1, the influence of upstream raw materials

The impact of upstream raw material price changes on polypropylene is mainly reflected in the cost. According to the current production technology, polypropylene mainly comes from five kinds: crude oil, coal, methanol, propylene and PDH. Among them, crude oil, as the main raw material of polypropylene, has great influence on the price trend of polypropylene. The rise of crude oil price is transmitted to the downstream through production costs and other means, which makes the price of polypropylene rise; The drop in crude oil price has impacted the mentality of market makers and downstream manufacturers to a certain extent, which makes the market wait-and-see atmosphere continue to be strong, the downstream willingness to receive goods decreases, and the market inventory increases, leading to the decline in polypropylene prices.

2. Impact of downstream demand

The market price of polypropylene will also fluctuate with the change of downstream demand. When the economy enters the upward cycle, the downstream plastic products industry develops rapidly, the demand is strong, and the supply is relatively insufficient, which will promote the market price of polypropylene to rise; On the contrary, when the economy enters the down cycle, the demand of downstream industries will weaken, while the supply of upstream industries will be sufficient, which will lead to a decline in market prices.

Second, raw material factors.

The raw materials needed to produce polypropylene have a great influence on the price of polypropylene. If the price of raw materials is high, the cost of producing polypropylene will be high, so the market price of polypropylene will be high; If the price of raw materials is low, the production cost of polypropylene will be low, and the price of polypropylene will be reduced accordingly.

Third, the impact of macroeconomic policies.

For the plastic industry, the introduction of policies is the vane of enterprise development and even directly affects the development direction of the plastic industry. When the plastic industry has overcapacity, the policy of eliminating backward production capacity becomes a necessary means; When the financial crisis struck, the export trade of plastics industry was greatly affected. At this time, national policies are needed to support the development of domestic demand, and relevant national policies are the development direction of the plastic industry.

Fourth, market fluctuation factors.

The price fluctuation of polypropylene in China is very violent. 2065438+Since March 2008, the price of polypropylene has dropped with the fluctuation of crude oil price. It reached the lowest point in 2065438+early June 2009, in which the national average production reduction level of PP fell to a low level of 78 1 1 yuan/ton. Judging from the passive situation during the year, the fluctuation is also more intense.

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