The earthquake in Japan lost one-third of the copper smelting capacity. The spot processing fee of copper in China smelter increased from $70 per ton to $0/40 per ton, and the long-term processing fee increased by nearly 80%. It seems that enterprises in China have ushered in a "good period" of increasing processing fees.
However, compared with the rising international copper price, domestic smelting enterprises have not got rid of the fate of meager profit operation and relying entirely on international miners. The benefits of this short-term rise may cause copper to fall into a "productivity trap" similar to iron ore. Once iron ore is completely handed over to people, non-ferrous metals represented by copper are bound to become another heavy pressure on domestic inflation.
Short-term high-priced subsidies for corporate profits
The industry expects that the increase in processing fees indicates the further upward trend of international copper prices in the future, because the miners' increase in processing fees is more optimistic about the present and future markets.
The reporter learned from several large domestic smelting enterprises that the spot processing fee for copper refining has increased from $ 70-80 per ton before the earthquake in Japan to $0/40-150 per ton. According to industry insiders, about one-third of Japan's smelting capacity stopped production this time, which was affected by nuclear radiation. The actual smelting capacity in Japan has been damaged more seriously than expected, and the possibility of further increase in spot processing fees is not ruled out.
At the middle or end of each year, domestic smelters will negotiate with international ore traders on the processing fee standard for the next six months or one year. This part is a long-term contract. Moreover, all smelters have reserved some processing business of spot copper concentrate, which is the spot processing fee this time.
According to Li Yusheng's judgment, long-term contracts and short-term contracts are almost equally divided in domestic copper smelting this year. Therefore, the increase of spot processing fees will inevitably affect the annual income of enterprises. However, because major copper enterprises keep their long-term and short-term contract ratios confidential, the income of each enterprise is different.
In the first half of 20 1 1, the copper refining and processing fee was $72 per ton, which was nearly 80% higher than that in 20 10. This fully shows that international miners are optimistic about the world copper consumption market in 201/and China's consumption accounts for 40% of the world.
According to the current international copper trading rules, the price of copper concentrate is obtained by subtracting the agreed copper processing fee from the international copper price on the delivery date. Because the processing fee is quantitative, generally speaking, the processing fee of smelters will increase only if miners look at the international copper price in the next six months or a year. However, due to the short term of spot processing fee, which generally does not exceed 1 month, the impact on the whole market is limited.
At present, copper smelting enterprises including Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper have signed long-term agreements with major copper suppliers such as BHP Billiton for half a year, so this part of the business is not affected by spot price fluctuations.
However, international miners never trade at a loss. The industry expects that the increase in processing fees indicates the further upward trend of international copper prices in the future, because the miners' increase in processing fees is more optimistic about the present and future markets.
Nonferrous metal or pressure expansion
Industry analysts predict that there will be an upward trend in mid-April, which will continue to push up the prices of related products.
After hitting the mark of $0/0000 per ton/kloc at the end of last year, the international copper price continued to be weak. At present, the spot price of copper in Shanghai Futures Exchange is about 70,000 yuan per ton. The market expects that this round of adjustment will last for a long time.
As China is the largest copper consumer in the world, the market changes in China directly affect the economic expectations of global miners. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of non-ferrous metals in China has been negative in February and March, which runs counter to the rise of the price index.
However, the research institute's expectation that copper consumption in China will increase by 8% in 20 1 1 year has not changed. At the beginning of February 2065438+00, Macquarie Bank predicted in a report that the total consumption of refined copper in China would increase by 440,000 tons in 201kloc-0/year.
Although the international copper price is weak, the insiders believe that international miners can accept the demand of copper spot processing fee increase 1 times, which shows their confidence in the China market. Nonferrous metals are the basic industries of the national economy, and this series of price increases will inevitably affect the price fluctuations of many downstream products.
The reporter learned in the building materials and household appliances industries that use a lot of copper that the price of some high-end refrigerators rose from 200 yuan to 400 yuan due to the sharp rise of the copper price of 20 10. Correspondingly, in the building materials industry, the prices of products that use a lot of copper, such as faucets, have also increased by more than 20%.
While the short-term rise of copper prices is weak, lead and zinc products that have been "unknown" are also facing price changes. For some time, due to the frequent occurrence of "blood lead incidents" and "heavy metal poisoning" in various places, China's lead and zinc industry has been comprehensively rectified, and some mines and production enterprises have stopped production or reduced production, especially some lead industrial clusters in Anhui Province.
At present, the downstream processing industry is digesting inventory, and industry analysts expect that there will be an upward trend in mid-April, which will continue to push up the prices of related products.
"Although the price of aluminum dropped slightly after the earthquake in Japan, the trend of continuous improvement will not change. Thanks to the construction of affordable housing and infrastructure development, the price of aluminum will continue to improve. " Su, an analyst at Shanghai Securities, said that aluminum has been in a downturn in recent years, and it has risen at the node of national war inflation, which is not necessarily good news for curbing prices.
Capacity expansion "trap"
It is said that it is going to cut production and raise prices, but it is actually secretly expanding production capacity. Once the consumption of copper in China reaches the level of iron, copper may become another iron ore.
Although the demand for non-ferrous metals has not increased as expected under the background of adjusting the economic development mode and reducing the economic growth expectation, and the prices of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc are at a seesaw state at present, the long-term bullish trend of non-ferrous metals remains unchanged.
"Although the current price is already high, the consumption of copper in the world, especially in China, is definitely increasing, and resources are in the hands of a few miners." An industry insider who participated in the negotiation of copper processing fees told reporters that the biggest worry is that the increase of processing fees will not only increase the profits of enterprises, but also stimulate enterprises to continue to expand production capacity. At present, only 70% of domestic production capacity is utilized, and once production is expanded, excess will be inevitable.
The reporter learned from the industry that because China enterprises have been keen to expand production capacity, resulting in excess capacity of copper smelting and electrolytic aluminum, the profits of China enterprises have not increased correspondingly in the case of soaring international copper prices. At the end of 20 10, during the negotiation of new copper processing fee, members of the domestic negotiating team told reporters that they were confident to win the long-term processing fee agreement of 85 US dollars per ton, but in fact it did not come true.
According to the announcement of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. in February this year, the processing fee signed by the factory and BHP Billiton in the first half of this year was 72 US dollars/ton, and according to the previous judgment of the industry, such a price almost made the smelter unprofitable.
"In the future, the days of pure processing enterprises will become more and more difficult. The long-term trend of copper processing fees is to go down, and smelting enterprises will either extend upwards to seize resources or enter deep processing. " Su told reporters that without resources, it is difficult for domestic enterprises to negotiate with international miners.
Although the profit is extremely low, domestic enterprises are still keen to expand production capacity and re-take the old road of iron ore. Because of the recovery of short-term processing fees, the production reduction plan of enterprises has slowed down, and it is difficult for domestic processing enterprises to twist into a rope under the temptation of interests, which is easily broken by miners.
"When I made an offer of $80 per ton that day, we still felt very low. I didn't expect it to be lower than that in the end, but it was much higher than the 44 yuan per ton of 20 10. " A person familiar with the negotiation process told reporters that copper enterprises, like steel enterprises, seem to be alliances, but in fact they are fragmented, saying that they want to reduce production and raise prices, but in fact they are secretly expanding production capacity. Once the consumption of copper in China reaches the level of iron, copper may become another iron ore.
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