On Monday, all the major indexes closed red, but after the two cities opened higher, they showed a trend of strong and weak differentiation in Shanghai, with a total turnover of 823 1 100 million. Disk observation, mining, building materials, banking and other industries were among the top gainers, while media, food and beverage, computer and other industries were among the top losers. The daily limit of the two cities was 1 12, with a daily limit of 53. The net purchase amount of northbound funds was 5.552 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.03% to 3,429.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.96% to13,456.65 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3 1% to 29 17.86 points.
market outlook
Before the festival, we mentioned in the column that according to past experience, the tide of fund self-purchase is almost accompanied by the emergence of policy bottom. Judging from the deviation between the valuation percentile of the mainstream index and the annual line of the index, there is a demand for mean return and rebound in the market. When the Spring Festival holiday is superimposed, the external market generally rises, the market sentiment is restored, and the "emotional bottom" that everyone generally expects is being built.
The industries with the highest growth rate today all come from the two concepts we mentioned before: steady growth and inflation. A few days ago, the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission said that infrastructure investment was moderately ahead of schedule and the implementation of the Tenth Five-Year Plan 102 major projects was solidly promoted. According to the statistics of the Securities Daily reporter, as of February 6th, eight provinces and cities including Shandong, Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Sichuan have released the investment list of major projects in 2022, with a total investment of at least 15.6 trillion yuan. The orderly promotion of countercyclical control policies will directly benefit listed companies related to infrastructure and building materials. In addition, it is worth noting that the international oil price has risen for seven consecutive weeks, and the new york light crude oil futures price has stood at the 9 1 USD mark for the first time in seven years. In the column, we have repeatedly reminded that we need to pay attention to the opportunities of commodities under inflation expectations. On the one hand, the rise of crude oil comes from the increase of demand, and more importantly, the deepening of global carbon neutrality awareness and concerns about ESG. The capital cost of capital investment in the resource industry is getting higher and higher, which is a concern about the supply of goods. This dislocation logic of demand and supply growth also applies to other commodities.
Operation strategy
In operation, although the "emotional bottom" of A-shares is taking shape, the trend of exponential differentiation from today may mean that bottoming is not achieved overnight. It is suggested that the market rebound should still be dealt with with with the left layout thinking. In terms of industry selection, it is suggested to pay attention to finance under the expectation of steady growth, TMT and midstream of new energy in the new and old infrastructure opportunities, and the suggestions under the expectation of inflation should pay attention to opportunities in cement, steel, oil and gas and coal industries.
Li, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number S0260612110012.