get to their workshop by motorcycle.
Time. At present, the company mainly produces and sells zinc, copper and deep-processed products, and is one of the largest zinc smelting enterprises in Asia.
The annual production capacity of 1. is 330,000 tons, in which zinc ingots are produced by traditional zinc distillation system.
The content reaches 99.99%, which is a national export inspection-free product. In the past three years, the company has exported zinc ingots 1 every year.
0000 tons, foreign exchange income exceeds 1 billion dollars, which is such a large state-controlled enterprise, this year.
Earnings per share decreased by more than 30% during this period.
Hou Baoquan, Chairman of Zinc Industry Co., Ltd.: The main reason for the decline in the company's efficiency in the first half of the year was due to
Due to the influence of changes in international and domestic markets, Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. is an early enterprise in line with international standards, and the price of zinc ingots
It all depends on the London Metal Exchange.
Moderator: We learned in the interview that although the company's total output of non-ferrous metals in the first half of the year set a record.
The best level in the same period, but the income is not satisfactory. Just now we also heard the explanation from the chairman of the company.
In view of the current decline in corporate performance, I would like to ask what the new power studio sitting next to me thinks.
In front of you is Mr. Pan Fuxiang, the chief consultant of New Power Studio. How to evaluate this situation?
Pan Fuxiang: It should be said that judging from this year's interim report, the current form of zinc industry shares should be relatively strict.
That's great. We can clearly see its mid-term performance in history from the chart below.
It was 0.405 yuan in the middle of last year, and it dropped to 0. 16 1 yuan in the middle of this year, a decrease of 60%.
. If we consider that in the middle of last year, it had a tax preference of1070 million, but in the middle of today, it has.
60 million tax concessions, excluding these two tax concessions, should be 24 cents in the middle of last year.
Today, it is 9.3% in the middle, and the same decline is almost 60%. So we should start here.
From one point of view, it is a zinc industry stock, which has encountered great difficulties in its operation this year. We are careful.
Analysis, it encountered this difficulty, the chairman just put forward a, is really affected by the international,
The impact of the domestic market, I have such a picture at hand, which is the trend chart of the whole international zinc price in the past two years.
When we actually look closely, we can find that the price of zinc appears at 200 1.
It used to be 1 100 dollars a ton for a long time. Now let's say.
At the lowest time, it dropped to 860, so we say that this sharp decline is reflected in the zinc industry itself.
The export of zinc products reflects the sharp drop in its price, while our other chart can
To illustrate this point, the zinc industry has two kinds of stocks. There are two main types of zinc products. One is distillation by other distillation methods.
The price of zinc ingots produced by the zinc system has basically dropped by almost 7% compared with the same period of last year, and then there is another one.
The price of electrolytic zinc for external use has also dropped by 7%, so that we can
It is found that the price of the whole product has dropped obviously, which has a very important impact on its performance. another
On the one hand, the price of raw materials has risen. Judging from the data we can find now,
When the price of zinc was relatively high last year, many enterprises began to expand their zinc smelting capacity.
China's new production capacity of 6.5438+0.25 million tons is almost well documented, although we are talking about the zinc industry.
Joint-stock company is the oldest zinc smelting enterprise in China, and its strength is very strong, but due to some small smelting enterprises.
Its raw material prices have risen sharply one after another, which means that someone is competing with it.
Grab raw materials, so that the price of this zinc concentrate has also risen sharply, with the highest time difference.
The moderate increase of 10%, coupled with the fluctuation of the whole oil price last year, also brought about an increase in coal prices.
Some influences lead to the decline of product prices and the increase of costs, which are combined to form.
In the first half of 200 1 year, the performance of zinc industry shares declined in a large proportion.
Moderator: Indeed, the decline in zinc prices in the international market and the rise in raw material prices seem to have indeed given zinc.
The production and operation of zinc industry shares have brought great pressure. In the face of changes in the international market, how can the share of zinc industry span?
What about those who have weathered the storm? Let's see what the chairman said.
Hou Baoquan: The main reason is that we reduce the processing cost internally, reduce our processing expenses, and make
It can reduce the cost space of smelting and processing industry and ensure a certain profit.
Ping.
Moderator: the chairman is also thinking about how to tide over the difficulties. To what extent do you think he can tap the potential and increase efficiency internally?
