80% hype, there is no doubt that the impact of bird flu on egg spot will definitely decrease, but the decline of futures, especially the decline of forward futures, is definitely hype. If bird flu breaks out now, the current main contract of eggs 15 will drop sharply (150 1), but 1 who can explain it? Moreover, due to the outbreak of avian influenza, a large number of laying hens were killed. If there is no bird flu in May 438+1June next year, isn't there a shortage of laying hens and the number of eggs has not soared? Therefore, the long-term impact of spot emergencies is market interpretation. Most of it can be understood as hype, because everyone thinks that when bird flu comes, eggs will be sold short, and big funds are willing to do so, and hedge accounts are more willing to participate. If the price of eggs is low by then, they will make a profit through direct delivery, and if the flu has passed by then, they will make a profit through speculation. Neither side suffers.

Of course, what we are talking about here is the main futures contract, not the contract in recent months. Contracts in recent months are mainly based on spot reasons. The main contract is generally far away.