According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig price has been falling for 16 weeks, with a cumulative drop of 3 1.7%.
What is the current situation of pig supply? What is the profit and loss of the pig industry? When will the pig price decline cycle stop?
At present, China's pig production and supply are sufficient, but the demand is shrinking and the staged surplus is more obvious.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters.
From the production point of view, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig slaughter volume increased by 23.6% in June 6- 10/October this year, 8.2% in February, and 30.8% in June-February.
At the end of 2002/kloc-0, there were 449 million live pigs in China, up 10.5% year-on-year. These pigs will be put on the market from June to June this year.
From this calculation, the pork market supply was still at a high level in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of expenditure, the seasonal decline in pork expenditure superimposed the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. After the Spring Festival, the pork expenditure is obviously weak, and the production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, but it needs to be contracted, and the cycle surplus is more obvious.
Judging from the number of fertile sows, it has been declining for eight consecutive months since last July, but due to the rebound of pig prices and the replenishment of reserve sows, the number of fertile sows is still higher than 4 1 10,000. In the same period, due to the continuous reduction of productivity of obsolete sows, the reproductive efficiency of fertile sows has returned to the level before African swine fever.
Zhu Zengyong estimated that from March, the reduction of the number of fertile sows in China may increase, and the fertile sows will gradually fall back to a reasonable production range in the second quarter.
On March 22nd, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held part of the coordination meeting, requiring all localities to strengthen information monitoring and early warning of the whole hog industry chain, actively guiding financial institutions to increase credit policy support, stabilizing long-term support policies such as farming land and environmental protection, accurately implementing the regulation of pig production capacity and the adjustment of frozen pork storage and storage, continuously grasping the normalization prevention and control of African swine fever, promoting the stable and healthy development of pig production, and helping farmers tide over the difficulties.
The decline in pig prices has gradually narrowed.
From June this year, the oversupply of commercial pigs is expected to ease, the supply and demand of pork will turn to a basic balance, and the price of pigs will rise seasonally.
Zhu Zengyong said.
According to the monitoring data of markets and collection points in 500 counties of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fourth week of March, the average price per kilogram of live pigs in China was 12.52 yuan, down by 0.8% month-on-month and 54.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative decrease of 3 1.7% in 16 weeks. The average price of pork per kilogram was 22.38 yuan, down 1.2% from the previous month and 49.2% from the same period last year, with a cumulative decrease of 22.6%. The average price per kilogram of piglets was 23.86 yuan, down 1.2% from the previous month and down 74.4% from the same period last year.
According to the production cost data in recent years, the price of pig food at the break-even point of pig production is about 7∶ 1.
When the price of pig and grain is lower than 5∶ 1, it is regarded as entering the first-class oversold warning range.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national price of pig food in February was 4.90∶ 1, which was 0.5 1 point lower than that in October.
Since March, the central and local governments have started pork purchasing and storage in an all-round way, which has eased the situation that pig prices have fallen too fast, and the decline in pig prices has gradually narrowed.
Zhu Zengyong told reporters that pig prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the near future, and pig prices in Northeast China and other departments have rebounded slightly.
Recently, due to the prevention and control of epidemic situation in COVID-19, the roads in departments and regions are not smooth, and the pig slaughter in departments and regions is blocked. In addition, farmers are reluctant to sell at high prices, and the enthusiasm for pig slaughter is not high. It is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase, and the bullish sentiment in the market outlook is strengthened.
The market supply and demand situation is gradually reversed, which is expected to drive the national pig price to stop falling.
However, due to the cost, especially the cost of going out, it is difficult for the consumer to support the continuous rebound of pig prices, and the overall pig price is expected to stabilize at a low level.
With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation in COVID-19, pig prices will face some downward pressure in the later period.
At present, the pig price is lower than 20 19, but higher than 20 18. It is estimated that there is not much room for landing in the later period.
At the end of the second quarter, affected by the decline in the supply of piglets at the beginning of the year, the oversupply situation of commercial pigs is expected to ease in June, the supply and demand of pork will turn to a basic balance, and the price of pigs will rise seasonally. In the second half of the year, pig prices may fluctuate around the capital line as a whole.
Since June 2003, the fluctuation of live pig price in China has experienced four complete cycles.
The continuous time resolution of these four complete cycles is 36 months, 36 months, 59 months and 49 months, and each complete cycle includes a rising period and a falling period.
At present, in the fifth cycle, from June 20 18 to the end of August 2020, there are 27 months in the upward channel, and from September 2020, 19 months in the downward channel, which lasts for 46 months in total, and the time span is close to that of the previous cycle.
This suggests that the decline may have ended.