The reason why domestic oil prices can return to the "5 yuan era" is that international crude oil has been "cheap" to the point where even water is inferior. For example, on March 9th, global oil prices suffered an "epic" plunge, Brent crude oil futures fell by 3 1.5%, and the price per barrel was only 3 1.02 USD, the highest since the outbreak of the Gulf War in seven years. According to the forecast of relevant institutions, the average daily increase of global oil demand will decrease by 365,000 barrels to 825,000 barrels in 2020, which is the lowest increase since 20 10. If the COVID-19 epidemic is not effectively controlled, the global demand for crude oil will only decrease rather than increase in 2020, and the price will hardly fluctuate.
If the oil price really stays low for a long time, what impact will it have on all walks of life in China? Especially in the new energy automobile industry supported by the state, is the market worse under the downward trend of oil prices?
Low oil prices embarrass new energy vehicles.
Does oil price affect consumers' purchase of new energy? If there is no impact, it is definitely not objective, because some people choose new energy vehicles mainly to save vehicle costs. After all, new energy vehicles don't burn oil when charging. As long as they can save fuel, they can save a lot of money.
We can simply calculate an account. Previously, the price of No.92 gasoline was about 6.32 yuan, the average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers was 8 L, and the total operating cost per kilometer was about 0.5 yuan. Now that the price of No.92 gasoline has dropped to around 5.5 yuan, the operating cost per kilometer will drop to around 0.4 yuan. For pure electric vehicles, based on the power consumption calculation of ternary lithium battery 1.4kWh which is widely used at present, the cost per 100 kilometers for household slow charging is about 0. 1.5 ~ 0.2 yuan, and if it is fast charging, it may be around 0.3 yuan. It can be seen that with the continuous downward adjustment of oil prices, the gap between the two vehicles in operating costs will be further narrowed.
The narrowing of the cost gap is simply bad news for pure electric vehicles. A study by the University of Chicago and Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that if the international oil price exceeds $350/barrel, gasoline vehicles will be completely eliminated by electric vehicles. If the oil price only stays at $50/barrel, electric vehicles will struggle until a qualitative breakthrough is made in battery technology. The current price of crude oil is $30/barrel.
I dare not arbitrarily say that low oil prices will definitely put electric vehicles in trouble, but it will certainly lead investors to worry about the demand for new energy vehicles. Affected by the fall in oil prices, the share prices of some new energy auto companies have also fallen sharply. On March 9th, the closing prices of Tesla and Weilai fell by more than 13.73% and 14.93% respectively, while Tesla also adjusted from the highest $968.99 to around $600, with a cumulative decline of 25.85%, and the company's total market value shrank by nearly $33.8 billion. In addition, the battery supplier Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also experienced a 7.02% plunge, with a total market value loss of more than 22.2 billion yuan.
Affected by the epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles are not optimistic. According to the production and sales data of passenger cars released by the Passenger Car Federation in February, the domestic sales volume of new energy passenger cars in February was 1.4 million, down 69.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume in February was 56,000, down 6 1.4% year-on-year. On the one hand, the subsidies and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen sharply, on the other hand, the drop in oil prices has made the cost of fuel vehicles more attractive. This situation is unfavorable to the new energy industry.
Oil prices determine the life and death of electric vehicles, but China is an exception.
Seeing this, do you think the new energy automobile industry in China should be further "cooled down" or even "cooled down"? Don't worry, look at some common sense related to the China market before making a judgment.
First of all, domestic refined oil prices are regulated by "maximum price" and "minimum price". The upper limit of regulation is $0/30 per barrel, and the lower limit is $40 per barrel. In other words, no matter how much the international oil price falls, as long as it is within the range of 40 dollars, the domestic oil price will not be adjusted again, which means that the advantage of new energy vehicles in car cost will not be reduced.
In addition, the development of new energy vehicles is very important to the overall development of China automobile industry. On the one hand, the development of new energy vehicles will help ease the energy pressure and reduce China's dependence on foreign countries. On the other hand, the development of new energy vehicles will help to promote the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, and provide great new development opportunities for China. Therefore, the government will introduce more preferential policies to stabilize or even improve the overall sales of new energy vehicles.
Therefore, neither consumers nor car companies need to worry about the impact of oil prices on the development of new energy vehicles. For car companies, the most important thing now is to upgrade the technology of new energy vehicles faster and make products more competitive. This year's new cars are really worth looking forward to, such as Volkswagen ID.3, BMW ix3, domestic Model3 long-life rear-drive version, and new SUVAionV of GAC New Energy. These new cars are as attractive as traditional fuel cars. In addition, after years of development, the endurance of new energy vehicles has also made great progress, and the cruising range is close to the level of half a tank of oil for ordinary cars, like NEDC of Tucki P7? Working condition endurance even reached? 709? Kilometers
The downward adjustment of oil price can indeed reduce the car cost of traditional fuel owners, but this does not mean that the domestic new energy vehicle market will fall into a "dilemma". Next, with the support of various favorable domestic policies and the continuous breakthrough in the ceiling of new energy vehicle technology, we can see a better prospect of new energy in China.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.