1: What is a stock?
Many friends know about stocks in 2006 and 2007, because we experienced an unprecedented bull market. Stock is one of the behaviors that companies raise from the society in order to raise funds. Others include issuing corporate bonds, borrowing from banks and other financing means. When a company goes public for the first time, we call it IPO (initial public offering). Its main purpose is to raise funds from the open market and then invest in our own company, so as to achieve the purpose of long-term profit. Capital is the key to the development and survival of every enterprise. Whether there is money will restrict and affect the future of the enterprise.
The stock price can reflect the company's profitability and development level. Theoretically, if the company has good performance and good growth, the stock price will rise accordingly, and the two should complement each other. This is only from a microscopic point of view.
From a macro point of view, the enterprise's field, national policy and economic environment will also limit the reaction of the enterprise's stock price. To give a simple example, the appreciation of RMB, the rapid economic growth of China and the relative depreciation of the US dollar. A series of factors will affect China's securities market and stock market, which is what we call a "big bull market". Therefore, in this bull market, the stock price can't reflect the company's original performance and performance well, and it is often overvalued, which is what we often see as "XXX's stock is overvalued".
Comparatively speaking, in a bear market, the stock price is often undervalued, which means that the stock will be depressed, which does not reflect the actual situation of the company. In this case, many people's stocks are often "hedged".
2. My personal experience
This is probably what you want to know most. My personal ability is limited, so I can only talk briefly. I hope other friends can add it.
There are two viewpoints in the stock market, one is fundamental analysis and the other is technical analysis.
(1) Fundamental analysis:
This is an important analysis method for value investors to look at the prospect of a stock. The so-called fundamentals, is to look at the company's operating conditions. We can understand this in many ways. One thing must be noted, no matter what kind of news you get, you should pay attention to the objectivity of your brain, and the supervisor will analyze it before drawing a conclusion.
First, you can look at the company's three annual reports. If you don't understand them and don't have a deep theoretical foundation, take a look at several key disciplines:
Net profit (net profit):
This is one of the last items in the company's income statement. If this figure grows faster than in previous years, it can give people a feeling that the company is developing better. I just always feel that if you can find a company's 10-20 year report and see the rapid development of the project, it means that the company is developing steadily. If the growth rate remains above 50% for a long time, it can be preliminarily judged that the company's operating conditions are high growth period. Its stock is worth investing, and we will also predict that it will maintain such a high growth rate in the future.
It should be noted here that we should not just compare this year with last year, but must "shop around" and compare the statements of several years. Otherwise, there will be wrong judgment. For example, if you compare the statements of CITIC Securities in 2006 and 2005, you will find that in 2006, this enterprise had a great growth. Is it because of the rapid development of this enterprise? The answer is no, it is precisely because the form of the securities investment industry in 2006 is very good that it will have a good performance in 2006. However, it is not comprehensive to judge that this enterprise is very good, especially good.
B: net assets
In fact, the method of obtaining net assets is very simple, and you can find it in the balance sheet. It's total assets minus total liabilities. The increase of net assets can show that the enterprise has a strong ability to repay debts, so as to avoid going bankrupt because of a large number of debts. As you can imagine, if an enterprise's assets can't compare with its liabilities, its shares should be worthless at all, because it may go bankrupt at any time.
C: cash
At this point, I think anyone with a little social common sense can understand why cash is a very important thing. Without cash, it is impossible to conduct trading operations. For an enterprise, the liquidity of cash is a very important indicator. We sometimes hear that a company's cash chain is broken, which leads to bankruptcy. Think about it. Enterprises have no money to buy raw materials, what business can they talk about? Nobody wants to sell you anything. Why? Because you have no money! What will happen? Then this enterprise must be yellow.
Of course, when the cash flow is negative, we can't force this enterprise to die, mainly depending on its development. If the initial investment cost of this enterprise is relatively large, we will see whether it can recover the cost as soon as possible and make a profit in the future.
D: PE value (P/E ratio) P/B ratio; PB value (P/B ratio)
These two values are also relatively direct methods to measure whether the stock valuation is reasonable. PE is the share price divided by the price/earnings per share. The smaller the value, the more overvalued the stock, and vice versa. PB is the value obtained by dividing the stock price by the price/income of net assets per share. The smaller the better, the smaller the investment value.
