Finally, as everyone hoped, oil prices returned to the "5 yuan era." Since 24:00 on March 17, domestic gasoline prices have been reduced by 1,015 yuan per ton, and diesel prices have been reduced by 975 yuan per ton. This reduction is the largest decrease since the introduction of the new version of the refined oil pricing mechanism in 2013. Based on the estimated capacity of a typical private car fuel tank of 50 liters, filling up a tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost you 41 yuan less, significantly reducing travel costs.
The reason why domestic oil prices can return to the "5 yuan era" is because international crude oil has become so "cheap" that it is not even as good as water. For example, global oil prices suffered an "epic" plunge on March 9, with Brent crude oil futures falling 31.5% to only $31.02 per barrel. This was the largest drop since the outbreak of the Gulf War on January 17, 1991. According to forecasts by relevant agencies, the average daily increase in global oil demand in 2020 will be reduced by 365,000 barrels to 825,000 barrels, the lowest growth rate since 2010. If the COVID-19 epidemic is not effectively controlled, global crude oil demand will only decrease rather than increase in 2020, and prices will not fluctuate much.
If oil prices really remain low for a long time, what impact will it have on all walks of life in the country? Especially for the new energy vehicle industry, which is supported by the state, with the downward trend of oil prices, will the market slump be exacerbated?
Low oil prices embarrass new energy vehicles
Does oil price have any impact on consumers’ purchase of new energy sources? If there is no impact, it is definitely not objective, because some people choose new energy vehicles mainly to save vehicle costs. After all, new energy vehicles do not burn oil when charging. As long as they can save fuel costs, they can save a lot of money.
We can simply do some calculations. In the past, the price of No. 92 gasoline was about 6.32 yuan, and the average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers was 8L. The total operating cost per kilometer was about 0.5 yuan. Now the price of No. 92 gasoline has dropped to 5.5 yuan, then the operating cost per kilometer will drop to about 0.4 yuan; in terms of pure electric vehicles, based on the current commonly used ternary lithium battery power consumption of 14KWh per 100 kilometers, the cost per 100 kilometers using home slow charging is about 0.15~0.2 yuan, if it is fast charging, it may cost about 0.3 yuan. It can be seen that as oil prices continue to fall, the gap in operating costs between the two types of vehicles will further narrow.
The narrowing of the cost gap is simply bad news for pure electric vehicles. According to a study by the University of Chicago and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, if the international oil price exceeds US$350 per barrel, gasoline vehicles will be completely eliminated by electric vehicles. If oil prices only remain at $50/barrel, electric vehicles will struggle until a qualitative breakthrough is achieved in battery technology. The current crude oil price is US$30/barrel.
I dare not say arbitrarily that low oil prices will definitely put electric vehicles into trouble, but it is certain that this will cause investors to worry about the demand for new energy vehicles. Affected by the drop in oil prices, the stock prices of some new energy vehicle companies also fell sharply. On March 9, the closing prices of Tesla and NIO fell by more than 13.73% and 14.93% respectively, while Tesla also adjusted and fell from the highest of $968.99. To around US$600, the cumulative decline reached 25.85%, and the company's total market value shrank by nearly US$33.8 billion. In addition, battery supplier CATL also fell 7.02%, losing a total market value of more than 22.2 billion yuan.
Affected by the dual factors of the epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are not optimistic. Judging from the February passenger car production and sales data recently released by the Passenger Car Association, domestic new energy passenger car sales in February were 14,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 69.5%, and the cumulative sales from January to February were 56,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 61.4%. On the one hand, subsidies and sales of new energy vehicles have declined sharply, and on the other hand, falling oil prices have made the cost of fuel vehicles more attractive. This situation is unfavorable to the new energy industry.
Oil prices determine the life and death of electric vehicles, but China is an exception
Seeing this, do you think China's new energy vehicle industry will further "cool down" or even "cool down"? Don’t worry, read some common sense related to the Chinese market first, and then make a judgment.
First of all, there are "ceiling prices" and "floor prices" for domestic refined oil price regulation. The upper limit of the regulation is US$130 per barrel, and the lower limit is US$40 per barrel. That is to say, no matter how much the international oil price drops in the future, as long as it is within the range of 40 US dollars, the domestic oil price will not be adjusted again, which also means that the cost advantage of new energy vehicles will not be reduced.
In addition, the development of new energy vehicles is very important to the overall development of China's automobile industry. On the one hand, the development of new energy vehicles will help alleviate energy pressure and reduce China's dependence on foreign oil. On the other hand, the development of new energy vehicles will help promote the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry and provide China with new and huge development opportunities. Therefore, the government will launch more favorable policies in the future to stabilize or even increase the overall sales of new energy vehicles.
Therefore, neither consumers nor car companies need to worry about oil prices affecting the development of new energy vehicles. For car companies, the most important thing now is to improve new energy vehicle technology faster and make their products more competitive.
This year's new cars are indeed worth looking forward to, such as Volkswagen ID.3, BMW ix3, domestic Model 3 long-range rear-wheel drive version, GAC New Energy's new SUVaionV, etc. These new cars are no less attractive than traditional fuel vehicles. In addition, after years of development, the battery life of new energy vehicles has also made great progress. The cruising range is close to the level of half a tank of ordinary cars. For example, the NEDC operating range of the Xpeng P7 even reaches 709km.
The reduction in oil prices can indeed reduce the vehicle costs for owners of traditional fuel vehicles, but this does not mean that the domestic new energy vehicle market will fall into "difficulty." Next, with the support of various favorable domestic policies and the continuous breakthrough of new energy vehicle technology, we can see better prospects for domestic new energy.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.