Under the joint influence of supply and demand, the price of pork has decreased by more than 30%, reaching as high as 34%.
In terms of food prices, the price of peanuts is still falling due to the increase in enterprise inventory and the decrease in operating rate.
Although the surplus vehicles of corn deep processing enterprises decreased in the morning, the price of corn was also decreasing.
Although it is theoretically in the peak season of fish demand at present, the price of freshwater fish is falling both in volume and price.
First, the local egg price "breaks 5"
After a period of sideways stabilization, the price of eggs finally could not bear the pressure of the market, and also embarked on the road of decline. In most parts of Hebei, parts of Dezhou, Heze and Jining in Shandong, and parts of Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Shanxi, the price of eggs has fallen below that of 5 yuan.
On the other hand, in the market, in recent days, the price of eliminated chickens has been falling all the way, from the beginning close to 6 yuan to less than 5 yuan. The decline in the price of eliminated chickens shows that farmers are more enthusiastic about eliminating old chickens.
Although the newly opened laying hens in June 5438+February rebounded slightly compared with June165438+1October, considering the strong elimination of laying hens at the breeding end, it is expected that the production capacity will still be in a slight decline.
In this state, the price of eggs can still fall, which only shows that the consumer side is in an abnormal downturn, which is mainly related to the following factors:
1. At present, it is the off-season of egg consumption. After cooling, the main thing is to eat meat.
2. Pork prices have been greatly reduced, further seizing the egg market.
3. Affected by the epidemic, the number of households increased, and the consumption of restaurants and canteens was low.
4. The operating rate of food processing plants is low, and the demand for eggs is weak.
As the price of eggs falls, the sentiment of holding prices at the breeding end will gradually increase. Considering the recovery of supermarket demand and subsequent consumption before the Spring Festival, it is expected that egg prices will not continue to fall before the Spring Festival, and there is still the possibility of rising.
Second, the price of pork is reduced by 30%.
According to statistics, from 65438+1October 19 to 65438+February 19, the futures price of live pigs in China dropped by over 30% in 44 trading days, reaching 33.4%.
In terms of spot price, the pig price dropped from 28.52 yuan/kg in June 10 to 17.42 yuan/kg in February 19, a decrease of 40.3%.
Pork prices have fallen. First, because the Spring Festival in 2023 is earlier, the time window for appropriate slaughter before the year is shorter, and farmers "reflect everything" and the spot is under pressure.
Second, because the big pigs and the second fattening pigs that were crushed before entered the final slaughter time one after another.
Third, because of the recent decline in the overall consumption level of residents, the demand for bacon decreased by 30% year-on-year.
Fourth, because collectivized pig farms speed up the slaughter, complete the annual slaughter task, and also want to lock in profits.
For the follow-up pig price trend, the industry is generally not optimistic about the price before the year, while the view after the year is polarized.
The main reason for not being optimistic years ago is that the pig slaughter will continue to be high, the spot will take some time to stabilize, and the terminal consumption will continue to be suppressed by the epidemic. The relationship between pork supply and demand is difficult to reverse, and the risk of rebound before the year is greater.
After the year, it is certain that the recent decline in pig prices will greatly overdraw the pig production capacity in 1 and February, and the risk of pig prices will be released to a great extent, which will bring rising opportunities for February and March after the year.
But considering two points, first, the number of pigs to be slaughtered in March next year corresponds to the number of sows that can be bred in September this year. At that time, the price of pigs was rising, and the number of fertile sows was also increasing, which means that the number of pigs available for slaughter is likely to remain stable and increase.
Second, March is the traditional off-season of pork consumption in China.
Therefore, some people think that the pig price will continue to decline weakly compared with 1 in March next year.
However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently announced that it will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to boost pig prices and promote the long-term healthy development of the pig market.
Changing the previous rhetoric of increasing investment during the "two festivals" will not only help alleviate the panic of farmers and prevent panic slaughter, but also promote pork consumption to a certain extent and fundamentally prevent the continuous decline of pig prices.
Third, peanuts and corn are still falling.
According to agency statistics, the prices of peanuts and corn are still falling, with the price of rice in Fuyu 308 in Jilin being 5.30-5.35 yuan/kg, that in Xinbaisha in Jinzhou, Liaoning being 5.25 yuan/kg, that in Baisha in Junan, Shandong being 5. 15 yuan/kg, and that in Luanxian, Hebei being 5.40-5.50 yuan/kg.
The purchase price of peanuts in the oil plant is lowered by 200 yuan/ton, while the price of white sand in the main producing area is maintained at around 5.25-5.4 yuan/kg, and the market price is subject to quality.
The decline in peanut prices is mainly related to the following two logics:
1, the inventory of oil plants increased 1450 tons, which formed a strong support for peanut supply.
2. Affected by the decline of peanut oil price and crushing profit, the operating rate of oil plants decreased by 1.3%, and the demand for peanuts weakened.
After the price reduction of peanuts, grassroots farmers' reluctance to sell has increased.
Because the terminal delivery of peanut oil is not smooth, the price of peanut meal continues to run weakly, the profit of oil plants declines, and the willingness of peanut price increase is very low.
Finally, with the intervention of imported peanuts, the price of peanuts is difficult to rise in the short term, and it is likely to fluctuate and adjust weakly.
In terms of corn price, with the decrease of the number of vehicles arriving in the morning by deep processing enterprises, the price of corn in Shandong stopped falling and stabilized, with only a few enterprises dropping by 0.5- 1 point, but the price of corn in Northeast China dropped by 0.5-2.5 points.
After the number of infected people increased, transportation was blocked again, and after the price fell, the mood of grassroots farmers and traders became stronger, and the price of corn stopped falling and stabilized.
However, due to the upside-down price in Northeast China and North China, corn can only be consumed locally, with limited demand and accelerated price decline.
Next, the high volume of corn should come to an end and the corn market will return to the relationship between supply and demand. After the price reduction, farmers and traders are in a good price mood. Some farmers have abandoned the pre-holiday grain sales plan, and deep processing enterprises and feed have pre-holiday stocking demand, which will help stimulate the corn price to stop falling or even rebound slightly.
Fourth, the quantity and price of highly nutritious fish have fallen.
According to the report of China Aquaculture Network, it includes snakehead, mandarin fish, California bass, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _.
The decline in fish market sales is mainly due to the fact that fish can't be sold. In order to stimulate consumption, we can only reduce the price, which leads to the situation that the volume and price of freshwater fish market fall together.
This is mainly because of the impact of the epidemic, on the one hand, it has affected the catering consumption demand of hotels and restaurants.
On the other hand, in order to prevent infection, residents choose to go out as little as possible, resulting in a decline in passenger flow in stalls, supermarkets and other places, and freshwater fish can't walk.
In the short term, the consumption demand of freshwater fish is difficult to change significantly. Even the processing plants of snakehead, snakehead and snakehead are closed for holiday because of the increase of infected people, so the purchase volume of the factories is not large, and the prices of these highly nutritious fish will continue to be depressed in the short term.