1. Reasons for the decline of thread futures. Following the collective rebound last week, the spot price of domestic steel fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with strong in the south and weak in the north. Affected by seasonal factors in the north, demand has entered a normal off-season, and prices have no motivation; At the end of the year, there was processing demand in the south, the price dropped sharply in the early stage of superposition, and some downstream orders were overstocked, which actively supported the terminal procurement of recycling prices; However, considering that the end of the year is approaching, the enterprise's mood is not high, and the operation is more cautious. This week, the national thread output was 2772 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 50,400 tons from the previous month; Hot rolled 2,806,300 tons, a decrease of 1 1.29 tons; The total output of five kinds of steel products was 8,904,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 66,400 tons. The total inventory of threads decreased by 655,200 tons, the inventory of hot rolling decreased by 35,300 tons, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 878,500 tons. Recently, the profits of steel enterprises have improved, and the pace of steel mills' resumption of work has accelerated. The output of building materials has increased significantly this week, especially in East China. In addition to the previous continuous maintenance of blast furnace, the medium plate plant has a new maintenance plan recently, resulting in a continuous decline in supply.
2. China's overall demand for thread futures. The apparent demand for threads in China was 3,426,200 tons, an increase of 244,800 tons from the previous month; The apparent demand for hot rolling was 284 1.600 tons, a decrease of 98,800 tons from the previous month; The apparent demand for five kinds of steel products was 9,782,800 tons, an increase of 238,600 tons over the previous week. The average weekly turnover of 237 building materials dealers nationwide was184,900 tons, an increase of 1700 tons from the previous month. Recently, the apparent demand for rebar in China is increasing instead of decreasing. With the marginal relaxation of real estate control policies, it is expected that demand will continue to rise. In addition, due to the sharp drop in the previous price, some downstream orders were overstocked, and there was a demand for snapping up in the south at the end of the year, and some terminal purchasing enthusiasm also rebounded. Up. Generally speaking, near the end of the year, the market and terminal funds are generally tight, the speculative demand of merchants is limited, and the off-season effect of the market is still obvious.
3. China is a big producer of rebar. Due to the large investment in fixed assets, rebar is basically used to meet domestic demand, and the export volume is small. In recent years, with the development of infrastructure construction in China, the annual output of rebar has maintained a growth rate of more than 16.6%. The annual output increased from 37.35 million tons in 20001year to10/0.37 million tons in 2007, an increase of 64.02 million tons, an increase of171.4% compared with 20001. It is estimated that the output in 2008 will be 97.97 million tons. Among the 22 steel products classified by varieties, rebar accounts for the largest proportion of steel products, which decreased from 23.8% in 200/kloc-0 to 15.9% in 2007, a decrease of 7.9%. Percentage points; The year with the largest proportion was 2003, accounting for 25%, accounting for a quarter of the total steel. Steel bar imports less, exports more, and grows rapidly year by year. However, the proportion of net export in steel bar output is very low.