But you will definitely ask, how much is small and how much is meaningful for investment. Frankly speaking, this is hard to say. Theoretically, compared with other enterprises in the same industry. For example, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye belong to the liquor industry, and the PE value should be similar in theory. If the PE of Maotai is 100 and that of Wuliangye is 50, then we can understand that Wuliangye has more investment value than Maotai, and Wuliangye is relatively undervalued. Of course, the example I gave is too simple and absolute, and the specific problems still need to be analyzed in detail. If you compare Maotai with the steel industry, the comparability is not great, so you generally don't compare it.
Some fund managers and investors compare the price-earnings ratio (PE) of a stock with the broader market. If it is lower than the market, it shows that it has certain investment value, or compare the PE of this stock at a historical peak (bull market) to judge the investment value of this stock at this stage.
Personally, I think this comparison is problematic, because I have always stressed that the general environment has changed. The bull market in those days can't be summarized by the current situation in China. The current bull market has richer elements than the previous bull market, such as the sharp increase in our foreign exchange reserves and the sharp increase in the pressure of RMB appreciation. Our inflation has been challenged as never before. Therefore, the previous PE can only be used as a reference at most, and cannot simply be a reason for investment.
If we compare the current market price-earnings ratio with the price-earnings ratio of individual stocks, it is also problematic. After all, the heavyweights in the market, that is, those stocks that tremble at the sound of their names, such as PetroChina, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have made great contributions to market stability and P/E ratio. Therefore, the PE of small stocks that often appear in the market is not comparable at all, because it is too small, so the contribution of small stocks is completely buried, that is to say, compared with the market, the difference is a bit far. Personal suggestions are compared with similar industries in mature foreign markets. If there are really PE-like stocks in similar fields in mature foreign markets, wow, congratulations, you have to buy even if you sell iron in the pot. What a pity, what a pity ~ ~ ~
Some people will say, you have said so much, why can't you tell, then how do you judge the quality of a stock? I said that every parameter has its meaning, and your personal judgment is supported by data or ideas. After your brain's thinking or advice from other smarter brains, the final decision is often comparison. It is absolutely impossible to just look at a little. Some people just look at PE blindly, the lower the better. This is complete nonsense. Some companies have lost money this year, and they don't even have a price-earnings ratio. Is it more valuable for investment?
Secondly, the industry in which the enterprise is located is also very important. I think many people will have different views on this. For example, at present, the international oil price is rising constantly, exceeding $0/00 per barrel, which is a growth factor for companies that do business around crude oil, such as PetroChina and Sinopec. But at the same time, it will be easier for enterprises that buy oil processing. Why? Because of the high cost. Automobile, instrument and other iron and steel enterprises will have periodicity, high for a period of time and low for a period of time, which needs to be understood clearly.
It is very helpful for you to analyze the current market again. For another example, the state's strict policies on real estate and developers have led to some fluctuations in the stocks of real estate enterprises. For example, Vanke A, the largest and most cattle developer in China, has also experienced many ups and downs. Therefore, looking at national policies is of great guiding significance to your stock selection. But don't blindly think that any new policies introduced by the state today, whether good or bad, can't be reflected in the stock market immediately. For example, the state raised the reserve ratio and interest rate n times last year, but our stock market is still bullish. However, this series of national policies last year will always be gradually presented, but it will only take a time to accumulate.
The management level of the company is very critical, and the level, foresight, courage and charm of senior leaders directly affect the corporate culture of the whole company. Whether there is a good leadership team is the key to the healthy development of this enterprise. Imagine a group of friends, getting together, even if they have a little industry, how can they develop and grow? Now is the age of knowledge. There used to be many nouveau riche entrepreneurs, and now there will be, but I can say responsibly that there will be fewer and fewer or even disappear in the future. If you don't know advanced management knowledge, internal operation of enterprises and financial subjects, you don't have the quality of new excellent managers, so we can't trust their business ability. Investigating the leadership of an enterprise is very helpful for stock selection. A good leadership team is more trustworthy, with stable stock price and long-term growth potential.
(2) Technical analysis:
Technical analysis is very different because it needs strong data support. According to traditional experience, the laws summarized from past events are of great help to future judgments. Although I don't quite agree with this, because if we use the concept of the past to explain the future, time is changing and the situation is relatively changing. At most, it can only be used for reference, and it cannot be the standard for judging the future. Technical analysis method is more complicated because it needs the support of statistics and econometrics.
To put it bluntly, predicting the future with previous data experience, K-line chart, these can actually be classified as technical analysts. For example, we sometimes see people say negative line, positive line, cross star and so on, which are more or less related to the concept of technical analysis. There are many kinds of statements in this regard, and I don't want to repeat them here. You'd better buy a simple stock book, which may be more detailed.
