165438+1October 2 1 day, at the annual global conference of the International Finance Forum (IFF) 17, experts and economists with the background of finance ministers and central bank governors from many countries around the world discussed how to deal with the crisis and recession in the future under the new situation.
Zhu Guangyao, former vice minister of China's Ministry of Finance, believes that fiscal policy should play the most important role, and monetary policy must also cooperate with fiscal policy and complement each other. Faced with this systemic risk, the world needs a systematic response, especially in terms of fiscal policy and monetary policy. However, at present, the coordination mechanism between fiscal policy and monetary policy in the world is very lacking.
Fiscal policy and monetary policy are complementary.
Talking about the epidemic, Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of the European Central Bank, said that under the epidemic, the global economy was in a state of "shock" and the fuse of the crisis was unprecedented. At present, the biggest difficulty is how to deal with the economic shock, including the supply side and demand side affected by it.
Trichet believes that the global economy was already in a fragile period long before the epidemic came, which made the epidemic worse and exposed the weak links and bubbles in the market. However, the actions of central banks are quite rapid, and the primary goal is to avoid major financial crises and ensure that market liquidity is maintained.
"Central banks have proposed more economic and monetary easing policies, which is unprecedented in scale and breadth." Trichet said.
However, Erik Berg Love, chief economist of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, believes that the effectiveness of central bank policies is getting lower and lower, and now some targeted fiscal and monetary policies are needed.
Steven Grove, a senior member of the Saudi National Development Fund, also believes that 60% of the world's economies have interest rates below 1%, and some places and countries even enter negative interest rates. Therefore, the room for further adjustment of monetary policy is very limited.
In this context, countries have focused on large-scale fiscal policies.
Van Rompuy, the first president of the European Council and former Belgian Prime Minister, said that Europe has experienced various crises for more than 10 years: European debt crisis, economic crisis and terrorism, which have a great impact on employment and economy.
Of course, negative interest rates are also conducive to large-scale fiscal policy.
Zhu Xian, vice-president of the BRICS New Development Bank, said that for the sake of epidemic prevention, most governments maintain the normal operation of the economy and society through large-scale fiscal deficits. On the one hand, the contraction of economic activities leads to the decline of fiscal revenue. On the other hand, in order to maintain employment and social stability, fiscal expenditure has increased substantially, and the government's fiscal deficit has been rising. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global public debt may hit a record high this year.
"But unlike the prescriptions prescribed by the financial crisis more than a decade ago, multilateral financial institutions, especially the IMF, do not think that it is imperative for major economies to control the rise in debt ratio. For most countries, zero interest rate or even negative interest rate greatly reduces the financing cost of the government, and the rebound of economic growth will also contribute to the decline of debt ratio. " Zhu Xian said that this is also an important reason why most economies can survive under such high public debt.
"In fact, at present, a considerable part of national debt transactions in the global market are at zero or negative interest rates. In this way, on the one hand, the extremely low interest rate reduces the interest rate of public debt and reduces the interest payment expenditure in fiscal expenditure. On the other hand, extremely low interest rates have also reduced the cost for the government to raise new funds for the deficit. " Zhu xian said.
A new situation has come.
At the same time, many experts and economists agree that some targeted monetary and fiscal policies should be adopted to support areas seriously affected by the epidemic.
Van Rompuy said that the epidemic has a greater impact on weaker countries, so the European Recovery Fund accurately supports those areas most affected by the epidemic and the most affected parts of the local economy.
Yasushi Sawada, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, suggested that central banks should provide some liquidity to support small and medium-sized enterprises while avoiding asset price bubbles and inflation. Therefore, it is necessary to fine-tune micro-policies, effectively guide the flow of funds to the real economy, and not to enlarge asset prices. Once the epidemic has passed, the limits of fiscal policy should be tightened to avoid adverse effects in the future.
Steven Grove also believes that employment is a key link. "We need to support enterprises to ensure that they will not close down, enterprises can promote employment, and financial resources should be invested equally in small and medium-sized enterprises, especially paying more attention to them. In addition, some laws and regulations need to be further relaxed, so that enterprises will not be killed by solvency clauses immediately. "
In addition, Trichet reminded that the epidemic has also led to some interruptions in globalization. "Now, we should not reject globalization. In global trade, we need very cautious measures to avoid the destruction of global value chain and supply chain. I hope to continue to promote multilateralism and cooperate with other countries. This is urgently needed and is also the missing part at present. "
According to Hao Fuman, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, the world will become very different after the epidemic.
"I now use my mobile phone to attend the meeting and talk to you. This form may become a new normal in the future, and people's demand for offices will decrease. For example, my office is still vacant, which further reduces the demand for commercial real estate and even collapses the price of wool. No one uses wool to make carpets because people don't go to the office. " Hao Fuman said that many industries have now realized that they must transform. For example, the sunset industry must turn to emerging industries, green industries and sustainable industries, and the supply chain must be reorganized to adapt to this change. Regulatory policies and credit policies need to be prepared for this structural transformation.