Researchers Cao Enhui and Peng Qiang.

Special researcher Chyi Yu

Without notice, the water and electricity were cut off, and the elevator in the corridor suddenly stopped ... A series of sudden changes made the northeast residents wake up from the "freedom of electricity use" that lasted for almost ten years. The "orderly use of electricity" that swept across many provinces in China before the arrival of winter made people feel the chill in advance.

According to CCTV news reports, the Propaganda Department of Liaoyang Municipal Committee confirmed that a major safety accident occurred in the city on September 24th. Although this is only an extreme event in this round of power rationing, it also reflects that the power supply situation is facing a more severe situation.

After some provinces cut power in the first half of this year, the central government issued a signal in July and August, asking all localities to correct the "sports carbon reduction" and resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high" projects.

However, in late September, "power rationing" still spread everywhere, and some places even extended power rationing to residents' electricity consumption. Although the signing meeting of medium-and long-term coal contracts in the fourth quarter of Shanxi Province 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities was held on September 29th, at present, the power consumption pressure in June of 5438+ 10 is still relatively high.

Behind these phenomena, there are many problems to be solved: how serious is the nationwide power cut? Why is it intensified in the off-season of industrial production? What industries have been affected by power rationing measures this year? Why can't the contradiction of electricity use be solved? ……

It is one-sided to simply attribute this round of "power rationing" to "dual control requirements for energy consumption" or even "limiting low-end production capacity". To answer these questions, we should not only analyze the domestic and international energy supply markets, but also go deep into the industrial structure of China after the epidemic.

2 1 Century Business Herald The new energy research group believes that to solve these problems, it is necessary to establish a safer and cleaner long-term energy supply structure, a more market-oriented power trading system, and promote more energy-saving industrial restructuring.

Why is there a "power outage" raid?

1, insufficient power supply growth.

During the period of1-August this year, the domestic power demand increased rapidly, and the growth rate of domestic power production and coal supply was less than that of demand.

According to the data of National Energy Administration, from June 5438 to August this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 5.47 trillion kWh, up 13.8% year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry reached 3.65 trillion kWh, accounting for 66% of the total social electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13. 1%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from June 5438 to August this year, the domestic power generation was 5.39 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.3%, while the growth rate of power generation in August has dropped significantly. Among them, in August, thermal power only increased by 0.3%, hydropower decreased by 4.7%, wind power increased by 7%, and nuclear power increased by 10.2%.

The report released by China Electric Power Enterprise Association in July pointed out that the supply and demand of electricity in the first half of the year were balanced, but the supply of electricity in some areas was tight. In June+10, 5438, affected by the cold wave and other weather, there was a power shortage in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui. In the second quarter, Meng Xi, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi took measures to meet the demand and use electricity in an orderly manner. Among them, the power supply in Guangdong and Yunnan is particularly tight.

At that time, the China Electric Power Enterprise Association predicted that the overall supply and demand of electricity in the country would be balanced in the second half of the year, but the power supply shortage would increase compared with the previous year.

As the main force of stable power supply, the tight supply and demand in the coal market and the soaring price restrict the supply of coal and electricity.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the limited release of domestic coal production capacity, the increase of imported coal is limited, and the coal supply continues to be tight. In the second half of the year, coal prices rose all the way, and the inventory of coal-fired power enterprises was low, which further increased the operating pressure of coal-fired power enterprises.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic raw coal output from June 5438 to August this year was 2.6 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, mainly driven by the high growth rate from June 5438 to February. Since March this year, the monthly output of domestic raw coal has mostly maintained a downward trend year-on-year, and only rebounded slightly in May and August.

At present, it is in the traditional off-season of coal use, but the market is extremely hot. At present, the main contract price of thermal coal futures has exceeded 1.300 yuan/ton, and the actual market price is about 1.600 yuan/ton, while the price in the same period last year was only 500-600 yuan/ton. The increase is around 300%.

