1. Soybean supply: As a downstream product of soybean processing, the supply of soybean directly determines the supply of soybean oil. In general, the increase of soybean supply will inevitably lead to the increase of soybean oil supply. There are two main sources of soybean, one is domestic soybean and the other is imported soybean.
(1) Domestic soybean supply. Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the main soybean producing areas, and the harvest season is usually from September to 65438+ 10 every year, and the months after harvest are the concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years, China's soybean output has been maintained at about160,000 tons, of which nearly half is used for crushing.
(2) international market supply. China is currently the largest soybean importer in the world. In recent years, China has imported more than 20 million tons of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina every year.
2. Soybean oil output: The current soybean oil output is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, soybean crushing income and production cost. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious inverse relationship between the output and price of soybean oil. Soybean oil production increased and the price was relatively low. Soybean oil production decreased and the price was relatively high.
3. Import and export volume of soybean oil: With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of soybean oil has increased year by year, and the import volume has also increased year by year. Changes in soybean oil imports have a growing impact on domestic soybean oil prices. After 2006, with the cancellation of soybean oil import quota, domestic and foreign soybean oil markets will be integrated. In this way, the influence of soybean oil import quantity on domestic soybean oil price will be further enhanced.
4. Soybean oil inventory: Soybean oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tension of supply. In most cases, insufficient inventory leads to price increase, while sufficient inventory leads to price decrease. Because soybean oil is not easy to be preserved for a long time, once the stock of soybean oil increases, the price of soybean oil tends to go down.
(2) Consumption of soybean oil
1. Domestic demand: China is a big consumer of soybean oil. In recent years, domestic soybean oil consumption has increased rapidly, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.
2. Prosperity of catering industry: At present, the output and consumption of vegetable oil in China are among the highest in the world. In recent years, with the improvement of living standards of urban residents, more and more people eat out, and the prosperity of catering industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean oil.
(3) the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities
1. Soybean price: The price of soybean directly affects the production cost of soybean oil. In recent years, many large domestic crushing enterprises have chosen imported soybeans as processing raw materials, which makes the crushing capacity of imported soybeans far exceed that of domestic soybeans. Therefore, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans. The benefit of soybean crushing is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean oil. If the squeezing efficiency of soybean processing plants is kept down, some factories will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean oil.
2. Price relationship between soybean oil and soybean meal: Soybean oil is a downstream product of soybean, and about 0. 18 ton of soybean oil and 0.8 ton of soybean meal can be squeezed out per ton of soybean. The prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related. According to years of experience, in most cases, the price of soybean meal is high, and the price of soybean oil will fall; When soybean meal is unsalable, the operating rate of soybean processing plants will decrease, the output of soybean oil will decrease, and the price of soybean oil will often rise.
3. The price of soybean oil substitutes: In addition to the high correlation between soybean oil price and soybean meal price, soybean oil substitutes such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut oil and cottonseed oil also have a certain impact on soybean oil price. If the price of soybean oil is too high, refineries or oil-using enterprises often replace it with other vegetable oils, resulting in a decrease in the demand for soybean oil and a decrease in the price of soybean oil.
Impact of agricultural, trade and food policies
1. Agricultural policy: National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of planting varieties. For example, in recent years, the state has guided farmers to increase soybean planting area by adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing domestic soybean production. After May 2004 1, China implemented a new vegetable oil standard, which improved the product quality and hygiene and safety requirements of vegetable oil, and increased the inspection of peroxide value and solvent residue index. These policies have a certain impact on the price of soybean oil.
2. Import and export trade policy: Over the years, the change of national import and export trade policy has a great influence on the total import and export of soybean oil in China. For example, 1994, People's Republic of China (PRC) State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China adjusted the tariff rate of imported soybean oil, and the tariff rate was reduced from 20% to 13%. At the same time, the tariff rates of vegetable oils such as peanut oil and palm oil have also been reduced to varying degrees, resulting in a large increase in the import of vegetable oils such as soybean oil and a rapid increase in the supply of soybean oil.
3. Food policy: In recent years, with the successive occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease, considering the impact of genetically modified foods on human health, more and more countries have implemented new food policies. These new grain policies have affected the consumption demand of soybean oil through their influence on food and catering industry.