2. The short-term fluctuation of pig price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand, the price of pigs will fall, and vice versa. For example, winter consumption in southern provinces of China is relatively concentrated: the weather is cool, consumption is high, and a large amount of pork is consumed in a short period of time, such as making bacon and sausages. Demand exceeds supply, and pig prices rise.
3.2065438+00 The price of pigs dropped rapidly in June. The reason was that the stock of fat pigs was sufficient, and farmers were reluctant to sell them in winter to the day before, and concentrated selling near the Spring Festival, which led to oversupply and the price plummeted. It was also related to the possible epidemic situation in some areas. In fact, the psychological endurance of farmers often has a great influence on the change of pig prices: most farmers sell down but not up (reflected in selling fat pigs: pig prices want to wait in the upward trend to see if they can sell higher prices; Once the price of pigs falls, they are anxious to sell, and everyone will concentrate on selling, and the price will fall faster); Buy up and don't buy down (reflected in raising pigs and flowers outdoors, the price of pigs rises, the more I want to buy, thinking that others dare to raise them, I dare to raise them, but I don't know that the pig flowers bought by others are cheaper than my own).
4.20 10 pig price (humble opinion): the overall price level is the same as that in 2009, or slightly higher, and the profit level is reasonable!
In fact, pig industry is an industry with long cycle, large investment, high risk and relatively low profit. The development trend of pig industry is intensification, standardization and industrialization, and the threshold for entering this industry will be further improved, requiring more relevant resources. This is what we often say about shuffling the pig industry. Based on this, the short-term forecast of pig prices by pig farmers is not of great substantive significance. Pig farmers who make a living by gambling will soon quit this industry, and it is difficult to reproduce the profiteering market from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008. What we can do, should do, and must do is to constantly improve our pig raising level, select varieties, do a good job in feeding management, select feed, do a good job in epidemic prevention and health care, improve the pig raising environment, and persist in it for a long time, so as to win profits and win development in the industry reform.