A shares have broken another historical record.
From May 8, 2065438 to July 8, 2005, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion for 43 consecutive trading days.
As of September 24th, 20021year, the turnover of A shares has exceeded one trillion for 46 consecutive trading days, and it seems that it can continue to make history.
The trend is surging, investors expect the market to return to 4000 points for many years, and expect securities to become the most important investment variety. This scene may not be far away.
Looking back on the performance of A-shares in recent years, the biggest contributor to record-breaking is cyclical industry.
Iron, steel, coal and non-ferrous chemicals are booming, and the whole A-share even once set off the craze of "learning the periodic table of elements".
If you want to say the reason, you can't do without crazy goods.
Driven by the global economic cycle, commodity prices soared. Large-scale inflation has led to the price increase of products of upstream enterprises of raw materials, which is finally transmitted to the stock market, and has also promoted the stock price increase of cyclical industries.
In fact, this just explains why.
The core hard logic of China's recycling industry actually comes from carbon neutrality.
"Double control of energy consumption" Why do these provinces have to limit electricity?
Many friends may wonder that the pollution of traditional recycling industries such as coal and steel is generally high, isn't it against the general direction of carbon neutrality? How does it benefit from carbon neutrality?
What we must know here is that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved overnight, and the adjustment of energy and industrial structure needs a process.
In this process, while new energy sources such as photovoltaic wind power are gradually growing, traditional energy sources such as coal and oil are still needed to maintain the normal operation of the energy system.
In cyclical industries such as iron and steel nonferrous metals, only the production capacity that meets certain environmental protection standards can stay, and a large number of backward production capacity will be quickly eliminated.
Listed companies in cycle industries are often the leaders in their respective fields. With the clearance of backward production capacity, the bargaining power and competitiveness have been further improved, and the performance has advanced by leaps and bounds.
But this has aggravated the contradiction between energy and production capacity.
On August 17, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer on the Completion of Double Control Targets of Energy Consumption by Region in the First Half of 2002/KLOC-0". Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu provinces (regions) saw their energy intensity rise instead of falling in the first half of the year, which was a first-class warning and the situation was grim.
Coal is the cyclical variety with the biggest increase this year. Since mid-August, the price of thermal coal futures has increased by as much as 50% only 1 month, and the coal stocks of power plants in eight coastal provinces have dropped rapidly, and the available days have dropped to only 10, which is very dangerous.
Lin, dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that the power demand in China increased by more than 10% this year, which greatly exceeded the previous forecast of 6% to 7% demand growth.
China's thermal power generation accounts for more than 70%, and it is still the core type of power generation in China. The increase of electricity demand directly leads to the continuous rise of coal-fired electricity prices.
Subsequently, many places introduced strict policies to limit electricity production, which is the strictest in history.
For example, Jiangxi, Jiangsu and other places adjust the electricity price mechanism, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other places implement the power restriction policy, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other places put forward the upper limit of industrial product output, and Zhejiang and other places arrange centralized maintenance.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of coking coal, crude steel and cement in August dropped sharply year-on-year, and the output of aluminum also contracted month-on-month.
Chemical industry, electrolytic aluminum, cement and other high-energy industries bear the brunt, and the prices have risen accordingly.
"Double control of energy consumption" is a hot word in the capital market recently. Understanding the dual control of energy consumption can help us understand a series of recent measures.
As the name implies, dual control of energy consumption refers to controlling the total amount and intensity of energy consumption at the same time, and specific measures can be embodied in limiting electricity and production.
On September 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Plan for Improving the Dual Control of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Amount, aiming at further strengthening and improving the dual control of energy consumption and helping to achieve the strategic goal of "peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality".
The comprehensive promotion of "double control of energy consumption" further limits the product capacity of various cyclical industries. However, because the demand side is not restricted, it seems inevitable that the prices of related products will rise again.
Generally speaking, the core logic is that carbon neutrality begins to limit production in an all-round way, and the high-quality production capacity of the cyclical industry takes all the winners.