The soaring coal price has rapidly pushed the thermal power plant into a loss situation, and the willingness to generate electricity is insufficient. Whether through the long association or the initiative of enterprises to reduce prices, an unchangeable fact is that there is less coal circulating in the market.

Since this summer, the peak of electricity consumption caused by high temperature and strong export (from June 5438 to August, China's total export value increased by 23.7% year-on-year) has stimulated industrial production and stimulated the growth of electricity demand.

2. Dual control of energy consumption

It is not uncommon to limit electricity and production in many industries. For example, in the steel industry, after the rapid production reduction in the first half of the year, under the greater pressure of output control, many steel industries began to implement the production restriction policy in July. In cement building materials, due to environmental protection, energy consumption and other factors, peak shifting production has been limited.

However, since late August, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has named several provinces and regions whose dual control of energy consumption failed to meet the standards and issued early warnings. Since then, areas with tight energy consumption control began to limit electricity and production at the end of the third quarter, trying to sprint to meet the standards.

At present, the main industries involved in the dual control of energy consumption are chemical industry, steel, nonferrous metals, cement and building materials, coal and electricity, and more than a dozen provinces and regions with large energy consumption.

Figure: Completion of dual control of energy consumption in each province in the first half of the year

According to the calculation of CICC research department, the provinces whose energy consumption intensity failed to meet the standard in the first half of the year accounted for about 70% of the national industrial added value, of which the provinces with red warning and yellow warning accounted for about 38% and 32% respectively.

However, "double-control energy consumption" is not the only reason for power rationing in various places. For Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, the increase of electricity consumption, the shortage of thermal coal and the shortage of new energy power generation have led to insufficient local power supply, which has led to a large-scale power cut-off and production suspension in Northeast China.

Figure: Dual control measures for energy consumption in various provinces

The heating season is about to begin. In the traditional peak consumption season, the coal market as a whole is expected to remain strong without obvious improvement between the supply and demand sides.

Power limiting effect

From factory shutdown to elevator shutdown, the influence of "power cut" has penetrated into residents' lives from industrial production. For a time, more than 20 A-share-related listed companies were in a hurry and announced restrictions on radio waves and. But what is embarrassing is that this round of power cuts once triggered a "power carnival" in the capital market.

1, the power market fluctuates violently.

Due to the shortage of power supply, after the industrial enterprises implemented power and production restriction, the electricity consumption of residents in many areas was also affected.

In areas with severe energy-saving situation in China, there has been a situation of strictly controlling air-conditioning electricity consumption and demanding optimization of lighting electricity consumption.

In the three northeastern provinces, many places suddenly lost power without notice, and some areas even stopped elevators, traffic lights and water. In addition to the power and production restrictions of industrial enterprises, the closing time of shopping malls in some areas was advanced to 4 pm, and all building lighting was turned off, reducing the brightness of street lamps at night.

Since June this year, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places have adjusted the local peak and valley electricity prices.

But on the whole, the adjustment of peak-valley electricity price has reduced the operating cost of power grid enterprises to some extent, and also realized the "peak-cutting and valley-filling" in some power consumption processes. However, for thermal power generation enterprises, the high cost brought by the high prices of natural gas and coal and the adjustment of peak and valley electricity prices are still a drop in the bucket.

In the field of industrial manufacturing, large-scale power and production restrictions continue to affect many industries. Paradoxically, supply and demand are intertwined with prices, forming a strange circle to some extent.

In the photovoltaic industry, the dual control of energy consumption has further aggravated the mismatch between supply and demand and the shortage of silicon materials in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, thus contributing to the trend of higher overall prices. Downstream demand has played a supporting role in the current high price of silicon materials, and the promotion of dual control of energy consumption has affected the output of silicon materials to a certain extent, further limiting the supply.

In the cement industry, due to the high coal price and the policy of limiting production in many places, the price of products has risen sharply in the short term. In the steel industry, since the second half of the year, under the implementation of the production restriction policy, steel prices have remained at a high level; On this basis, the dual control of energy consumption in many places further limits the steel output and enhances the expectation of production reduction.