Personally, I think technical analysis can be applied to short-term speculation and speculation, and the fundamentals are suitable for long-term value investment.
(3) About the legendary banker:
I believe many people think that there is a banker in the stock market, and the banker's opponent is small retail investors. I personally can't accept this idea. In small-cap stocks, small-cap stocks with a market value of billions or hundreds of millions are easily artificially hyped. If you blindly follow the so-called bookmaker, you may lose a lot. In this market, small retail investors always have less information than large institutions, and it is very untimely. When the so-called bookmakers have run away, you are still enjoying the pleasure brought by this short climax. The result is that all the profits are shattered in an instant. If it is good, it will end in cost, if it is not good, it will be deeply stuck. So don't blindly believe the news released by the "banker" or the same principle. Think with your own brain. If you want to make money and don't take the time to think about it, there is no such thing. Unless you buy a good fund, don't forget, because there are many restrictions in Public Offering of Fund and the threshold for private placement is sometimes very high, so you still need your own judgment in many cases.
Sometimes, our relatives and friends say that some stocks are good, this one and this one are good. So I bought it. This kind of thing is actually pure luck. First of all, the transmission of information is becoming more and more inaccurate and there is a great delay. When you hear about this, the dealer may have arranged a formation for you to drill. Moreover, how much to buy and how much to sell is subject to great market fluctuations. Don't think that bookmakers are gods, they are just people who have more money and know some financial knowledge than you. When the whole situation changes or an emergency happens, they will also lose money, even worse than you, because their money is basically raised and they are under great pressure from investors. Don't be superstitious about gambling companies. You may get benefits and candy once or twice, but you will definitely lose money. When you convert your average rate of return into one year, I'm afraid you will find that you haven't firmly grasped the high rate of return of stocks. Because frequent operations will make you lose time, energy, handling fees, stamp duty and so on. Wait, it's a little too often. Unless, the people you are very close to all work in securities companies or fund companies, you'd better not blindly listen to the news. Of course, it is illegal for relatives who give you information. If you don't pursue them, you will be punished. If you pursue them, you will touch the criminal law.
3. My personal suggestions:
(1) Never be blind.
However, most investors in China can't invest for a long time and choose short-term speculation. The economic and financial knowledge base of Chinese citizens is not as mature as that of western developed countries. They often listen to other people's news and adopt blind investment methods. At this time, some people make quick money and become more and more crazy. In fact, he is often the last loser. After all, when everyone is eulogizing the good market, the potential danger should come. If the old investors who have experienced the previous bear market should feel it, the investors who have experienced 530 should feel it, and the new investors who have experienced the adjustment of 1 1 should also feel it. The decline of the stock market is like a scourge, and there is no way to stop it. Every day, many people's mentality is depravity. In any case, nothing will happen before the 2008 Olympic Games. Yes, this idea may work for a while, but we can host several Olympic Games, so why should the Olympic Games be linked to the stock market? In fact, we all know that there is no particularly direct blood relationship between the two. Even if a large number of Olympic venues are built, only some enterprises will benefit, and Beijing will take the project. Throughout the long history, it is true that the securities markets of many countries will be more active before the Olympic Games. This is only historical data, and it cannot fully represent the future, nor can it fully represent China. Many people ignore that many countries have entered a long period of addiction after the Olympic Games.
I won't say much after listening to the news. After all, I expressed my meaning in the dealer's description.
Don't invest casually without going through your own brain, because if you don't understand, ask someone who does. I don't want you to ask whether this stock is good or not, but whether this enterprise has investment value.
(2) If you really don't understand, you can consider investing in funds.
Fund managers are relatively more knowledgeable and professional in the financial and economic fields (nonsense, unprofessional, make a P). Their advantages lie in their work experience, brilliant record and the level of their analysts. They can integrate a lot of money to invest, and the rate of return will not be too high.
But they are still people, not gods, and these auras on their heads will also become ultraviolet rays that burn them.
A. Rich work experience will lead to a rigid investment concept and will lose many bright spots;
B. Past records can't explain the problem at all, because what happened in the past can only show that you had great opportunities in the past, but now no one speaks well, and the old saying goes that heroes don't mention past courage.