Under the power cut, the dangerous organic ordinary manufacturing industry must upgrade a new generation of "chemical wool" and be ready to go.
China's manufacturing industry must be upgraded, otherwise it will lose money and earn money.
This power cut has a great impact on some enterprises.
It is understood that on September 22, a number of A-share listed companies such as Xidamen, Yingfeng, ST Chengxing, Brilliance and Tianyuan issued announcements to disclose the specific impact of power and production restrictions on the company.
The owner of a printing and dyeing factory in Shaoxing said, "We had cloth in the printing and dyeing factory the afternoon before. After the temporary request to stop production at night, the cloth can only be taken out of the cylinder. In the past, the production limit would be notified in advance, and we also had time to prepare, but this time it was too sudden and people were caught off guard. "
The owner of another printing and dyeing factory said that the knitted fabrics produced at this time are used for autumn clothes, especially when there are relatively many orders in late September, customers will purchase in large quantities, and suddenly stop production at the end of the month, which will lose millions of orders.
Some enterprises have been hit, while others have benefited from the dual control of energy consumption and industrial upgrading.
Danger and opportunity coexist.
New energy, power grid and basic resources head enterprises are once again popular.
In the whole cycle industry, steel, coal, nonferrous metals and so on are familiar to everyone, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry is relatively ignored.
As a typical high energy-consuming industry, the petrochemical industry is very strict in approving new projects, and the existing high-quality production capacity is increasingly scarce.
Looking at the whole industrial chain, there is a company with two kinds of largest production capacity in the world, and it is still quietly expanding its production, striving to become another "chemical industry leader".
This is Qi Xiang Tengda, who is also from Shandong and works in Wanhua Chemical Company.
Qixiang Tengda was established in 2002 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on May 20 10. The company is the leader of the whole C4 industrial chain, and its related products industrial chain is the most complete enterprise in China C4 industrial chain.
C4 is a petrochemical product with four carbon atoms in its chemical formula.
In the first half of 20021,the company realized operating income of1775 million yuan, up by 79.1%year-on-year; The net profit of returning to the mother was 65.438+0.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208.9%, which directly exceeded the level of last year.
In the transitional period, some enterprises can seize the opportunity and grow against the trend, which is attributed to the ability to lay out in advance and eliminate the fluctuation of raw materials. Don't complain, work hard.
Qixiang belongs to the earlier layout.
During the reporting period, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased substantially year-on-year, mainly due to:
In the first half of 2002/kloc-0, the gross profit of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride was 300 million yuan and 822 million yuan respectively, accounting for 45.6% of the total gross profit. Gross profit of other chemical businesses11030,000 yuan, up by 10 109 1%, accounting for 44.84% of the total gross profit, up by 35.32 percentage points.
This other chemical business is probably the NBR latex project and MMA project that the company has put into production.
In the first half of 2002 13.95%, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was13.95%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, showing a continuous upward trend, mainly due to the completion and commissioning of NBR latex project and MMA project and the rising prices of main products.
In terms of net interest rate, Qi Xiang Tengda also hit a new high in the past six years in the first half of the year, reaching 8.63%, up by 3.53 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the company's strong cost control ability.
It is worth noting that the company's return on equity has maintained a steady increase after the decline.
In 20 15, the company's ROE was only 4%, and then the level of ROE center continued to improve. In recent years, the ROE level has been stable at around 10%, and the annualized ROE in the first half of 2002 10 increased to 28.43%, a new high since10.
Under the dual transformation of energy and industry, which enterprises are worth looking forward to?
Under the challenge of dual control of energy consumption, the head enterprise leading the transformation is the real pillar.
Take Qixiang Tengda as an example. The company belongs to petrochemical industry, which belongs to cyclical industry. It will be affected by the periodic fluctuation of downstream demand and the periodic increase of capacity supply, and its staged profitability will also be affected by upstream raw materials (which are highly related to crude oil prices).