Near the end of the traditional peak season, the consumption of steel market is weak, the social inventory keeps declining, the overall market presents a weak pattern of supply and demand, and the production reduction policy dominates the market. The limited production of steel enterprises directly weakened the market demand of iron ore, and the price also plummeted.

Since late July, iron ore prices have continued to fall. At present, the main domestic iron ore futures price has fallen below 700 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 1.358 yuan/ton in May this year.

2. "Ice and Fire" in the capital market

Since the beginning of August, the A-share power sector has continued to climb, with a low of 1 107 on July 28th and a high of 1600 on September 28th. In the same period, the coal mining and processing industry also began to climb sharply. On August 3rd, the index was 1498.48, and reached the highest level of 2483.68 on September 6th, 16, which has recently dropped to about 2 100.

Dozens of listed companies in various industries announced the news of stopping production and limiting production. According to 2 1 Century Business Herald, according to the incomplete statistics of the new energy research group, as of September 27th, 23 listed companies have issued relevant announcements about power rationing and production suspension. Mona Lisa (0029 18. SZ), a ceramic manufacturer in Guangxi, was the first to be affected.

Figure: List of some listed companies affected by the double limit

/kloc-in September, 2004, Mona Lisa announced that six building ceramic production lines with a total production capacity of10.5 million square meters/day of Guimeng Company, a holding subsidiary, were forced to stop production, and the remaining production lines (with a building ceramic production capacity of 25,000 square meters/day) were also in abnormal operation at low load, facing the risk of shutdown; The four production lines that the company originally planned to start in the second half of the year may not be completed and put into production as scheduled.

Since then, Dio Home (002798. Shenzhen), Brilliance (3006 10. SZ), China Agricultural Union (003042. SZ), excellent talent resources (002998. SZ), Limin (002734. Shenzhen) and Feng Run (30650)

With the continuous expansion of the scope of power rationing, as many as 10 listed companies issued a notice on limiting movie noise on September 27th. Among them, the news that Li Tao bread production stopped (603866. SH) even rushed to the hot search.

According to the disclosure, nine wholly-owned subsidiaries of Li Tao Bread located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Tianjin and Heilongjiang all received the notice of power cut from the local government, and even stopped production.

According to the research report of CICC, from the perspective of specific industries, industries that are greatly affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption include but are not limited to steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and chemical fiber. The main characteristics of these industries are high energy consumption and high carbon emissions. Measures taken include direct production suspension, reduction of production capacity (ranging from 20% to 90%), off-peak production, limited electricity consumption, and reduction of electricity concessions.

Global "expensive winter"

This round of "power rationing" is by no means limited to China. In fact, the world is welcoming an "expensive winter".

In recent years, most major economies are promoting the transformation of energy structure. However, when the work in Europe and America has made progress, the pain has followed.

1, the price of coal and natural gas in Europe and America skyrocketed, and the electricity price skyrocketed.

According to the data provided by Wind, the international price of thermal coal has increased several times in the last year. As of September 24th, the spot prices of thermal coal in ARA Port in Europe, Richard RB in South Africa and NEWC in Australia were 185.68 USD/ton, 16 1.65438 USD/ton and 188.72 USD/ton, respectively, up by 249 compared with a year ago.

At the same time, natural gas prices in Europe and America are constantly hitting record highs. As of September 24th, the European natural gas futures price has soared from 8 pounds per MWh in May 2020 to around 200 pounds, an increase of nearly 25 times. On September 27th, US NYMEX 10/October natural gas futures closed up 1 1.0 1% to US$ 5.7060/million british thermal unit, the highest since February 20th14th. ICE UK natural gas futures closed up 8.20% at190.39P/kcal, hitting an intraday high of193.23P, approaching the historical high recorded on September 15.

With the soaring price of coal and natural gas, the electricity price in Europe and America has also entered the fast lane of rising. According to the data of us energy information administration (EIA), as of July, the electricity prices in Italy, Spain, Germany and France increased by 166%, 167%, 170% and 134% respectively compared with a year ago. In the same period, the electricity consumption of American residents reached 13.9 cents/kwh, a record high.