Improve profitability on a large scale?
Pan Fuxiang: From March to June this year, it was revealed by the China Daily that the potential was tapped internally, which almost increased by 2%.
8 million profits. In addition, you may continue to enjoy some preferential policies, such as 50 per day.
Ten thousand degrees of parity power supply, the state continues to give it some tax incentives, like these factors.
It is useful for 200 1 zinc industry to resume its performance on the original basis, but
But it is not a fundamental role, because we see the shares of the whole zinc industry, in fact, it is now facing the most
The big problem is that it is now in a relatively rough link in the whole zinc industry chain, that is to say,
It is said that its main raw material, zinc concentrate, is not in its hands, so how can it be produced by itself?
Expanding the industrial chain can form a joint enterprise from mining, selection to smelting and processing, which is effective for it.
It is probably the most important to resist the risks brought about by changes in the external market.
Moderator: It seems that this is far from enough development. Enterprises can tap their potential only from the inside, and zinc industry shares are also being developed.
Measures are being taken to establish close ties with mining enterprises.
In 2000, the company joined hands with Gansu Jianxin Industrial Co., Ltd. in the form of compensation trade and established a joint venture in Inner Mongolia.
Gansu establishes a raw material base of 654.38+10,000 tons of metallic zinc every year. At the end of 2006.5438+0, it was reported that the company decided to use.
From 200 1 to 2008, shares were issued to raise funds to purchase the supply right of zinc concentrate of Gansu Jianxin industrial co., ltd. ..
Hou Baoquan: This time, we are jointly developing Dongsheng Temple and Jiashengtan Mine in Inner Mongolia with Jianxin Company.
Area, so that our zinc company has a stable raw material base, which is also one of our company's sustainable development.
Specific measures.
Hou Baoquan: At present, the company is cooperating with Shenzhen Zunye Nano Technology Co., Ltd. to develop nano-oxidation.
The value of high value-added products such as materials, tin, silver and zinc. It should be said that this project is of great significance to the long-term development of the company.
The advantage is that I mainly want to make nano-silver oxide and zinc powder now, and I will continue to develop it in the next step.
Dachai, let him further develop its downstream products, really improve the high added value of products, through products
Structural adjustment, we want to make our sales have high zinc and high value-added products at the end of the tenth five-year plan.
Over 20% in China.
Moderator: It seems that the leader of this zinc industry has also noticed this problem, and he is not just adjusting.
To improve his position in the industrial chain, he should enrich his products and develop several other products.
There are also some actions in this regard. Do you think this will actually help his company make a profit in the future?
Pan Fuxiang: It should be of great help, because we know that zinc industry shares produce zinc.
60% of this company comes from its zinc mine, and now it has taken some measures to establish contact with some mining enterprises.
Fit, then this time for it to control the cost of raw materials is effective, it should be said that it is relatively large.
The role of. The other, we also found through this year's final report, is in the deep processing of some zinc products, and the other
It should be right to invest in some high technologies, such as nano-oxides.
Its long-term transformation will be beneficial, but we should also be soberly aware that efforts in this regard are also.
It can't be done overnight, and the improvement of performance may be long-term.
Moderator: Just now I know that you showed us a picture, that is, from 1998 to the end of 2000.
The trend chart of international zinc price, then I want to ask, is it possible to have such a big reaction after such a drop?
Bombs, like 1997, the price of zinc soared. Will this happen? If so.
Isn't the profit of zinc industry greatly improved?
Pan Fuxiang: 1997 The main reason for the sharp rise of zinc price was influenced by the international speculative market.
If under the influence of speculation in the futures market, there is an explosive decline in stocks now, we say it is also an increase of 1997.
This adjustment, from the analysis of the whole general industry, thinks that the zinc price may remain unchanged this year.
Running at a low level, of course, has now fallen to $860 a ton, which is basically in the zinc industry.
We believe that a number of similar small-scale new enterprises will issue shares at full cost.
Industry, may not be able to withstand the blow of competition, may be eliminated, and then eliminated, for
After the price reduction, the price may pick up. But we think, on the whole, it is the heaviest for zinc industry.
An important challenge comes from the fact that we can't completely tie the fate of an enterprise to an international market.
