It is indispensable and irreplaceable, and the limited reserves and output of crude oil make the price of crude oil very sensitive to the factors affecting supply and demand, and it fluctuates greatly.

2. Supply and demand

The imbalance of crude oil supply and demand structure makes the relationship between crude oil supply and demand tend to be tense. Every link from reserve, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important, and the change of factors in any link will affect the fluctuation of crude oil price.

3. Geopolitics

Uncertainties such as wars, terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and other emergencies have seriously affected or even influenced the trend of oil prices.

On March 28th, 2003, the price of oil futures in new york Stock Exchange reached $39.99/barrel, up 60% from $25/barrel at the end of last year.

In June 2008, Israel threatened to attack Iran, and the spot contract price of crude oil futures reached a record high 139.438+02 USD/barrel. The increase of 10.75 USD/barrel and the 8% increase of contract futures price on that day are the biggest one-day increase in the history of crude oil futures market.

4. Increase or decrease of crude oil inventory

During the economic recession, the decline of crude oil inventory has little supporting effect on oil prices, while the increase of crude oil inventory has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; In the stage of economic recovery and prosperity, the increase of crude oil inventory has a stabilizing effect on oil prices, but the decline of crude oil inventory will greatly support the rise of oil prices.

5. Output of oil-producing countries

When the economy declines, the demand for crude oil decreases and the price falls, it is often difficult for oil-producing countries to reduce production, and increasing production will accelerate the price drop; However, when the economy recovers, the demand for crude oil increases and the oil price rises, increasing production has limited effect on stabilizing the oil price rise, while reducing production will obviously aggravate the price rise.

6. Speculative funds

Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%.

7.dollars

The appreciation and depreciation of the dollar exchange rate will directly affect the fluctuation of oil prices.