Originally, July and August should be the time when the corn was green and yellow, and the new corn was not on the market. It was the time when the old work was "finally crazy", but the corn in August was like falling into a pit and could not afford to fall.
By the middle and late August, the market began to have a glimmer of hope, that is, the Mid-Autumn Festival stocking.
But now it seems to be the end of August, only ten days before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the downstream stocking has been slow.
Why is there no movement?
1, downstream consumption is sluggish, and the operating rate of deep processing is low.
Generally speaking, as holidays approach, deep processing enterprises will stock up in advance according to the production cycle and holiday nodes. However, due to the sluggish consumption this year and the poor downstream consumption of starch sugar, paper making and food, the confidence of enterprises is obviously insufficient.
For example, due to film restrictions in parts of South China, East China and Central China, the operating rate of deep processing continues to decline. At the same time, due to the sluggish demand, some corn was purchased intermittently at low prices during the period, and there is still inventory at present, so there is no hurry to replenish it.
On the other hand, the operating rate of corrugated paper related to corn starch demand is not high, especially after entering the off-season in August, consumption is even more sluggish, and enterprises delay purchasing and stocking before Mid-Autumn Festival.
2. Diversified supply and more choices for feed enterprises.
At present, some spring corn has been listed one after another. At this time, the deep processing price reduction is normal, but the feed enterprises have a long stocking cycle, and the current pig price has rebounded significantly. According to market expectation, pig prices in the third and fourth quarters are generally optimistic.
According to this logic, feed enterprises should increase stocking, and the price of corn is already at a low level.
But in fact, the stocking demand of feed enterprises has not been splashed too much. One of the important reasons is that feed enterprises have more choices.
I thought that corn would "monopolize the power" after wheat withdrew from substitution, but this year's directional rice auction replaced wheat and became a new substitute. Coupled with the listing of spring corn, the supply has increased, and feed enterprises are more worried.
Deep processing and feed stocking failed, so corn kept falling.
So when can corn rebound from the bottom of the pit? At present, this problem is an eternal problem.
Because in the short term, there is little chance of this rebound.
On the one hand, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and on the other hand, it is getting closer and closer to the large-scale listing of corn in Northeast China, so it is basically difficult for corn to rise at this time.
However, we have also noticed that corn futures have risen recently and spot corn has gradually stabilized.
On the one hand, the reason is that from the current corn price, there is really not much room for decline.
On the other hand, how much does the weather affect the new corn? At present, there are different opinions in the market, and there is no accurate judgment, because many news can't be verified, the production reduction in individual areas may be exaggerated, and there is no exact data on the comprehensive impact.
However, this may become an important opportunity for corn to bottom out.
Therefore, it is necessary to closely collect the influence of weather on the new season corn.
Generally speaking, this year's corn is really difficult, the price is unpredictable and the trade is difficult.