1, market size
The market size determines the real price of commodity futures. If the futures market is very large and independent traders are forced to accept the contract price without initiative, the changes of commodity prices in the commodity futures market will not be controlled by a single manipulator or irrational factors; In addition, if the commodity futures market is large enough and there are enough traders in the commodity futures market, the commodity futures contract price will fully reflect the market information, and the commodity futures contract price we get is the most real price.
2. The relationship between supply and demand of commodity futures basic assets
Commodity futures are closely related to spot targets. Because the spot price is influenced by the actual supply and demand of spot goods in the market, and the spot price will affect the futures contract price, the futures contract price is also influenced by the supply and demand of goods and external market factors.
3. Speculation and hedging ratio
In commodity futures market, hedgers and speculators are important components. The purpose of hedgers is to fully disperse market risks, and they prefer to see the price of commodity futures contracts consistent with the price of spot targets. Speculators in the market are eager for higher profits and enliven the market in speculation, which also indicates that they will face huge market risks while obtaining possible high returns.
Therefore, only when there is an appropriate proportion between hedgers and speculators can the market operate healthily, otherwise, if the market is full of a large number of hedgers, they are risk-averse, the market liquidity is poor, and the futures contract price cannot reflect the information in time; On the other hand, if the market is full of speculators, the risk is very high, which may lead to the endangerment of the whole futures market. Therefore, only by ensuring that the futures contract price in the market is consistent with the spot ratio can the futures market play its value and operate steadily.