The real estate market may be in a relatively stable state due to the rapid rise and recent policy repression, but it remains to be seen whether there will be a new round of stock market rise and a clear bubble in the future.
There are two factors that have great influence on the price. First, food prices that affect CPI account for more than 30%. Although the impact of international commodity prices on CPI and PPI has a lag period, it will not be too long. If international commodities, including oil, continue to rise, it will put greater upward pressure on CPI and PPI. Some people say that oil price adjustment has little effect on prices. In absolute statistics, the possible direct impact is only a few tenths. However, after the oil price rises, it will bring a series of price increase effects to the costs of all walks of life, which can not be ignored.
Personally, I think China's economy should pay attention to prevent overheating from now on, including GDP, prices, asset prices and other aspects, so I said that if the economy heats up, we should pay attention to prevent overheating.
The credit structure has changed significantly this year, and many of them have flowed to the manufacturing industry, that is, the real economy. From now on, commercial banks will tighten loans to developers.
In order to prevent the economy from overheating, various policies need to be well coordinated. In the future, monetary policy is likely to play a leading role as a quantitative tool, including open market operation, central bank bill repurchase operation, deposit reserve ratio adjustment, credit and so on. Now, the most flexible is the open market operation.
If the United States stays put, our interest rate hike will further promote capital inflows, and we will use it cautiously considering possible pressures and side effects. In the future, I think the most important factor to stimulate interest rate hikes is price. If the CPI is above 3% for several months in a row, and there is an obvious bubble in asset prices, it is possible to raise interest rates this year. From the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, this possibility is relatively large, and the impact on the real economy itself will not be too great, but it will send a clear and strong signal that credit needs to be tightened.
Yu Guangsheng, a postdoctoral fellow at Fudan University School of Management: In the post-crisis era, enterprises should pay more attention to long-term countermeasures.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, enterprises in China have developed in a relatively moderate and balanced situation, from a seller's market that is in short supply to a buyer's market that is now fiercely competitive. Now many enterprises are not fully prepared, so the challenges they face are real.
Many small and medium-sized enterprises, located in the vertical downstream of the global industrial chain, do not have the ability to control their own development, lack brands, lack the ability of independent innovation and independent research and development, and the whole production chain is fluctuating, making it difficult to grasp their own destiny.
If China's economy has been developing at a high speed in a moderate environment, it may lead to mud and sand, and some enterprises with poor quality can survive and develop when the economy is booming, occupying resources that could have been used for better development, and there are unhealthy components in the whole economic system. Therefore, the crisis is not necessarily a bad thing. The enterprise with foresight has good strategic planning, long-term vision and independent development ability. In the face of the current economic situation, there is no big problem, income may be reduced, but the viability will not be reduced. On the contrary, it may seize the opportunity in the crisis. In hindsight, enterprises can also reflect when the general trend is not good. Through the crisis, if "unconscious enterprises" can be eliminated, it will do a good thing objectively.
Facing the crisis, enterprises can make adjustments in four aspects in a short time, including restructuring, reducing costs, reducing investment and not blindly moving. In addition to these short-term considerations, we should pay more attention to long-term countermeasures.
In the long run, the enterprise strategy in the post-crisis era mainly considers three points:
First, we must have a positive attitude. A survey of a large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu shows that a considerable number of enterprises lack foresight and enthusiasm for future development, and some enterprises are used to using their funds for real estate speculation, stock speculation, futures speculation and art speculation.
Secondly, we should review the strategy based on the industry and make development plans around the current main business. How wide is it? That is, where is the horizontal boundary of the industry; How long will it take? Where is the vertical boundary of the industry; How far is it? Where is the spatial boundary of the industry? Only when such problems are thought clearly can the development strategy of the whole enterprise have a clear idea.
Third, take value innovation as the core of the enterprise. Creating a brand-new industry is the most fundamental innovation; Value innovation is not to develop a certain technology or brand-new products, but to increase the value of customers; Rule innovation is to rebuild an industry with new game rules.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, value innovation may be the most fundamental path, without a lot of resources precipitation and investment, just need to make some adjustments in the way of thinking and angle.
Feng Ming, General Manager and Chief Analyst of China International Futures Research Center: There is great uncertainty in the A-share market.
Europe is still in crisis, the overall situation of the whole euro is very bad, and the euro system itself has problems, so that the euro will be weaker than the dollar in the case of currency exchange rate comparison, and the dollar can become a refuge in the case of uncertain global exchange rate changes.
The rise of the dollar should not be smooth sailing, and more cooperation may be needed, including the current recovery of the US economy. In the second and third quarters of this year, the strength of the US dollar will be obvious. The change of asset price is one of the factors that restrict the dollar. In addition, economic growth and inflation are important aspects that affect commodity prices.
The data of American economy is quite good. At present, the economic recovery is slowly taking shape, which has also stimulated investors' confidence. Judging from the current form of US stocks, there is indeed room for further improvement.
There are great uncertainties in the A-share market and European stock markets. The A-share market is uncertain in the coming year. Judging from the past two or three months, there is basically no obvious positive trend in large-cap stocks. The expectation of raising interest rates due to overheating is very strong, and how to withdraw from the policy is the biggest uncertainty in the stock market this year. Suppressing house prices and the pressure of RMB appreciation will have an impact on the stock market.
China's Future Economic Growth Point
Li Ping, Partner of Lin Jing Asset Management Co., Ltd.:
This year, due to the rising cost of manufacturing enterprises, such as the rising price of raw materials, the rising cost is still relatively obvious, but the service industry or some emerging industries have no particularly obvious feelings.
New energy, environmental protection, and some innovative modes such as medical care, education and media that are in line with China's future development direction and promote consumption growth will benefit these industries for a long time.
I am still optimistic in the next one to three years. From the perspective of IPO issuance, for example, although there is a bubble in the GEM at the beginning, there may be some adjustments, but the issuance speed and momentum will continue for some time, and the growth momentum of SMEs is very strong. In the next two or three years, SMEs and GEM will still have more opportunities for PE investors.
Wang Nan, General Manager of Jindi Hangzhou Company:
Writer San Mao said that love can't be said, and it's wrong to say it. The current real estate market is similar to love, and it is basically unpredictable. I personally hope that this industry can develop steadily and healthily, and ordinary people can afford to buy a house.
There is little room for iron ore negotiation.
Lian Ping: The iron ore negotiation situation is quite grim. Our demand for iron ore has been increasing. There is no stable demand in the short term, and there is no suitable shrinking state. There is not much room for discussion. It may change after hard negotiations, but it is difficult to break the existing price state. Steel prices are bound to rise, and the question in the future is whether the operating pressure brought by the price increase of iron ore in the international market can be digested by the price increase, which is a huge challenge faced by steel enterprises.
Yu Guangsheng:
The price of iron ore will definitely go up. It is a non-renewable resource, and the price trend of non-renewable things has been rising. The reason why the price can't come down is also related to the interest game. Iron ore is basically monopolized by sellers. We are involved in the game in many ways, and the transaction cost is high and the price can't come down.