Internationally, the United States is the largest corn producer in the world, and it is also the country that uses corn alcohol most widely. It is stipulated that 10% corn alcohol should be added to automobile fuel. In mid-June, US President Bush called for the passage of a comprehensive energy bill, which will increase the use of corn alcohol and soybean diesel. In recent years, the consumption of corn for alcohol in the United States has grown very strongly. The amount of corn produced and consumed by alcohol has surpassed that of starch industry and become the main body of industrial corn consumption in the United States. In 2002/2003, the United States produced and consumed 26.7 million tons of corn, with an average annual growth rate of 5.88% since 199 1, much higher than the growth rate of corn consumption in the United States in the same period.
From the category of alcohol production, the corn produced and consumed by beverage alcohol is close to saturation, maintaining at the level of 3.3 million tons and relatively stable; Because of the strong market demand, fuel alcohol conforms to the future development trend of corn alcohol processing, so the growth rate is relatively large, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6% in the past decade. After entering 2 1 century, the growth rate has obviously accelerated. In 2002/2003, fuel alcohol produced and consumed 23.4 million tons of corn, an increase of 5.2 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 28.9%. Fuel ethanol will become the main direction of corn ethanol processing in the future.
Brazil is also a big agricultural country with limited oil resources. Although abundant offshore oil resources have been discovered recently, they are still in the exploration stage, and energy has been mainly imported. 1973 The world oil crisis has dealt a heavy blow to the Brazilian economy. Since then, the Brazilian government has made a major energy strategic decision to realize energy diversification. Brazil selected sugarcane and corn with abundant resources as raw materials to develop alcohol fuel, which was successfully developed in 1975. There are two kinds of alcoholic fuels for automobiles: hydrous ethanol (6%) and anhydrous ethanol (0.5%). The former uses alcohol as fuel directly, while the latter uses 25% gasoline as fuel. Ordinary cars can be used without modification, so alcohol fuel is widely used in Brazil. 1979, the first alcohol car with water-containing alcohol as fuel came out. 1999, a new generation of alcohol vehicles was born, and the technology of alcohol vehicles made a major breakthrough. Through the use of electronic ignition, the power system is enhanced, making the alcohol car more economical and practical. In 2003, Ford Motor Company of Brazil introduced the first gasoline and alcohol dual-fuel vehicle. This car has designed a "flexible fuel detection program" in the fuel tank, which can use gasoline or alcohol alone or a mixture of gasoline and alcohol in any proportion. Brazil replaced gasoline with alcohol fuel, which greatly reduced the oil import from 1976 to 200 1, saving about $46.5 billion in foreign exchange. At present, Brazil has reached 90% self-sufficiency in energy and is moving towards the goal of complete self-sufficiency.
With the shortage of oil resources, some western countries stipulate that gasoline must be mixed with 10% alcohol. Because alcohol can improve the octane number of gasoline, through in-depth research by experts from various countries, alcohol is an ideal renewable energy source. From the perspective of comprehensive benefit industries, corn is the best crop to extract alcohol. According to relevant data and information, the average annual consumption of alcohol in the international market has increased by more than 65,438+00% in recent years. With the importance of environmental protection in various countries, alcohol is constantly used in fuel, and it is predicted that the consumption of alcohol will increase by more than 50% in the next few years.
In China, in order to alleviate the contradiction of oil shortage, in June 2003, Jilin Province took the lead in starting the closed operation and promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles in the whole province. In the second half of 2004, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces successively realized the closed sales of ethanol gasoline for vehicles in the whole province, so far the whole northeast region has been closed to promote ethanol gasoline for vehicles. In addition, China has also carried out pilot projects of ethanol gasoline for vehicles in Henan, Anhui and parts of Hubei, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu. It is estimated that by the end of this year, ethanol gasoline for vehicles will basically replace other gasoline in these provinces and regions, so that this renewable new green energy can achieve maximum economic and social benefits with as little resource consumption and as little environmental cost as possible. According to preliminary statistics, from June 5438+065438+ 10 in 2003, Jilin Province officially began to sell ethanol gasoline for vehicles to the end of February 2005, the three northeastern provinces sold a total of 6,543,8+0.94 million tons of ethanol gasoline for vehicles, saving more than 700,000 tons of crude oil.
