According to the corn price system, the purchase price of some enterprises in Shandong has risen to 1.5 yuan. There are several reasons for the increase in corn prices after the year:
1, the surplus grain in the hands of grassroots farmers is gradually decreasing;
2. The rise of international food prices drives the rise of domestic futures prices, and the spot price also rises;
3. Deep processing enterprises and traders are optimistic about the market price and actively open positions.
With the corn price returning to 1.5 yuan again, can the subsequent corn price go up? I think there are four judgments. Let's take a concrete look.
Judgment one. International corn prices may rise further.
According to statistics, China imported 28.35 million tons of corn in 20021year, and the industry predicts that the import will exceed 30 million tons in 2022, which means that the corn price in China will be more and more influenced by the international corn price.
For the subsequent international corn prices, the industry is generally bullish.
On the one hand, Ukraine, which accounts for 3.5% of the world's total corn production, not only faces the problem of the interruption of Black Sea trade caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also faces the problem of the decline of corn planting area.
On the other hand, affected by rising planting costs and reduced profits, American farmers switched from planting corn to planting soybeans, which reduced the expected corn planting area, but increased the demand, because the rising oil price increased the consumption of fuel ethanol in some countries, and the continuous drought in Brazil and Argentina almost made the international corn supply tight.
Although the price of corn may rise further, it will not rise sharply because the supply in the global corn market is still loose. According to the US Department of Agriculture's February supply and demand announcement, the global corn output will reach10.205 billion tons in 2002/22, which is enough to meet the market demand.
Judgment two. Domestic demand for corn is still high.
The rise in domestic oil prices will also boost the demand for corn to produce fuel ethanol.
Needless to say, since the second half of last year, domestic pig breeding has faced huge losses, and the pig industry has started the mode of de-capacity, but the speed of de-capacity is slow. At present, the number of fertile sows in China is still as high as 42.68 million, far exceeding the number of fertile sows. Recently, the industry is generally optimistic about the pig price in the second half of the year and even next year. Some pig farms have the operation of replenishing sows, which means that the feed demand is still large.
Previously, the main raw materials of domestic feed were corn and wheat. At present, the price of wheat has risen to 1.6 yuan, and its substitution advantage in feed has disappeared, which means that the domestic demand for corn will remain high in the future.
Third, the difference between domestic and international corn prices has narrowed.
According to media reports, in February, the landing price of imported corn at the southern port of China was equivalent to RMB 1.32 yuan, which was 0.09 yuan lower than that of domestic corn, while the price of imported corn at the southern port was 2. 12 yuan, which was 0.7 1 yuan higher than that of domestic corn.
Subsequent international corn prices will further rise, so the price difference between domestic and foreign corn prices will further narrow, which will not affect the total corn imports, but will affect the domestic corn prices, and the increase in imported corn prices will drive the domestic corn prices to further rise.
Judge the opening price of new season wheat.
Before the new season of corn goes on the market, the only factor that is unfavorable to the price of corn may be the new season of wheat. At present, the wheat conditions in various wheat producing areas are good. If there is no extreme weather, the high yield of wheat is likely to have a certain impact on the price of corn.
The insiders believe that the open-scale price of wheat in the new season will be at 1.4- 1.45 yuan, which is relatively high, but it still has obvious advantages to replace corn, which will put pressure on corn, and then put pressure on its high price.
However, the specific situation still depends on the reactions of farmers, traders, flour enterprises, feed enterprises and other aspects after the listing of new wheat.
Conclusion: Although the price of corn is under certain pressure, a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of domestic corn supply and demand and the trend of international corn price can predict that the price of corn will rise further in the future.