It is understood that LME has revised similar copper futures rules before. After the price of nickel futures rose sharply, LME extended the rules from copper to other colored varieties. Analysts believe that LME revised the rules, on the one hand, to limit the spot premium of non-ferrous metals and the contract price of near and far months to a controllable level, not exceeding1%of the spot price; On the other hand, LME did not put forward a clear extension period and the cost of delayed delivery.
Shanghai nickel main contract closed at daily limit.
With the international nickel futures price hitting a record high, the domestic futures market has also strengthened passively, but the increase is obviously smaller than that of LME market. On March 8, Shanghai Nickel closed at the daily limit, and the main contract 2204 was not opened at the close. The market finally closed at 2288 10 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15%. Only 1.58 million lots were sold and1.457 million lots were held.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to the daily limit of Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin and stainless steel futures are also trading in the late session. For the daily limit of these two futures varieties, analysts said that from the perspective of consumption structure, stainless steel is the largest primary application field of primary nickel, while nickel and tin are rare metals, and the correlation coefficient between them is as high as 0.868. The price of tin and stainless steel will also rise, driven by the continuous record high price of nickel. In addition, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the market generally expects that the proportion of nickel consumption in the battery industry will increase significantly in the future.
Russia is an important producer and exporter of nickel in the world, with the fifth largest nickel reserve and the first largest nickel plate export. Russian nickel plate is the main nickel delivery product of LME. With the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market expects that LME nickel delivery products will be seriously insufficient, so the nickel futures price once rose sharply. At the same time, LME nickel stocks are in a state of continuous decline, and the obstruction of Russian nickel trade will further aggravate the expectation of European nickel spot shortage.
According to the analysis of Guoyuan Securities, it is expected that the cooperation between the EU and Russia in the field of resource products will be difficult to complete in the short term, and all parties concerned will suffer huge losses, which will hinder Russia's subsequent nickel exports. At the same time, nickel is an important raw material in new energy batteries, and the strong demand for power lithium batteries will promote the continuous destocking of nickel in this round. It is expected that LME nickel warehouse receipt will be out of stock with high probability.
In terms of domestic nickel inventory, although the current inventory has rebounded, the overall level is also at a low level. According to public data, the current nickel inventory in the previous period is 5497 tons, which is 2504 tons higher than the low of 65438+1October 28.
Yang Lina believes that the international nickel price will continue to strengthen based on the expectation that the situation in Russia and Ukraine will continue to ferment and LME nickel stocks will be at a low level. "It is bound to affect imports and increase domestic nervous expectations, while the raw material end of nickel sulfate mainly depends on imports, and the cost of nickel sulfate will increase substantially. It is expected that the premium in the domestic spot market will continue to be high. "
(Editor Li Baoyu)