Regarding the price trend of natural gas, Samantha Dart, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said that if the winter in Europe is colder than expected, then Europe may need to compete with Asia for LNG supply. It is predicted that it may increase further at the end of this year and early next year, because the winter temperature this year is colder than before.

This in turn will affect the supply and price of Asian oil and gas markets, including China.

2. The stability of energy structure in Europe and America is challenged.

Under the global low-carbon action, thermal power generation is gradually abandoned in Europe, the forefront of environmental protection. For example, in Spain and Britain, thermal power only accounts for 4% and 2%. This is related to the continuous promotion of energy structure transformation in Europe and America in recent years.

The World Energy Statistical Yearbook published by BP shows that in the past two years, countries such as Europe and America have greatly improved the green energy structure. For example, in Europe, the overall power structure has formed a pattern in which nuclear energy, renewable energy and natural gas power generation account for the top three. In addition, us energy information administration (EIA) data also show that in 2020, the proportion of renewable energy development (including hydropower) in Europe (including Britain) is close to 40%, natural gas power generation is about 20%, and coal power generation is less than 15%.

However, this year, due to extreme weather such as extreme high pressure and large-scale drought, the wind power and hydropower that Europe vigorously developed during the year plummeted. In Europe, as of July this year, the proportion of wind power generation decreased from 17% at the beginning of the year to less than 1 1%. And in June this year, the proportion of wind power generation in Europe once fell below 9%, almost returning to the level of the same period of 20 19.

It is generally believed that the reason for this round of "power shortage" in European and American countries is that some renewable energy power generation has been "stopped" due to extreme climate. As a result, the demand for natural gas and thermal power has surged. The third quarter energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the global natural gas demand will increase by 3.2% this year and will continue to increase in the next few years.

However, an objective fact is that before and after the epidemic, the enthusiasm for oil and gas exploration and production around the world has been cooling down, and the production capacity reserve has declined. According to the Report on the Development of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 2020 issued by China Institute of Petroleum Economics and Technology, last year, the world * * * obtained 179 oil and gas discoveries, and the newly discovered oil and gas reserves195 million tons of oil equivalent, a sharp drop of 30% year-on-year; New natural gas reserves decreased by 43% year-on-year, and global natural gas production was only 4 trillion cubic meters, down by 3.6% year-on-year.

With the fluctuation of renewable energy supply, Europe's dependence on natural gas has increased. So far, the United States and Russia are the main exporters of natural gas in Europe. But now, the two major exporting countries are lowering their production expectations. At the end of August, American natural gas exports were hit hard by Hurricane Ida. Russia recently estimated the natural gas production in 20021year to be 75.88 billion cubic meters, and lowered its natural gas production forecast in 2022.

We must attach great importance to the supply side.

In fact, whether in Europe, America or China, the two * * * are facing the problem of insufficient power supply. Although it is inevitable to talk about the increasing demand for electricity production in China since the outbreak when analyzing the power shortage in many places in China. However, insiders also pointed out that in 20 18 years, when the annual growth rate of electricity consumption was as high as 8.5%, there was no large-scale power cut.

1, coal supply is tight.

As a country rich in coal, poor in gas and poor in oil, although China has been continuously transforming its energy structure in recent years, thermal power is still the core power source in the current power structure.

According to the data of BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 202 1, coal power generation accounted for 63% of China's power structure last year, which was 15 percentage points and 2 percentage points lower than that of 20 18 and 20 19 respectively. Hydropower is the second largest power generation source, accounting for 17% of the total power generation. The proportion of renewable energy represented by wind power and photovoltaics increased to 1 1%, which was 9.7 percentage points higher than that of 20 18 and 20 19, respectively. In addition, the proportion of nuclear energy and natural gas in power generation has remained relatively stable in the last two years, and will be 4.7% and 3.2% respectively in 2020.

The current power structure determines that the current power coal supply is still the core of the power supply terminal.

