The price adjustment window opens tonight, and domestic oil prices may fall for four consecutive days. Prior to this, the domestic refined oil price adjustment had a "five-day losing streak" at 20 18, but after 20 19, the domestic oil price has not fallen for four consecutive days. The price adjustment window opens tonight, and domestic oil prices may fall for four consecutive days.
The price adjustment window opens tonight, and domestic oil prices may fall for four consecutive days 1. With the roller coaster market of international oil prices, domestic oil prices are expected to usher in a "four-day losing streak" after experiencing a "four-day rising streak".
At 24: 00 on August 9, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open, and the agency predicts that this round of refined oil prices will show a downward trend, welcoming the fifth downward adjustment in the year.
During this pricing cycle, the international oil price fell to the lowest level in half a year, giving up all the increases since Russia and Ukraine. On August 4th, the settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.34% to $88.54 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.75% to $ 94. 12 per barrel. On August 8, oil distribution continued to fall after the opening. As of press time, it was reported at $93.42/barrel, just one step away from the $90/barrel mark.
Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the agency estimates that as of August 8, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was $99.38 per barrel on the ninth working day of the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, with a change rate of-1.64%. It is estimated that domestic gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 1 10 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to about 0.08 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel.
According to Han, an analyst of Lianchuang refined oil products, recently, the overall international oil price showed a range fluctuation trend, and investors continued to wait and see. After the previous decline, international crude oil has been at a low point since the beginning of February. At present, the market is increasingly worried about the prospect of economic recession, and investors are worried that this will seriously impact the growth prospect of energy demand.
However, Han also said that the support of supply for oil prices still exists, especially after only a small increase in production, the problem of difficulty in increasing production has once again attracted investors' attention. In addition, with the resumption of Iranian nuclear talks, the relationship between the United States and Iran has become more and more worthy of attention.
Domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2022. (Source: National Development and Reform Commission)
"The decline in international oil prices is caused by the superposition of political, economic and financial factors." Dong Xiucheng, executive director of university of international business and economics Institute of International Business Strategy, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com that "when the economy is in recession, the demand for energy consumption will weaken." Therefore, he believes that there is still room for further decline in international oil prices.
The price adjustment window opens tonight, and domestic oil prices may fall for four consecutive days. After that, domestic oil prices experienced "four consecutive rises", and many fuel owners shouted disapprovingly. But the good news is that domestic oil prices are expected to usher in a "four-day losing streak". At 24: 00 on August 9, that is, tonight, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. Prior to this, there was a "five-day losing streak" in the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products at 20 18, but after 20 19, there was no "four-day losing streak" in domestic oil prices.
At present, oil prices are developing in a downward trend, which is expected to usher in the fifth downward adjustment this year. As of August 8th, on the 9th working day, relevant institutions predicted that the cumulative downward adjustment range of oil price was 100 yuan/ton, down to about 0.08-0.09 yuan/liter. After calculation, a full tank of oil (50 liters) can save 4 yuan.
If the previous three cumulative reductions of RMB 38.5 are included, it will cost the tanker owner 4 1.5 yuan to fill up a tank of oil (50 liters). In terms of international oil prices, on August 8, oil distribution continued to fall after the opening; As of the 9th, the price was close to $90 per barrel.
According to statistics, after 14 rounds of adjustment of domestic refined oil prices this year, gasoline prices rose by 1.740 yuan/ton, and diesel prices rose by 1.675 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "ten rises, four falls and zero stranded". If the oil price is lowered tonight, the domestic oil price will run aground this year.
The price adjustment window opens tonight, and domestic oil prices may fall for four consecutive days. At 24: 00 today (9th), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Institutions generally predict that this round of domestic oil prices will usher in a "four-day losing streak" with a high probability, which is also the fifth downward adjustment during the year.
Regarding the change of crude oil price, Hu Xue, an analyst of Zhongyu Information, said that the international crude oil remained strong in the early stage due to the decline of inventory and the negative growth of OPEC+,but after entering August, the international oil price began to fluctuate and fall due to the negative factors such as economic downturn, reduced fuel oil demand, rising crude oil gasoline inventory and the resurgence of Asian epidemic.
Xu Na, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out that since the current pricing cycle, the bottom of international oil prices has been moving downwards, the rate of change of crude oil has changed from positive to negative, and the price adjustment has changed from stranded to downward. Zhuochuang Information Data Monitoring Model shows that as of the close of August 5th, the change rate of crude oil was-1.62% on the 9th working day in China, and it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 80 yuan/ton. Calculated by liter, 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline and 0 # diesel oil decreased by 0.06 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively.
According to Zhongyu information data, as of August 8th, on the 9th working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil was priced at 99.89 USD/barrel, with crude oil changing between-1.34 USD/barrel or-1.45%, and gasoline and diesel oil were correspondingly lowered 120 yuan/ton.
According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the 9th working day on August 8th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 99.38 USD/barrel, with a change rate of-1.64%, corresponding to the downward adjustment of gasoline and diesel oil 1 10 yuan/ton.
Based on the lowest predicted values of the above three institutions, it costs 3 yuan less to fill a box of 92 # gasoline for a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L. Together with the previous three cumulative reductions of 38.5 yuan, it takes 4 1.5 yuan to fill a box.
In 2022, domestic refined oil prices have experienced 14 rounds of adjustment. Gasoline prices rose 1740 yuan/ton, and diesel prices rose 1675 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "ten rises, four falls and zero stranded". If this price reduction is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products will show a pattern of "ten rises, five falls and zero stranding" in 2022, becoming the first "four consecutive losses" since 20 19. Prior to this, the price adjustment of refined oil products ended in a "five-day losing streak" of 20 18.
According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window is at 24: 00 on August 23rd. Although the increase of OPEC+production is obviously less than expected, the manufacturing index of major economies in the world has fallen, which is negative for crude oil consumption, and the decline in crude oil consumption will suppress oil prices.