First, tracking. If a person says that he is tracking a transaction, it proves that he gave up and went to the front of the market. He gave up left-hand trading, he admitted that the trend was the most real, and he gave up forecasting the market.
Talking about trend trading alone does not mean that the trader gives up forecasting, but that he follows the trend, so most of his subjective behaviors must be excluded from his cognition. He fully respects objective trends.
Second, the trend. Why do you have to follow the trend when trading? Why not follow the shock?
Because it is impossible to track in the shock. What do you mean by stalking? The market has gone up, and I think it will continue to go up, so I bought with a stop loss. But what about shock? Since what we have to do is to fluctuate, we must sell high and suck low, so when the market goes up, we need to meet highs, and when the market goes down, we need to buy on dips. This trading model is to seize the turning point of the market trend. It is a typical left-handed transaction, which requires subjective prediction, so it cannot be tracked.
So we can only do trend tracking.
Of course, each trader's trading cognition is different, and some people think it is not king. However, all people who adopt the trend-following trading method must have a deep understanding of trend-following in trading cognition.
Then why do they say trend following is king?
Because they know that the market trend is chaotic. We can't predict the market and determine the trend, but the only thing we can be sure of is that there will be a trend in the market.
The power of the trend is very powerful. As soon as it appears, if it is in the right direction, it can realize huge benefits. But we don't know when it will appear, and we can't predict how strong the trend will be in advance. So we set up a trading system, track the trend, lose less when it fluctuates, make a sudden profit when the trend comes, and realize the final overall profit.
Since the rise of the speculative industry, countless pioneers in the trading industry have talked about this trading model in their works. This trading method has controllable risks and positive income expectations. So it is called the best way to make a profit by many users.
Of course, the method is good, but it is not easy to run. You need to know something about the transaction to control it.
Does anyone do trend tracking? Come out and meet.
Trend tracking is simple to say but not easy to do;
There are several hidden problems:
1) What is a trend?
2) What is the signal of trend reversal?
Presumably, most people have their own understanding, and there are a lot of explanations for both in the market, which determines that trend-following trading is not so simple.
Taking the signal of trend reversal as an example, Dow theory says:
1) The broken trend line means that the trend is suspended, but the angle of the trend is different and the time used is different, so it is very particular whether the signal of the trend suspension is effective, so how to judge it?
2) Before the current trend is reversed or suspended, the default is trend continuation. What is the signal of trend reversal? Form? ABC rules?
Trend trading, band trading and shock short-term trading are the three major trading methods;
But in the long run, the transaction cost paid by Trend Exchange is the lowest, and the possible single income is the highest. However, from the effect point of view, the shorter the trading cycle, the higher the profit ceiling;
However, under different market conditions, each method will have its own advantages and disadvantages, and it cannot be directly said which one is good; Moreover, the two can not be completely separated and complement each other;
In shock trading, weekly shock trading is 60-minute trend tracking; Trend tracking at the daily level is the monthly level of shock trading;
Everyone knows that trend trading is certainly feasible, but the key is short, medium and long trends. Who should take your operation as the standard? Why do you find it difficult to do this year? When the daily trend is good, small companies will adjust when they buy it. Small companies left, rose again, and individual stocks also rose. So technically, the operation of a small company must be short and subordinate to long. We must look at the problem from the standpoint of the main force, obey the technology but don't believe in it, so that we can do it.
There are two ways to profit from trading, making trends and making shocks. If trend tracking is called "king", then short-selling shocks are "overbearing". Take table tennis for example, the former is positive glue and the latter is negative glue. In fact, a real master trader should use "double-sided tape".
If we have to prove that trend tracking is the only "Wang Zhidao", we can only loosely say that shock consolidation can also be used as a secondary trend.
In fact, neither can be biased, because the bane of trend trading is consolidation, and the bane of shock trading is trend. The two complement each other.
This problem is more complicated. First of all, you can only follow the trend if you can determine it. If you can't identify any trends, how can you track them? That's easy to say. Follow the trend. What is uncertain is the trend! If the trend can be determined, it is certain. Therefore, following the trend of trading is king, yes, but how to do it? What is the next trend? Not sure! If you can be sure every time, the income will be high under the action of compound interest. For example, this year, if you can determine the trend and do it twice, the income will more than double in less than five months. However, this is a wonderful thing to think of and impossible. Nonsense as correct as that sentence.
Let me tell you how to look at this problem simply, clearly and highly, and follow the trend. First of all, we say that the market only goes up but not down, which is a contradiction (shock belongs to a special form). We know that everything is struggling in contradiction and developing in struggle, and we follow the principle of "buy hard and sell hard"! Before the strong direction you follow ends, shall we sell or buy! …………
For the market that always fluctuates, trend trading is a very good trading idea, and it is difficult to distinguish the trading direction in the market. But as long as you find the right direction of the market and follow it, you can get good returns, and many small gains are good returns.
"Going with the flow" is a very high realm in trend trading. On the premise of acknowledging the effectiveness of the market, try to keep up with the pace of the market. However, how to judge the beginning and end of trend trading is a problem from the beginning of the financial market. Although there are all kinds of judgment methods, the market is not finished. No matter who looks at the market, it is just a prediction. Next, take stock and share six methods to judge the trend:
1, large period * * * vibration analysis method is used to judge whether there are high points and low points in the year, such as near the high point or the second high point. In order to verify whether it is correct, you can choose a small position to continue the trial position.
Taking the low point of the year as an example, if the daily chart, weekly chart and monthly chart all show the same trend, that is to say, there is a * * * vibration phenomenon, then the signal quality is very high.
2, K-line analysis K-line analysis method first depends on the number of male candles and female candles, followed by their size. In the weekly chart and daily chart, if the sun candle occupies an overwhelming advantage, combined with other reference factors, it can basically be judged that the trend is upward.
3. Deviation between the K-line and the indicator When the K-line deviates from the MACD indicator, if the K-line repeatedly hits a record high, the kinetic energy column not only fails to hit a record high, but also keeps shrinking, which shows that the rising kinetic energy is shrinking and the purchase intention is very low. Combined with the fundamental situation at that time, we can roughly judge that the market is about to peak.
4. Time operation cycle method Any financial operation target has its operation time law. Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it usually takes half a year for a currency to run from a low point to a high point, and then it will gradually run to a low point in the year after half a year. Therefore, we must consider the time factor when judging the high and low points of a year.
5. Cross-market analysis Today's financial market is not an independent market, and there is a strong linkage effect between them. To do cross-market analysis, we should choose products that have strong linkage with each other.
6. Volatility analysis The volatility analysis method is an indicator of the response of volatility indicators to market risks. When it is found that the risk indicators have fallen sharply during the year and started to enter a stable cycle, people are more willing to buy products such as dollars and sell high-risk assets such as crude oil, commodities and currencies.
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