Regarding the fluctuation of our product price, if so, it should be said that its ability to resist risks is too weak.
Moderator: It was true that the price of 1997 soared, which seemed very beneficial to the company in the short term, but
At the same time, it also allows many enterprises to enter this industry, and the profits are very high, so it is invisible to him.
Many competitors have been added, and the price of raw materials has also risen, but if it falls this time, it can be
Being able to do it for him is not only a bad thing, but also can drive out other competitors who are not competitive enough.
Pan Fuxiang: Clean up the portal.
Moderator: We have noticed that apart from the risk of international zinc price fluctuation, zinc industry stocks have also taken a close look.
In the annual report of 1998 to 2000, we also found that he had another risk, which we found in the annual report.
There is a problem that affiliated companies occupy a lot of funds of listed companies. This year, Qimu Company and Huludao new factory accounted for.
The funds have been returned, but other affiliated companies still show signs of occupying the funds of listed companies.
How did the management explain it?
Hou Baoquan: The export of zinc ingots in Huludao zinc industry is represented by Huludao Zinc Factory. Because zinc
There was a cautious period after the ingot was exported, which caused the import and export companies to occupy the funds of zinc industry.
It should be said that the company also attaches great importance to it. Next, we should actively cooperate with import and export companies to strengthen zinc.
The cautious period of ingot export, speeding up the withdrawal of funds and reducing the amount of funds occupied, I can say here, in and out.
Our company's crude zinc ingots occupy funds due to the extension of settlement period, and there is no financial risk.
Moderator: Just now, we saw that Chairman Hou said that there was no financial risk, New Power Studio.
What do you think of this problem? Is there any capital risk in related party transactions?
Pan Fuxiang: It is really difficult for us to communicate with the chairman because of the new power studio.
After analyzing the annual report of zinc industry, the researchers found that after 1997 went public, it
Every year, a large number of affiliated companies occupy the funds of listed companies, and the amount is still there.
Gradually increase. According to the announcement in the last newspaper this year, the occupation amount is almost 600 million, and it will be closed after the end of 600 million.
The monthly interest occupied by the joint company's funds, the interest paid to the zinc industry shares is almost 270.
00,000, if calculated according to the capital cost of 6% in three to five years, almost all the funds are occupied.
It should not exceed 900 million yuan, which is almost 1/3 of the net assets of zinc industry, so it can be said that,
We say that such a large amount of funds is often controlled by a parent company and several affiliated companies.
Long-term occupation, we say, is an investment risk that cannot be ignored by listed companies.
Some similar field experiences and lessons are worth remembering.
Moderator: I think this may be a very important reason why China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shenyang Urban Management Office let it rectify within a time limit.
The important reason is that such related party transactions exist in large numbers.
Pan Fuxiang: That's right. Of course, after careful study, we found that it also has some special circumstances.
Because this zinc industry shares from the past Huludao zinc factory took out a part of the packaging listed, so it since.
It is difficult to form a normal production and operation cycle, so many of its cooperation links are still in its matrix.
The controlling shareholder of the company, so in this case, he has certain related transactions with the parent company.
Inevitably, as we said just now, from the perspective of comprehensively measuring the investment risk of a listed company, we
I think with the development of enterprises in the future, the amount of such related party transactions should be reduced as much as possible.
.
In addition, listed companies can acquire some related operating assets of the parent company in a certain period of time.
The solution to this problem, so generally speaking, is intentional for the healthy development of listed companies.
Moderator: Based on the above discussion, how does New Power Studio evaluate the future development of zinc industry?
What about the price?
Pan Fuxiang: Our new power studio believes that as the third zinc smelting enterprise in the world and the first in Asia,
Zinc industry shares should play a decisive role in the industry, but from the current situation, it has been greatly
Although it is big enough, it is not strong enough. In the future, we should tell ourselves that in the whole future development process, we should
Only by developing in the direction of mining, dressing, smelting and processing joint enterprises can we fully resist international zinc.
The risk brought by market price fluctuation makes the development of enterprises healthier.
Compere: Only in this way can it really bargain when selling and buying goods. okay
Thank you, Mr. Pan, for coming to the program "Securities Night" to give you more authoritative information analysis and more real investment.
Information.