According to the data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from June to August this year, China produced 2.597 billion tons of raw coal, up 4.4% year-on-year. Imported coal 1.98 billion tons, down 1.3% year-on-year. Among them, 335 million tons of raw coal was produced in August, and the year-on-year growth rate changed from 3.3% in the previous month to 0.8%. Imported coal was 28.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that since August, both domestic coal production and imports have improved. However, the release of coal production still needs a process.

It is undeniable that China's coal production capacity is in a downward cycle in recent years. Especially since July this year, the mismatch between domestic coal supply and demand has become more and more serious.

On the demand side, with the economic recovery after the epidemic, China's industrial production has shown a strong development momentum. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of added value and capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China were both higher than that of the same period last year. In addition, the demand for electricity is improving. From June to August, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society increased 13.8% year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry, which accounts for 2/3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society, has increased by 13. 1%, which is the core reason for promoting the high growth of electricity consumption of the whole society.

On the supply side, on the one hand, the domestic coal production capacity is in the background of periodic decline, and on the other hand, due to the influence of international relations and overseas epidemics, China's coal imports from Mongolia and Australia have decreased this year. Under the superposition of various factors, domestic coal stocks are currently facing certain pressure.

Wind data shows that in terms of major ports, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port declined as a whole, and the daily inventory was as low as 3.52 million tons in early September; Since the beginning of this year, the coal inventory of key power plants in China has been declining continuously, and it has dropped to 48.9 million tons in August.

2. The decline of hydropower.

At present, hydropower is still the second largest power source in the power structure of China. However, this year, the growth rate of hydropower generation has declined.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that. 1 By August this year, China's hydropower generation above designated size was about 76 17 1 100 million kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Among them, North China, Northeast China and East China, which account for a relatively small proportion of power generation, maintained the growth of hydropower generation, while the power generation of major hydropower provinces such as Central South, Southwest China and Northwest China declined.

Affected by climatic conditions such as dry weather, the hydropower generation in the south-central, southwest and northwest regions from June to August this year was1.81.800 million kwh, 448.29 billion kwh and 77.51100 million kwh respectively. Among them, the power generation of key hydropower provinces has shrunk: the hydropower generation in Hubei Province is 96.67 billion kWh, down 5.8% year-on-year; The hydropower generation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was 34.26 billion kWh, down 2.3% year-on-year; Hydropower generation in Sichuan Province198.39 billion kWh, down 4.6% year-on-year.

It is worth mentioning that since 20 15, the newly installed capacity of hydropower in China has shown a downward trend as a whole. In 2020, China's hydropower generation will quadruple to13.23 million kilowatts, up by 2 17.3% year-on-year. However, behind this high growth, the first batch of units in wudongde hydropower station of Jinsha River was put into operation, with a total installed capacity of 10.2 million kilowatts.

3. Wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy sources have not reached a great task.

With the promotion of the dual-carbon target, the production capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic continues to expand, and the proportion of power generation continues to increase. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, in 2020, the cumulative power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation nationwide increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.5%, accounting for 9.6% of the total electricity consumption. The goal set by the National Energy Administration is that the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total social electricity consumption will reach about 1 1% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2025.

On the whole, with the increase of the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power generation, many provinces rich in scenic resources began to rely on wind power and photovoltaic. However, in this year's extreme weather, the stability of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation is challenged.

Behind the scarcity of electricity consumption of residents in Northeast China, the sudden drop of wind power is also considered as one of the reasons. According to "Liaoning Daily" news, the Liaoning Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology held a provincial electric power work security conference on September 26, pointing out that from September 23 to 25, due to the sudden drop of wind and other reasons, the power supply gap further increased to a serious extent.

