I. Conceptual analysis

The so-called "bull market", also known as bull market, means that the stock market is generally bullish and lasts for a long time. The securities market here refers to common stocks, bonds, futures, options, foreign exchange, negotiable certificates of deposit, derivative financial products and other securities. The bull market in China began in 2006.

[Related concepts]

The so-called "bear market", also known as short market, refers to the widespread bear market and the relatively long-lasting plunge.

The so-called "balanced market", that is, "cowhide soft market", is a depressed market in which the stock price gradually sinks in the consolidation, and generally the accompanying trading volume is very small.

Second, the causes

There are more buyers than sellers in the stock market, and a bullish stock market is called a bull market. There are many factors that form a bull market, mainly including the following aspects:

① Economic factors: the increase in profits of joint-stock enterprises, economic prosperity, falling interest rates, the development of emerging industries and moderate inflation may push up the stock market price.

Political factors: government policies, laws and decrees, or sudden political events can all cause the stock price to rise.

③ Factors of the stock market itself: such as snapping up stocks, speculators shorting, and buying stocks on a large scale can all trigger a bull market.

Third, the three periods of bull market

According to the empirical data of American stock market, Dow Jones thinks that bull market can be divided into three different periods.

1, the first stage of bull market

Coincidence with part of the third stage of the bear market often occurs in the most pessimistic situation of the market. Most investors are disheartened about the market. Even if there is good news in the market, they are indifferent. Many people start to sell all the stocks at no cost. Foresighted investors, through the analysis of various economic indicators and situations, expect that the market situation will change soon and begin to gradually choose high-quality stock buyers. The market turnover gradually picked up slightly. After a period of time, many stocks flowed from blind sellers to rational investors. In the process of recovery, the market occasionally falls back, but the low point of each fall is higher than the last one, so it attracts new investors and the whole market becomes active. At this time, the operating conditions and performance of listed companies began to improve, and the increase in profits attracted investors' attention and further stimulated people's interest in entering the market.

2. The second stage of the bull market

At this time, although the market situation has obviously improved, the tragic decline of the bear market still makes investors nervous. The market is in a stalemate, neither rising nor falling, but overall, the market has a good tone and the stock price is trying to rise. This period can last for several months or even more than a year, mainly depending on the severity of the psychological blow caused by the last bear market.

3. The third stage of the bull market

After a period of wandering, the stock market turnover is getting bigger and bigger, and more and more investors enter the market. Every decline in the big market will not only prevent investors from withdrawing from the market, but will attract more investors to join. Market sentiment is high and full of optimism. In addition, the company's good news is constantly coming out, such as doubling profits and mergers and acquisitions. Listed companies also take the opportunity to raise funds on a large scale, or send bonus shares or share split to attract small and medium investors. At the end of this stage, the speculative atmosphere in the market is extremely strong. Even if there is bad news, it will be regarded as a speculative hot spot and turned into good news. The share prices of junk stocks and unpopular stocks have risen sharply, while some stable high-quality stocks have been neglected. At the same time, the heat wave of stock trading has swept all corners of society, and all walks of life, men, women and children have joined the stock trading army. When this situation develops to a certain extent, the market will turn.

Fourth, the source of bull market funds.

△ Company income

△ Money lost by other investors

△ Under normal circumstances, the stock price is a reflection of people's future expectations of XX Company. The emergence of a bull market shows that investors are optimistic about the market and are willing to spend more money on stocks. According to the relationship between supply and demand, the more people buy, the higher the price. The money earned is brought about by the price increase caused by the purchase of shares by new investors.

There is something in the world called money on paper. Not everyone will cash out when the stock market is still rising, so more money will only flow on the books. Most people are optimistic that a stock will go up, and then put all their money into it, so that the stock will go up, even exceeding the actual price of the stock.

After that, most people are not optimistic about this stock for various reasons, or this stock has exposed its due value for some reasons, or it has been manipulated artificially to create an illusion of rising or falling, and finally the person who controls this stock sells more than buying, then this stock will fall. When everyone was making money, he still held the stock and refused to sell it. This kind of people say that what they earn is actually a kind of book profit, which means that they can make money by selling stocks immediately. If he doesn't sell, he won't have cash, and the last loss includes such people.

People who receive shares at a low price will make money after being promoted. Later people will receive shares at a high price with the idea that this stock is more profitable, expecting more money to come in later to boost the stock market again, and then give the money to others when the selling volume exceeds the buying volume. Therefore, if they do more shares, it will be easier for people to lose money, and they will accidentally do the last person (no one will accept it until the price is lowered again), so they are dead.