As the main corn producing area in China, the closed promotion of automobile ethanol gasoline has once again activated the corn processing market in Northeast China. Experts said that the increase in demand for fuel ethanol in Northeast China has become a "new force" to stimulate corn consumption, which not only expands corn consumption in Northeast China, but also helps to raise the purchase price of corn and mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
China's corn planting areas are mainly distributed in Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places. Among them, the three northeastern provinces and one district are the most important commodity grain suppliers and export bases in China, accounting for about 90% of the country's exports. Jilin is the province with the largest corn output in China, with the output remaining at around150,000 tons, and the corn output in Heilongjiang Province is also around100,000 tons. From the analysis of consumption trend, the composition of corn consumption in China is mainly feed, industrial and edible. According to the analysis of feed industry by authoritative organizations, the domestic consumption of feed corn in 2004 was 94 million tons, and it is expected that the consumption will be flat or slightly increased in 2005. Industrial corn consumption, including ethanol, is the biggest hot spot of corn consumption. It is predicted that the industrial consumption will increase by 10% in 2005, and the total amount will reach155,000 ~160,000 tons. 1999/2000, the domestic consumption of corn alcohol was less than 4.5 million tons, but it is expected to reach 7.4 million tons in 2004/2005, which is a very rapid growth. The data show that in 2004/2005, the consumption of corn alcohol in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces is estimated to be 250,000 tons, 6,543.8+0.30 million tons and 6,543.8+0.47 million tons respectively, increasing by 50,000 tons, 600,000 tons and 370,000 tons respectively over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2005/2006, the consumption of corn alcohol in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces will increase by 120%, 30% and 60% respectively over the previous year. According to the statistics of relevant departments in Heilongjiang Province, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang Province is expected to be 29.838 million mu this year, an increase of 6.5438+0.528 million mu over the previous year, with an increase of 5.4%.
Since the beginning of this year, the planting area in China's corn producing areas has increased, and it is predicted that the domestic corn supply and demand will bid farewell to the gap in 2004/2005, with a slight surplus. In April this year, the Market Monitoring Department of the National Cereals and Oils Information Center made the first assessment of the supply and demand balance of the domestic corn market in 2005/2006: it is estimated that the domestic corn output in 2005/2006 will be 6.5438+26.5 million tons, down 5.5 million tons from the previous year. In 2005/2006, the domestic consumption of corn feed was 89.5 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons over the previous year, and the industrial consumption was 20 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons over the previous year. In addition, the export volume decreased compared with the previous year, and the total domestic consumption increased to15438+0.05 million tons. The evaluation results show that the gap between supply and demand in 2005/2006 reached 3.55 million tons, which needs to be made up by inventory. The production capacity and demand of domestic fuel ethanol have improved this year, and the consumption of corn industry will continue to increase, so the gap between domestic corn supply and demand is likely to reappear next year.
The data shows that there has been a gap between supply and demand of corn in China since 2000, and it is expected to achieve a slight surplus for the first time this year. However, due to the comprehensive promotion of automobile ethanol gasoline in Anhui Province from April this year, it is estimated that the production and sales of fuel ethanol will increase by 90% compared with 2004. The growth of fuel ethanol production has driven the whole alcohol market. In 2004, the output of edible alcohol and industrial alcohol in China increased, and this growth trend is expected to continue in 2005 and 2006. Alcohol production is a traditional corn consumption channel, and the growth rate of consumption in the past was relatively slow. From 1999 to 2003, the average growth rate was only 1%, but since 2004, with the emergence of new growth points of fuel ethanol, the alcohol consumption growth rate of corn has reached 20%. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the state approved four enterprises, namely Tianguan in Henan, China Resources in Heilongjiang, Fuel Ethanol in Jilin and Fengyuan in Anhui, to process ethanol, with a design capacity of 65,438+220,000 tons and a current production capacity of 820,000 tons. Except for Henan enterprise, the other three enterprises all use corn as raw material to process fuel ethanol. With the completion of reconstruction and expansion projects in Anhui and Jilin provinces, the total production capacity will exceed the designed production capacity by the end of 2005.
To sum up, at present, countries with the ability in the world have increased the development and utilization of corn alcohol fuel, and the market prospect of corn alcohol fuel is very broad. In the next few years, China's dependence on oil imports will deepen, and international oil prices will enter the era of high prices, so the expansion of domestic fuel ethanol production capacity will become an irresistible trend. As an important raw material of alcohol fuel, the contradiction between supply and demand will be further highlighted. Perhaps in the near future, China corn will follow the footsteps of soybeans and become a net importer.