Guotai Junan believes that "from the current power generation structure in China, the dependence on thermal power is still serious, and wind power and photovoltaics have failed to contribute their due output." According to the agency's analysis, although the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic in China has reached 24% at present, the current output only accounts for about 10% of the power generation, indicating that China is more dependent on thermal power, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is out of proportion to its power generation, failing to contribute its due output. Judging from the growth rate of power generation, wind power output has increased substantially, reaching 44.7% year-on-year, while the growth rate of photovoltaic power generation is still low, only 9.7%. On the contrary, the growth rate of thermal power, whose installed capacity has been declining, has reached 16. 1%. This shows that the imbalance of power generation structure also has the trend characteristics, which poses a great challenge to the overall power supply.

It is worth mentioning that the stability of wind power and photovoltaic, which are greatly affected by the natural environment, has always been a key issue in the process of large-scale development. Therefore, the research on energy storage and UHV technology closely related to new energy power generation needs to be improved to eliminate the contradiction between the rapid development of new energy and supporting infrastructure.

Thoughts on "Travel" of Energy Structure

In the past ten years, there have been three large-scale local blackouts in China.

20 10, the closing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, many provinces began to implement "power rationing" in May under the constraint of energy consumption intensity targets, and then basically stopped in June of that year because it affected the economic production order.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia successively introduced power rationing measures to deal with the phased power shortage.

This time, from May 20021year, it continued to ferment for the third time, and its influence was still expanding.

Different from the previous two rounds, the reason for this round of power cut is the "trip" phenomenon of the current energy structure itself.

China is welcoming the "fast walking" period of energy structure transformation. In the process of power system transformation, when the traditional energy is smoothly transferred to clean energy, we need to pay attention to the following problems to alleviate the "power shortage" and prevent power failure.

1. It is necessary to stabilize the supply of thermal power in the next few years.

The key factor of this round of power rationing lies in the supply side, and China's electricity demand will still maintain a certain growth rate in the next few years.

The China Energy and Electric Power Development Planning Research in 2030 and Prospect in 2060 issued by the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization predicts that the social electricity consumption in China will increase from 7.5 trillion kWh in 2020 to 9.2 trillion kWh and 10.7 trillion kWh in 2025 and 2030. The report further measures the growth rate of demand-from 2020 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of social electricity consumption in China is about 4.2%; From 2025 to 2030, electricity consumption will increase by about 3% annually; From 2030 to 2050 and from 2050 to 2060, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption will drop to 2% and 0.6%.

On this basis, Guotai Junan predicts that in the future, with the restriction of carbon neutrality on coal production capacity and the decline of the growth rate of newly installed thermal power, the growth rate of thermal power generation will drop from 5.6% of 202 1 to1.3% in 2025; With the increasing installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic, the annual growth rate of power generation will remain above 10%.

However, in such a power structure transformation, the growth rate of China's power supply will continue to be lower than that of power demand, and there is a certain gap between supply and demand. In the whole conversion process, the stability of thermal power supply will also be related to the smooth transition of power structure in the next few years.

2. Avoid "one size fits all" carbon emission reduction.

This round-limit electricity is placed in a larger background: "energy consumption double control target assessment". In many places, the power outage is to complete the double control assessment. In some places, because of being interviewed, meetings were held overnight to "uniformly arrange" power outages. However, "energy consumption double control target assessment" is not the fundamental reason for this round of power rationing.

"Double control of energy consumption" is an old policy that has been implemented for many years. Since 2006, China has taken energy consumption intensity as a binding index, and started to implement the dual-control assessment of energy consumption on 20 1 1. Among them, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" takes the reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP as a binding index, and puts forward the requirement of reasonably controlling the total energy consumption; The 13th Five-Year Plan proposes that by 2020, the energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 15% compared with 20 15 years, and the total energy consumption will be lower than the target of 5 billion tons of standard coal.

As mentioned earlier, in the closing year of the 11th Five-Year Plan of 20 10, under the constraint of energy intensity target, many provinces in China also experienced the phenomenon of "power cut". As a result, social production and economic order will eventually be affected, which is a lesson from the past.

Although "dual control of energy consumption" is a rigid requirement and carbon reduction is the general trend, "sports-style" carbon reduction is very harmful to economic and social life, and even does more harm than good.

