Several factors that should be paid attention to when futures are marked (1), pay attention to handicap observation:
The basic work of real-time order making is to observe the sale. The main players in the futures market often hang a huge number of buying or selling orders, and then guide the price to move in a certain direction, and often use the skill of hanging orders to lure investors into making wrong buying and selling decisions. Therefore, paying attention to handicap observation is the key to real-time marking and defense, and you can find every move of the main players. Practical skills are as follows:
1. Looking at the main intention and direction of futures prices from the upper platen and the lower tray. A large number of selling orders are commonly known as upper platen; A large number of buying orders are commonly known as the next tray. Whether it goes up or down, its purpose is to manipulate futures prices and attract people to follow suit, and commodities have different functions in different price areas. When the futures price is in the middle and low price zone that has just started, there are more active buying, and lower trays appear in the intraday trading, which often indicates that the main force intends to do more, so it can be considered to intervene with the trend; If there is a lower platen, futures prices will rise instead of falling, and the possibility of the main platen absorbing goods is too large, which is often a precursor to a sharp rise. When the futures price has risen sharply and is in the high-priced area, a lower tray appears in the session, but the trend is that the price lags behind. At this time, we should pay attention to the main force to lure more shipments; If there are more upper platens at this time, and the increase is infinite, it often indicates that the top will appear soon and the futures price will fall.
2. Hide the relationship between orders and order queues. In the transaction, some prices do not appear in the transaction queue, but appear in the transaction column. This is a hidden trading order, which often contains traces of the main force. Generally speaking, there is a pressure plate in the market, a large number of hidden active buying (especially large orders), and the futures price does not fall, which is a precursor to a sharp rise. There are trays and a lot of hidden active selling, which is often a sign of the main shipment.
3. Counterknock, that is, the main force uses multiple accounts to buy or sell at the same time, artificially raising or lowering the futures price, in order to profit from it. When there is a large turnover in the transaction column, and there is no pending order at this price in the transaction queue or the transaction volume is much larger than the transaction queue, nine times out of ten, the main force deliberately knocks. At this time, if the futures price is at the top, it is mostly to cover the shipment. If it is at the bottom, it is mostly to activate popularity.
4. Big orders, that is, big orders in each transaction. When there are a large number of orders in the buying and selling queue, and there are many big orders, it often means that the main funds are active.
5. Sweeping the plate, in the upward trend, there are often big orders falling from the sky, and all the selling orders are swallowed up. This is called sweeping the plate. When the futures price has just formed a long position and the rally is about to begin, if there are many sell orders in the buying and selling queue, it means that the main force is entering the market in a big way, which is an excellent opportunity for investors to follow up.
(2), pay attention to the disk analysis:
1 depends on quantity and price matching.
By observing the change of volume bar and the change of corresponding price, it is judged whether the matching of volume and price is positive or negative. Specifically, the columnar line of trading volume gradually becomes longer from short to long, and the price also rises synchronously, indicating that the driving force for pushing up is constantly strengthening, which is positive cooperation and can be followed up; On the contrary, the price rises, but the quantity-energy column shrinks, which is a negative match. God never shuts one door but he opens another, and there will be a callback in the short term. Similarly, when the column line of trading volume gradually changes from short to long and the price keeps falling, it shows that there is selling pressure from large households and institutions, which is a dangerous signal, and the general trend is usually difficult to firm in the short term; The column line of trading volume is shrinking, but the index is falling rapidly, which belongs to the panic decline of buying collapse. In the case of clear reasons, short-term intervention will make a profit (note that the decline in futures prices often does not need much). In addition, when the equivalent energy column line is sharply enlarged and the futures price neither rises nor falls, it may be that the main force is washing positions, and investors can wait and see at this time; When the futures price is at a high level, the energy column line is enlarged and the futures price gradually falls, indicating that the main force is lightening the position; On the other hand, when the equivalent energy column line continues to shrink after amplification, the futures price continues to decline. At this time, it may be that the main force is in a shock position. At this time, investors should? Hold your ground? .
