As of the close of the morning session on August 5, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 2.34% to close at $88.54/barrel, falling below the $90/barrel mark. London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery 65438+ 10 fell 2.75% to close at 94. 12 USD/barrel.
This is a sharp drop in international oil prices for two consecutive days. On August 3rd, both American Oil and Bun Oil fell by nearly 4% in a single day, WTI crude oil fell to 90.66 USD/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell to 96.78 USD/barrel.
Longzhong information analysis pointed out that the reason for the current decline in oil prices is that economic data is still weak, and the market's concern that the global economic slowdown may curb crude oil demand has intensified.
From the news point of view, in addition to economic data, the unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States and the decision of OPEC+composed of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its oil-producing allies to increase production slightly in September have all become disturbing factors in the recent oil price market.
On August 3rd, us energy information administration data showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.5 million barrels per day last week, and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased due to the decline in exports and the reduction of refinery refining capacity.
On the same day, OPEC+agreed to raise its oil production target in September by 654.38+10,000 barrels per day, equivalent to about 0. 1% of the global oil demand. The market expects that this move will not have a significant impact on oil prices. This rate is much lower than the increase of 648,000 barrels per day set in July and August.
As the world's major oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to cooperate within the framework of OPEC+,and Saudi Arabia is unwilling to increase production at the expense of Russia.
US President Biden visited Saudi Arabia, the actual leader of OPEC+,in July, hoping that OPEC+could take further measures to increase production. However, due to concerns about the shortage of idle capacity and the uncertainty of the long-term supply prospects in the global oil market, OPEC+indicated that it would use the limited excess capacity cautiously.
According to S&P's global analysis, OPEC+small increase in production measures is a slight expression of the United States urging to increase production, but it is also seeking a measurable means to protect the unexpected wealth of oil-producing countries.
Such a move is actually in line with previous market expectations. In the past few months, OPEC+oil producers failed to reach the planned production scale. In fact, as the market has repeatedly discussed, in today's OPEC+organization, except Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, almost no other members can significantly increase production, while Russia is still under continuous sanctions.
In the communique of the meeting, OPEC+said that insufficient investment in the upstream sector will affect the continuous and sufficient supply of crude oil, which in turn will have an impact on meeting the growing oil demand of oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries after 2023.
Compared with cooling oil prices by increasing supply, weak economic data leads to sluggish demand, which forms a more obvious downward pressure on oil prices from the demand side.
Citic Futures Research Report pointed out that the recent slowdown in global oil demand is more obvious, the economic growth rate continues to fall, the US and European central banks accelerate the tightening, and the medium-term oil demand expectation gradually moves down.
However, after OPEC+did not significantly increase production as expected by the United States, the focus of the crude oil market began to negotiate around the Iranian nuclear agreement. On August 4th, the Iranian oil minister said that Iran was ready to return to the international crude oil market as soon as possible. On August 3, Iran, the European Union and the United States confirmed that they would send high-level representatives to Vienna to participate in the Iranian nuclear agreement negotiations. If Iran finally starts to increase production, it is expected to increase crude oil supply to cope with the pressure of high oil prices.
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