It is worth noting that China and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee made a clear statement at the meeting on July 30th in view of some deviations in the work of peak CO2 emission. The meeting demanded that the work of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality should be done in an overall and orderly manner, the action plan of peak carbon dioxide emission before 2030 should be put forward as soon as possible, a national chess game should be adhered to, the "carbon reduction" of sports should be corrected, the "two highs" project should be established first and then broken, blind development should be resolutely curbed, and the power supply during the peak summer should be ensured.

3. Reconstruct the dynamic system and beware of radical thinking.

At present, under the guidance of the goal of "double carbon", the power structure in China is undergoing a positive transformation. According to the data of BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 202 1, from 2009 to 2020, the power structure in China is undergoing significant changes. In 2009, China's coal power generation accounted for 78%, hydropower accounted for 17%, and renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic accounted for 1.3%. In 2020, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will drop to 63%, and the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic will rise to 1 1%, while the proportion of hydropower will remain unchanged.

The change of this set of data shows that in the process of power structure adjustment in recent ten years, the proportion of coal and renewable energy power generation has been dominant.

However, a realistic problem is that we still need to face up to the position of thermal power in the current power structure transformation.

Wind data shows that in 2020, thermal power will account for 56.6% of the installed power generation structure in China, and wind power and photovoltaic will account for 24%. However, it is obvious that 56.6% of thermal power installed capacity corresponds to 63% of power generation, and 24% of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity only corresponds to 1 1% of power generation. This means that while China is vigorously developing new energy sources, new energy power generation cannot assume the leading role of the current power structure supply.

4. Accelerate the development of energy storage and UHV technology.

What is worthy of recognition is that after decades of development, the technical cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China has dropped significantly, and the era of cheap Internet access is coming.

Regardless of resource acquisition or power generation potential, new energy will be the best choice to dominate the world energy structure in the future. However, with the increase of installed power generation capacity, how to keep new energy power generation stably connected to the grid and avoid disorderly off-grid phenomenon is also a problem to be solved in vigorously developing new energy.

In fact, there are lessons in this respect. 2065438+On August 9th, 2009, the British power grid was blacked out, concentrated in England and Wales, and about 1 10,000 people were affected by the blackout. The data shows that in 20 19, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation in Britain has risen to 35%. The accident was caused by the failure of a large number of offshore wind power and distributed photovoltaic in the British power grid, which led to the system frequency dropping to 48.9 Hz, triggering the operation of low-frequency load shedding devices in the system and cutting off a large number of loads. According to the data at that time, when the accident happened, the wind power penetration rate in Britain had reached 34.7438+0%. During this power outage, the pumping unit increased its output in time to prevent the accident from further expanding.

It is not difficult to find out from the blackout accident in Britain that wind power and photovoltaic power generation have random risks, that is, they are greatly affected by weather and climate.

Guotai Junan pointed out that energy storage technology can effectively adjust the changes of grid voltage, frequency and phase caused by new energy power generation, solve the randomness and fluctuation of new energy power generation to a great extent, and realize the stable output of new energy power generation; In addition, UHV technology can transport resources from rich areas to load centers, and solve the problem of regional dislocation between resources and loads. Therefore, energy storage and UHV technology are worth developing vigorously.

References:

1, "Supply is the reason for this round of" power shortage "-the second observation series of energy and energy consumption", the monarch's macro research;

2. China Energy and Power Development Plan in 2030 and Prospect Research in 2060, Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization;

3. Conduction path under power and production constraints, CICC；;

4. Macro analysis and prospect of energy consumption, limited production and limited electricity, CITIC Securities;

5. "Power rationing in Northeast China has nothing to do with dual control of energy consumption, and these three points are the real reasons", Caijing magazine;

6. "Britain" 20 19? 8? 9. Power outage accident analysis report and power window;

7.BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook 202 1 Edition, BP;

8. "Production cuts dominate the market, and steel prices will be consolidated at a high level next week", Lange Steel;

9.202 1 Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of the Year, China Electric Power Enterprise Association.