C. My analysts, if the corporate culture is not good, I'm afraid they will want to quit a lot. No matter how talented a person is, it is impossible to dabble in every field. He has only dealt with the steel industry for a few years, and those who do energy care about their own affairs. They all have limitations;
D. the funds are huge, but they cannot be used casually. You can't smash it all in one venue. Isn't it shrimp if it's lost? The country does not allow children to be naughty. If you want to play with people's money, you must honestly allocate funds according to national policies, which may also miss some investment opportunities. Of course, the risk will be a little lower than at home. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. I heard that this is the Bible in the financial field. Personally, I don't quite agree. We'll talk about this later.
Well, I have said so many shortcomings because I want to tell some investors that the level of these investors is far less than that of a fund manager, so it is a good choice to be safe at least to trust people with higher strength than you.
I would like to remind you not to buy only one fund, because the fund is different from its own operation after all. At this time, it is necessary to invest in risk differentiation. Mixed, radical, stocks, bonds and the like, so you can earn less, but you don't have to lose badly. (what? The fund will also pay, of course, they will pay, they are not gods)
(3) It is better to break one finger than to hurt its ten fingers.
When you meet a good opportunity, don't pay attention to the idea of risk differentiation investment. The rest is a bit deceptive. If it is really a good opportunity, don't spare no effort to invest all your money under your debt capacity. Good investment opportunities are rare, but not without them. We need to explore them slowly. For example, if you play new shares this year (shake the number to buy the original shares and sell them when they go public), if you are strong enough, it will be1000-20 million. It is estimated that the return rate of new singles shares in 2008 will be 25%, which is risk-free. You may feel that you earn less, but there is no risk ~ ~ ~ If you put all this money into stocks, you will lose money.
(4) Having a plan for merger, acquisition and reorganization, and purchasing the shares of the merged and reorganized enterprise in advance. But this process is very long, and the information cannot be very accurate. If you know the exact news, don't miss this investment opportunity, which is the usual trick of many big investment banks. Of course, it is necessary to analyze whether the two (M&A and the acquired) have the strength to produce1+1>; The result of 2.
(5) It is absolutely necessary to have a good attitude, which has a considerable relationship with personal cultivation. Don't create happiness, don't create sadness, because these are all passing clouds, and will eventually be dust after decades. Of course, it is worth celebrating if you make a profit, but don't be insatiable. It is the essence of our traditional culture. That makes sense. Don't be too sad when you lose. With good capital operation and good investment philosophy, these losses are temporary, and good stocks are the first choice for permanent investment. ST plate, can not intervene, it is best not to intervene, see other people's investment to get rich returns, don't be jealous, because some money is not what we should earn. Think about it, if we were born in a rich family, a family of high officials, our lives might be completely different, but we didn't. So don't be jealous of others, after all, some money in the stock market can't be earned.
St. Wanjie, who was depressed and closed for nearly a year, was finally able to reorganize. In recent two daily limit (to 65438+2008 10/6), many people think wow, this opportunity to make money has been missed. But think about it, these junk people have been waiting for a whole year! ! ! I don't need to say how many investment opportunities I missed in the middle, which may not be worth it. Besides, if Wanjie's reorganization fails, their money will go up in smoke. Isn't that dangerous?
ST Jintai has created a historical myth, and many researchers are exploring its roots. Finally, after experiencing glory, the government stepped in, because this deformed form is rare in a hundred years. You and I are both mortal, so why pursue it?
Don't be greedy, be sure to sell at the highest point and buy at the lowest point. Unless you have excellent special functions, I personally think it is impossible. Don't eat fish heads and tails, the middle part is still delicious. Many people always say, alas, I sold it long ago, alas, I didn't buy it at that time. Isn't it just a greedy mentality at work?
China has a tradition of 5,000 years. In fact, Confucianism, inaction, the doctrine of the mean and so on can be used as a supplement to our personal cultivation. No matter what you look at and how you feel, everyone's knowledge level is the same. They are neither arrogant nor dry. This is the real gentleman.
(6) Set the investment quota reasonably.
1/3 spare money, 1/3 save it as a current reserve, 1/3 reinvest, and you will always win. If you lose money, don't be afraid to cut the meat. If you accidentally buy junk stocks, don't hesitate to set a stop loss point, for example, if it falls to 3-5%, you can sell it. Even if this junk stock goes up in the future, don't regret your decision, because you are likely to lose the game because of indecision. There are three stocks, which are very good, but they are overvalued now, but if you plan to invest for 10 years for a long time, these are good choices, of course, not asking you to buy them now. Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Vanke A, if any friends are interested in seeing if these enterprises meet the conditions of good stocks I just mentioned.
Finally, I want to say that the stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.