If this decline is a return to real prices, it will be a long-term consequence. If it is artificially falling, the price depends on the ability of the operator and the prospect of the stock market. For example, the value of a kind of antiques 1W, a group of speculators think that this kind of antiques can be sold for more money, so someone will pay a higher price than now (for example, 1W2) to accept this kind of antiques and resell them after appreciation, which will one day rise to 1W4. At this time, everyone will feel that they have earned it. But suddenly one day, when most people realize that this antique is not worth the price of 1W4, but should be 1W 1One, then those who earn this antique from 1W2 will have to bear all the losses, so they can only sell it at a reduced price, but not sell it ... Maybe this antique will fall even more.

The bull market is a gold mine being mined, full of bull stocks and peanuts. However, not everyone can enjoy the feast of the bull market. Without strategic vision, courage to win, and scientific strategy, we can only doubt ourselves, experts and the market, escape from the initial shock of the bull market and fall into passivity, thus missing the magnificent market. Unfortunately, most people in the market are of this type. So we say that people and bull market, bull stock and our strategy all need fate.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) bull spread

Cattle scatter also refers to short arbitrage, that is, short near futures and short far futures.

1. Bull market spread in the forward market: (Due to insufficient supply, the demand is relatively strong, and the price of the recent peace treaty increases more than the forward or the price decreases less than the forward) Buy the recent monthly peace treaty and sell the forward monthly peace treaty at the same time.

2. Bull spread in the reverse market: Because the demand is far greater than the supply, the spot price is higher than the futures price, and the recent futures price is higher than the forward price. At this point, although the spot position fee still exists, it has been ignored and buyers are willing to bear it.

Six, the bull market risk control strategy

Many investors should not use several technical indicators to verify the trend at the same time when using the stock technical analysis method. Because several indicators have different internal methods to reflect the fluctuation speed of the market, there will be contradictory indicators at the same time, which can not correctly verify the real trend of the market outlook, leading to psychological contradictions and dilemmas in the transaction, leading to the failure of the transaction. At this time, the real reason for failure was not found, but another indicator was used when this indicator was not allowed, which formed a capricious state, started a vicious circle, and finally suffered heavy losses. In fact, the correct analysis method for technical analysis of stock market is to choose an effective technical index and stick to it all the time. Any effective technical index can't be accurate, as long as you lose less and earn more, it is effective. For example, if you only choose the moving average on the K-line chart, you can correctly analyze and judge the later trend.

Generally speaking, the moving average is designed to follow the trend. It can't go beyond the market forecast, nor can it allow traders to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price, but it can accurately grasp the fluctuation of about 70% of a wave of market, and can give a clear stop-profit or stop-loss prompt when the stock index or price turns. The rule is that when the 10 moving average crosses the 20-day moving average, the closing price of the stock price above these two moving averages is an effective golden cross, which can be bought in time. When the 10 moving average falls below the 20-day moving average, the closing price of the stock price is an effective dead fork, which can be sold in time to avoid risks.

Medium and long-term investors can buy, hold or sell according to the status of 10 moving average and 20-day moving average. Doing so can not only ensure that the income will not shrink, but also intervene in time when the stock price rises for the second time, so as not to step on the air.

In the bull market, if you insist on holding the stocks in your hand, you will get good returns, but it is difficult to untie the quilt stocks, especially the deeply stuck stocks, without band operation. Therefore, investors with quilt cover can also operate the band according to the tips of the 10 moving average and the 20-day moving average, so as to avoid risks, untie the quilt as soon as possible and make profits.

Seven, the source of the word bull market

[Statement 1]

As far as all the information at present is concerned, in the UK of 1785, the words "cow" and "bear" have appeared in a book called "Guide to Small Street Exchanges". However, at that time, the meaning of bull and bear was different from now. At that time, the London Stock Exchange was called the Small Street Exchange.

According to the author of this book, it can be seen that the meaning of cattle and bears was much clearer more than it is now. Cattle doesn't mean people who want the stock market to rise, but people who bought stocks on margin today but lost money.

The tulip exchange in the Netherlands invented the margin system as early as the middle of17th century, but in London of 1785, it seems that there is no margin for buying stocks, so "cows" can buy stocks without spending a penny, hoping to sell them before paying the money. According to the practice at that time, even if a person's total property was less than 10, he could buy shares on the London Stock Exchange. For example, this person can buy stocks worth 40,000 pounds in March and pay in May, and the financing multiple is as high as four or five thousand times.

Before the settlement, this person can try his best to sell the stocks he bought and get rid of the super heavy burden on his shoulders. If cows gather in the whole market and he can't find anyone to take over, he will suffer heavy losses. Therefore, before paying, he had to travel all over the exchange, from one cell to another, and find someone to take over. His heart is full of hope and fear, his expression is uncertain, his mood is low, his face is unhappy, and he has a bad temper, just like an ox. So this kind of hand is called "cow".