2 Look at the master control.
At the opening stage, it is generally necessary to digest the trend of the external market and the latest news of the domestic market. Generally speaking, the impact of this information on the domestic market will be incisive within 5 minutes, and then gradually fade away, forming a balanced pattern after about half an hour. However, due to the influence of the trend inertia, small and medium-sized funds will continue to participate in the market and maintain this enthusiasm for some time. Taking advantage of the influence of the external market trend and the characteristics of the domestic trend, the main force of the market will make a reasonable opening price, and then with the gradual weakening of the main force, the market will turn to the stage of self-digestion. The trend of the continuation stage is completely determined by the main operating style and operating ideas of the market. The turnover of unilateral market will be much larger than usual (except for closing the board at the opening), which is caused by the active participation of short-term funds caused by the expansion of market price range. Oscillating market means that no one in the market can grasp the initiative of the disk, and the price fluctuates in a range under competition. The trading volume of oscillating market is often not as large as that of unilateral market, but the position will increase obviously, which shows that the situation of both long and short sides fighting against seesaws is escalating. Cowhide market refers to the continuation of the main funds in the market without any activity, and almost all transactions are small and medium-sized funds. In this case, due to the lack of the participation of the main funds, the market turnover has shrunk dramatically, the price change is extremely depressed, and the market has no clear market trend. The last stage refers to the last 30 minutes of the transaction, which can be divided into two trends: 15 minutes. Before 15 minutes, the market will still be affected by the trend of the continuation stage, which can be regarded as the continuation of the continuation stage. If there is an obvious trend in the resumption stage, the price fluctuation and volume change at this stage will be more intense, which may form the most active trading range in the whole day. If there is no trend in the resumption stage, the market will also wake up from the downturn and become more active during this period. In the last 15 minutes, the market trend was mainly dominated by liquidation and the next day's expectation. Due to short-term liquidation, it will cause price oscillation and decrease of positions, which is of little reference significance to investors. Under the expected influence, the main funds will launch a short-term market, which will have an impact on the opening of the next day. In the closing stage, we should pay special attention to the overall digestion of important news, especially the slow response to news.
3? Look at the changes in futures prices.
Handicap time-sharing chart, sometimes there will be a sudden surge or diving trend, because there is no sign in advance, so it is called abnormal trend. If you don't find out the reason, but follow the trend of the time-sharing chart to make investment decisions, it is easy to make a faint move. In general, we should quickly search the price trends of cbot, lme and other exchanges, browse all kinds of news, and find out the reasons as soon as possible. For example, holidays will have an impact on trading behavior and psychological expectations, which in turn will affect the intraday trend. Because the holidays in China market are different from those in foreign countries, foreign markets are still trading during the holidays in China market, and the impact of the external market price trend in this vacuum period on the domestic market will make the trend before and after the holidays full of more uncertainties. From the perspective of avoiding risks, cautious investors will choose the decision of short positions, which is the general mentality of the market before the festival. Out of expectation, small funds will make judgments on overseas markets before the holiday, and the main consideration is the deployment of major strategies, that is, what methods are more beneficial to them under certain circumstances, that is, when the influencing factors are clear after the holiday, they will take greater initiative. In fact, sometimes you spend a lot of effort, and you don't know what caused the changes in the market. You only find some seemingly far-fetched explanations. Then let me tell you: this often indicates the real direction of market development in the next step.
Three operation methods of stock index futures (1) Single-side band operation
Grasp the bottom and top of the market band. At the top of the index band, you can short. At the bottom of the exponential band, you can buy.
Of course, this kind of large-band unilateral operation also has great risks. Because of leverage, the index fluctuates slightly, and it is easy to reach the standard of stop loss.
(2) Unilateral intraday trading
The trend of stock index futures is closely related to the spot index of the broader market. With the rise of the market, stock index futures will also rise. In this way, the intraday short-term trading of stock index futures can be carried out by calculating the total energy of long and short positions.
Because it is an intraday transaction, it must be closed on the same day, so it is better than? Single sideband operation? The risk is small, but the chance of profit is great.
(3) Risk-free arbitrage between stock index futures and spot index (spot arbitrage)
When the price difference between the stock index futures and the CSI 300 index deviates from the normal range, you can buy the CSI 300 index fund at this time and then sell the stock index futures contract with the same amount. As long as you hold the stock index futures contract delivery date and make cash delivery, you can get risk-free income. However, the index fund of CSI 300 needs 1 1,000% of the funds, so a relatively large amount of funds is needed for this arbitrage.