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Is the stock market’s plunge in the second quarter of 2017 the same as in 2015?

The situation is very different from 2015

“Recently, some small and medium-cap stocks in the market have fallen significantly, and many securities trust products have indeed closed their positions.” Speaking of the market Relevant people from a certain trust company are not shy about paying attention to the "flash crash" stocks.

According to this person, the reason why there were more trust products in the "flash crash" incident that the market is paying attention to is mainly because a large number of securities companies' asset management plans have been transferred to trust channels since the second half of last year. .

According to the "Guidelines for Risk Control Indicators of Asset Management Subsidiaries of Specific Clients of Fund Management Companies" (Draft for Comments) and the "Interim Provisions on the Operation and Management of Private Equity Asset Management Business of Securities and Futures Operating Institutions", relevant asset management businesses are Regulatory requirements have significantly reduced leverage, and the channel businesses previously carried out by fund subsidiaries and brokerage asset management are facing comprehensive tightening, and a large number of capital allocation businesses have also been transferred to trust channels.

“Some trust companies began to develop structured securities investment business in the second half of last year. The current stock of related products is relatively large, so there have been trust plans behind the ‘flash crash’ stocks mentioned in media reports. situation." said the aforementioned person.

An executive of another trust company told reporters that although there was what some market participants called a "panic flash crash," the priority involved in the products his company was liquidated was None of the clients suffered losses, and unlike the 2015 market crash when many bad accounts were closed and there were many complaints, this time there were no complaints from bad customers. Therefore, in his view, the liquidation behind the so-called "flash crash" is actually a normal situation, and the market does not need to over-interpret it.

It is worth noting that according to the reporter’s understanding, many market participants said that even though a group of stocks fell rapidly during the session, the current market situation is different from that when many accounts were liquidated in 2015. The situation of closing a position is very different. "Whether it is the number of accounts involved or the panic, it is different." A market source said.

The aforementioned trust company executives also revealed that due to previous strict regulations on the leverage ratio of structured capital allocation products by regulators, the current capital ratio between priority and inferior funds cannot exceed 2:1. Therefore, from the perspective of leverage level, the leverage ratio in the current market is not as high as in 2015.

As for the market outlook, although the current index is still fluctuating at a low level, in the view of some market participants, the A-share market has fallen sharply in just over a month, which has actually dealt with many negative consequences. fully released. According to Wu Zhaoyin, director of macro strategy at AVIC Trust, although stricter supervision is a trend, the market's current performance is a bit overreacted, so there is rebound momentum in the short term.

Wu Zhaoyin pointed out that the current investment in the secondary market has returned to value again, and performance has become one of the important basis for current stock selection. Therefore, growth stocks represented by the small and medium-sized boards and the GEM are still facing greater valuation pressure. The current "19" market will continue, and blue-chip stocks with performance foundations will also continue to be favored by institutions. He believes that the current investment strategy is still to buy white horse stocks with performance, which are characterized by three "twos": price-to-earnings ratio of 20-30 times; earnings per share growth rate of 20%-30%; market value of about 20 billion yuan - 50 billion yuan.