More than 200 years ago, Xiong was not only a pessimist, but also an actual short seller, that is, he sold a batch of stocks or bonds and agreed to hand over what he didn't actually own at some time in the future, so he kept looking for someone to buy the securities he had to hand over at a low price in the future. Therefore, for all the unfortunate news, bad news, rumors that may depress the stock price, etc., he will be very happy and gloat.

Therefore, it was easy to distinguish between cattle and bears at that time. The person with a heavy and melancholy expression must be a cow, and the person who keeps looking around and scaring people with bad news must be a bear. Cattle want the share price to go up, while bears want the share price to go down. Later, people may call the rising stock market a bull market and the falling stock market a bear market.

[Statement 2]

According to records, these two stock market terms appeared in the American stock market at the beginning of19th century. Bears first appeared and were recorded in 1709. First of all, it refers to selling stocks that will be issued in the future but have not been listed because of the expected decline in share prices, so that speculators can buy stocks at a lower price. This kind of speculator is called cowhide wholesaler, which comes from the sentence "sell bearskin first" Slowly, this phrase means becoming more and more pessimistic about the stock price. In order to distinguish the ups and downs of the market, they take the striding cow as a symbol of ups and downs, which means that the upward trend is unstoppable, while the stubbornly entangled bear as a symbol of the decline means that the end of the decline is far away. The usage of bull market appears in 17 14, which is also influenced by bear market.

[Statement 3]

Because the bull is attacking upward (the horn is pushed upward), it represents the bull market and bullish, and the stock price goes up; The bear's paw swings downward, which means that the market is short, the interest rate is negative, and the stock price falls.

Eight. Attachment: Three stages of bear market

1, the first stage of the bear market. Its initial stage is the last stage of the third stage of the bull market, which often appears in the highest investment climate in the market. At this time, the market is absolutely optimistic, and investors are completely unaware of the changes in the market outlook. All kinds of good news abound in the market, and the company's performance and profits have reached an abnormal peak. Many enterprises accelerated their expansion during this period, and news of mergers and acquisitions came out frequently. Just when the vast majority of investors are crazy about the stock market rally, a few wise investors and individual big families have begun to gradually withdraw their funds or wait and see. Therefore, although the transactions in the market are very hot, there are also signs of gradual cooling down. At this point, if the stock price rises further, but the volume can't keep up, there may be a big drop. During this period, the stock price fell, and many people still think that this decline is only a callback in the process of rising. In fact, this is the beginning of the stock market crash.

2. The second stage of the bear market. At this stage, the stock market will trigger "panic selling" as soon as there is a sign of trouble. On the one hand, there are too many hot spots in the market, and people who want to buy are hesitant because they are difficult to choose. On the other hand, more people began to rush to sell, which aggravated the sharp drop in stock prices. In the market where credit trading is allowed, speculators engaged in short selling are hit harder. They are often forced to sell because of the pressure to repay the integrated funds, so the stock price is falling faster and faster, and it is out of control. After a round of crazy selling, the stock price plummeted, investors will feel that the decline is a bit excessive, because the current situation and economic environment of listed companies have not reached such a pessimistic level, so the market will rebound and rebound. This mid-term rebound may last for weeks or months, and the rebound or rebound range is generally one-third to one-half of the total decline of the whole market.

3. The third stage of the bear market. After a period of mid-term rebound, the economic situation and the prospects of listed companies tend to deteriorate, the company's performance declines, and financial difficulties. A variety of bad news that is difficult to distinguish between true and false followed, further undermining investor confidence. At this time, the whole stock market was filled with pessimism, and the stock price rebounded and fell sharply. In the third phase of the bear market, the stock price continued to fall, but the decline did not intensify. Because those stocks with poor quality have almost fallen in the first and second periods, it is unlikely that they will fall again. At this time, due to the collapse of market confidence, falling stocks are concentrated in blue-chip stocks and high-quality stocks with good performance. This stage coincides with the beginning of the first stage of the bull market, and far-sighted and rational investors will think that this is the best time to absorb. At this time, they will buy low-priced and high-quality stocks and get rich returns after the market rebounds.

Generally speaking, the experience time of a bear market is shorter than that of a bull market, accounting for only one-third to one-half of that of a bull market. But the specific time of each bear market is different, because the market and economic environment will be very different. Looking back at the period from 1993 to 1997, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China experienced a sharp rise and fall in stock prices, which was a complete periodic process from cattle to bears, and then from bears to cattle.