In the case of good industry demand, it is easy to bring high-cost capacity expansion and new capacity, thus affecting the future supply and demand situation. In addition, the transportation radius of products is large, and enterprises in different regions and even abroad will have an impact on the supply and demand of the industry.
According to the past data, the gross profit margin of companies that produce similar products fluctuates greatly due to periodic fluctuations, but the gross profit margin level of this company has always remained relatively stable and has been steadily improved.
Why does the company have a strong competitive advantage in the same industry?
The core competitiveness of the company is mainly concentrated in three aspects:
1, the product cost advantage brought by geographical location.
Generally speaking, there are three principles for building a factory:
2. Advantages of economies of scale.
At present, the company has the largest single methyl ethyl ketone plant in the world, with a designed production capacity of 654.38+0.8 million tons and a domestic market share of over 50%. A maleic anhydride plant with an annual output of 200,000 tons has been built, and its business share in the domestic market has reached more than 30%, accounting for more than 50% of the domestic export share.
In June of 20021year, the company announced the construction of 80,000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone production line, and the production capacity of methyl ethyl ketone increased by more than 40% after it was put into operation. In March of 20021year, it was announced that it planned to build a new maleic anhydride production capacity of 200,000 tons. After completion and commissioning, the production capacity will increase by 100%, and the scale advantage of the company's basic business will be further expanded.
As a global leading enterprise in methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride, the company has a strong voice in the world market of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride. Compared with other smaller manufacturers of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride, the company has strong economies of scale and bargaining power.
In addition, the newly-built 200,000 tons/year NBR latex plant is the largest NBR latex plant in China at present. Through continuous improvement of technology, the company has become the most competitive manufacturer in China.
The completion and commissioning of the 200,000-ton/year MMA plant marks a major breakthrough in the field of new materials and further consolidates the company's leading position in the industry.
3. The industrial chain has a long extension and strong ability to resist market fluctuation risks.
The industrial chain of the company takes C4 raw materials as the main raw material processing direction, and the downstream products of C4 include methyl ethyl ketone, butadiene, isoamyl alcohol, methyl tert-butyl ether, tert-butanol, maleic anhydride, isooctane and other products, which almost covers the downstream mainstream processing direction in the field of C4 deep processing.
The industrial chain extends for a long time, and the product refinement rate is significantly higher than that of ordinary C4 deep processing enterprises. The downstream application fields of terminal products are different, and the ability to resist market fluctuation risks is strong.
On the other hand, in recent years, the downstream application of maleic anhydride has been developing continuously, and the total demand is gradually increasing. With the gradual implementation of "Plastic Restriction Order" in China, more and more manufacturers produce degradable plastic products such as PBS and PBAT, which will greatly drive the demand for maleic anhydride as upstream raw material.
Judging from the project industry to be built, the company is gradually expanding from carbon four industry to carbon three industry, and it is expected that there will be greater strength and width in the field of light hydrocarbon deep processing in the future.
In terms of production capacity, the company's existing production capacity of methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, butyronitrile latex and MMA totals 780,000 tons. After all the projects under construction are put into production, the total production capacity of all products in Qi Xiang Tengda is expected to reach 2.06 million tons, which will reach 260% of the original production capacity.
Considering the prosperity of the industry, the volume and price of maleic anhydride, methyl ethyl ketone and other products have risen together, and new production capacity will be put into production one after another in the next year, which may be expected to rebuild a Qi Xiang Tengda.
Promoting carbon neutrality and peak emission of carbon dioxide in an all-round way is the need of national and human survival.
In this context, the elimination of production capacity is irreversible, and the development of new production capacity is the general trend.
We expect all kinds of rocks, which means that there will be more and more ballast stones in China market.
Steel wool, undoubtedly Baowu Group and Yaomao, reminds people of Hengrui and other companies. When it comes to "chemical wool", people often think of chemical industry first.
In the subdivision field, another company is challenging the position of chemical industry leader, which is beneficial to China's economic development and worth looking forward to.
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