This week, the demand for soybean meal has improved, and the turnover has increased slightly. However, most feed enterprises still adopt the purchase strategy of instant use, and the support of demand for meal price is weak. In addition, the impact of the bird flu epidemic on aquaculture continues. It is understood that since March, the sales volume of poultry feed in some parts of China has decreased by about 30% compared with the same period in February, and most of them are 50%; Accordingly, the domestic pig feed sales in March decreased by 20%-30% compared with February. With the change of seasons, the outbreak and further spread of the epidemic are less likely. The country announced the complete eradication of the epidemic on June 18, and now all localities have increased their policy support. According to industry insiders, after mid-April, the domestic livestock and poultry breeding industry will show signs of slow recovery.
Oil World said on Tuesday that despite the global spread of bird flu, the global demand for soybean meal is still strong. At present, it is difficult to find data to prove that bird flu has had a negative impact. The world's four major exporters-the United States, Argentina, Brazil and India-exported 7.7 million tons of soybean meal in June 2006, an increase of 654.38+200,000 tons over the same period last year. The main export targets of soybean meal are Mexico, China, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and several other countries. Part of the impact of the spread of avian influenza and the reduction of feed consumption demand will be reflected by the reduction of soybean meal imports in some important countries in March and April. "
At present, the continuous arrival of low-priced imported soybeans and imported Indian soybean meal has a great impact on the domestic soybean meal price. After April, the pre-sale price of imported soybean meal from southern China was 2 180 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in some cases was only 2 160 yuan/ton, which undoubtedly brought obvious negative pressure to the domestic soybean meal market, especially the southern coastal market.
On Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture released the export sales report as of March 16, which showed that the annual net sales of soybean meal in the US market in 2005/06 was115,200 tons, up 23% from last week and 36% from the four-week average. The export volume 10.09 million tons, 8% lower than last week and 25% lower than the average level around. According to the data of US Census Bureau, at the end of February, 2006, the US soybean meal inventory was 3,065,438+0,552 short tons, which was higher than the industry average estimated value of 2,865,438+0,300 short tons. In contrast, the inventory of soybean meal at the end of 2006 1 was 326,629 short tons, while the inventory at the end of February 2005 was 3 10400 short tons. This week, the domestic fish meal price was firm, and the price of fish meal in various ports was 7 100-7300 yuan/ton. As aquaculture in southern ports is about to start, traders are optimistic about the market prospects.
At present, the domestic soybean meal price has fallen to a lower price, which is close to 2200 yuan/ton, which is the bottom price in recent years. It is expected that there will be little room for the spot price of domestic soybean meal to fall next week, and it is not excluded that the price of soybean meal will hit a low level.
References:
Summary of soybean meal market in one week
slly.com/