For farmers who still have food at home, they are waiting for the prices of wheat and corn to continue to rise and sell them as soon as possible.
For farmers who have no food at home, they can still maintain high prices after the harvest of new wheat and new corn this year.
In April, the prices of wheat, corn and other grains ushered in market changes, but they did not rise as expected by farmers, but fell.
The trend of corn is oscillating forward, while wheat is falling continuously. At present, food prices are at a high level, and some farmers will ask, will there be a "cliff-like" decline in April?
The price of corn fluctuates and falls steadily in many places. Since the end of March, the rising corn price has shown a downward trend. After entering April, according to the quotations of deep processing enterprises in many places, most of them are stable, and a few enterprises continue to decline.
On April 4th, corn quotations from deep processing enterprises in different regions (the price of dry food is for reference only) fell by 0.3 point (per catty, the same below) in Shandong and Jin Hui, Binzhou, with a price of 1.427 yuan/catty, a price of 1 point in Hengren Industry and Trade, and a price of 1.44 yuan/catty, and a price of 0.5 point in Chengwu osawa. In North China, Huaxing in Mengzhou fell by 0.5 point 1.45 yuan/kg, and Fenjiu in Han Yong fell by 0.5 point 1.45 yuan/kg.
Northeast China is relatively stable, among which the enterprises with higher quotations, Longjiang Fufeng 1.33 yuan/kg, Heilongjiang Chengfu 1.34 yuan/kg, Pengcheng Biochemical 1.20 yuan/kg, Fujin Yu Xiang 1.3 1 yuan.
As far as aquaculture is concerned, the current pork price is low, the enthusiasm of farmers has not reached its peak, and the willingness to expand files is not strong. The aquaculture industry is depressed, and the demand for feed is reduced. As the main feed, corn will also reduce the market demand. Naturally, the price will not continue to rise, and the decline is normal.
As far as deep processing enterprises are concerned, due to the epidemic situation and other reasons, the enthusiasm of deep processing enterprises in some areas to buy corn is also weakening, mainly by digesting stocks. Compared with the normal situation, deep processing enterprises in some areas no longer buy corn in large quantities, which also has a certain downward impact on the price trend of corn.
However, it is difficult for corn prices to fall sharply in the short term.
On the one hand, there is not much surplus grain at the grass-roots level at present, and most of it is in the hands of traders. In the subsequent price, the trader may have the right to speak, and it is unlikely that there will be a big drop according to the price he bought; On the other hand, the current high oil prices and high transportation costs are not expected to change much in the short term, which is also a factor to curb the corn crash.
Corn fluctuated in April, which is the market law and caused by many factors. It is expected that corn prices will continue to rise or fall slightly, but the probability of a sharp drop or a sharp rise is not great.
The price of wheat has dropped significantly, and the decline has widened. The price of wheat has fallen for about a week. In mid-March, the price of wheat rose to a high point. The purchase price of flour enterprises in many places exceeds 1.60 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of grass-roots wheat also exceeds 1.50 yuan/kg.
By the end of March, the price of wheat began to fall, and it continued to fall after April, and the scope of wheat decline was also expanding.
On April 4th, the quotations of wheat purchased by flour enterprises in different regions (for reference only), the flour industry in Shandong and Huatong decreased by 1 point (per catty, the same below), the quotation was 1.605 yuan/catty, and the developed group decreased by 1 point, the quotation was 1.59 yuan/catty; In Hebei, Jinsha Henan and the company fell 2 points, offering 1.59 yuan/kg; In Shangqiu, Henan Province, Wudeli decreased by 1 point, with an offer of 1.545 yuan/kg, and Suiping Keming Flour Factory decreased by 1 point, with an offer of 1.58 yuan/kg; Jinsha River in Anhui fell 1 point, price 1.60 yuan/kg; Jinsha River in Shaanxi Province fell 1 point, and the price was 1.58 yuan/kg.
After the price of wheat rose above 1.60 yuan/kg, it reached its peak. There is a saying in the industry that there will be a big drop after a big rise, from 1.40- 1.50 yuan/kg in February to 1.50- 1.60 yuan/kg in March.
According to the law, the market will plummet in the future. So, will the price of wheat fall off a cliff in April?
From the analysis of market auction, the phenomenon of full auction in the early stage no longer exists. In recent auctions, the number of auctions has increased and the auction price has decreased, which also shows that the price of wheat in the grass-roots market has decreased.
For enterprises that have successfully auctioned in the previous period, they have gradually started to leave the warehouse in the near future. The arrival of auction inventory indicates that the progress of purchasing grass-roots wheat will slow down or the purchase price will be lowered, and the demand has been mainly digested in the near future.
In addition, the wheat purchased at a high price in the early stage also indicates an increase in the price of flour.
In the past twenty days, when you buy flour, you will also find that the price of 50 kilograms of flour per bag has increased by about 8- 10 yuan.
Flour prices went up, but sales declined. For flour enterprises and distributors, they have to bear the pressure of inventory.
The most important point is that it is April, and there is still more than a month's time. The new wheat in some southern wheat areas will be harvested and listed, which is the key to affect the wheat price in April.
For flour enterprises and distributors, they dare not hoard too much wheat or flour. Once the new wheat comes into the market in May, the high-priced flour will become a stock. Therefore, it will be sold and bought in the near future, and there will be no big acquisition demand.
However, there is little possibility of a "cliff-like" decline in April. To reach the standard of "cliff-like" decline, the price will basically drop from 1.60 yuan/kg to 1.40 yuan/kg in a short time.
It is expected that it will not appear in April, and there is a greater chance of a "cliff-like" decline in late May or June.
What do you think of this?