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First of all, the pilot of securities lending business will accelerate the structural differentiation of investors, and the power of institutional investors in the market will become increasingly strong. The birth of stock index futures has given institutional investors a short weapon and changed the living environment of small and medium-sized investors in the A-share market. The introduction of securities lending has once again added short-selling tools to institutional investors, making it more difficult for small and medium-sized investors to make money. With the refinancing business, institutional investors can not only make money by idling the underlying securities, but also short stock index futures while shorting individual stocks, avoid market risks through diversified trading strategies and earn excess returns. The increase of securities lending, stock index futures and short-selling weapons has brought double profit opportunities to institutional investors, but it has completely subverted the A-share profit model that small and medium-sized investors are used to and rely on the stock market to make profits. Retail investors will gradually be marginalized in the era of short selling, and balanced institutional investors will become the main investors in the stock market. The A-share market is expected to gradually realize the transformation from the retail era to the institutional era.
Secondly, the pilot of securities lending business will accelerate the change of investors' investment concept. Speculation is the biggest feature of investors in the A-share market, which even makes the A-share market win the reputation of "casino". Although the prevalence of speculation has the immaturity of investors and the market itself, it is also closely related to the lack of short-selling mechanism of individual stocks. In the absence of short-selling mechanisms such as whitewashing statements and manipulating performance, investors who follow suit can still get returns through the wealth effect in the stock price rise, thus strengthening the concept of speculation. After the launch of securities lending business, more and more companies like Muddy Waters will make a living by investigating and digging up the problems of listed companies. Overvalued stocks will attract short sellers, and the valuation of listed companies is expected to become reasonable. Once there is a money-making effect of securities lending, short selling will be highly sought after, and short-selling thinking will subvert the deep-rooted long-term thinking in the A-share market, thus forcing investors to change their investment philosophy. Although this process will not happen overnight, the development trend is irreversible.
Thirdly, the pilot of securities lending will also bring about the return of the value of the underlying securities, which will lead to the adjustment of the stock price structure in the long run. How big is the A-share price bubble? According to an expert not long ago, the A-share market "even if it falls above 1000, more than 70% of the stocks still have no investment value", which shows that the adjustment of A-share price structure has a long way to go. However, in the absence of short-selling mechanism for individual stocks, even if the stock price is overvalued, it is difficult to squeeze out the bubble. After the pilot of securities lending business, there is no need to worry about chips when shorting individual stocks, and the long and short power of the underlying securities will undergo fundamental changes. Although the underlying securities initially entered the pilot only covered 90 large-cap blue-chip stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets (50 in Shanghai and 40 in Shenzhen), the number of securities companies participating in the pilot lending business, the number of underlying securities and the number of loanable securities are limited, and the era of large-scale and all-round short selling of individual stocks has not yet arrived. However, the establishment of the short-selling mechanism of individual stocks has taken a far-reaching step after all. I believe that after accumulating experience and successfully piloting, the number of stock targets and securities lending targets will expand and the market will become increasingly active; The expansion of underlying securities and securities lending targets will inevitably greatly facilitate investors to short individual stocks, thus accelerating the adjustment of A-share price structure in the continuous improvement of short-selling mechanism. Among them, large-cap blue-chip stocks with relatively balanced institutional strength, reasonable valuation and stable performance have experienced the baptism of margin financing and securities lending in recent years, and their performance will be relatively stable, and the possibility of being shorted by securities lending is very small, which is why blue-chip stocks were selected as the underlying securities for refinancing and securities lending at the initial stage of the pilot; However, once some small-cap stocks with higher valuation in GEM and SME board can be refinanced, their share prices will face greater adjustment pressure, although the funds diverted from the market will still speculate on these stocks before they become the underlying securities for refinancing.
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The launch of the pilot business of margin trading will objectively increase the sources of securities for margin trading, and the market is worried that it will enlarge the scale of short selling. In this regard, relevant experts said that refinancing is only a supporting system to improve the market trading mechanism, and it is still in its infancy, and its role is generally neutral.
Experts believe that the pilot of margin trading is another important measure to improve China's margin trading system. Its main purpose is to improve the mechanism, which is of great significance to further improve the resource allocation ability and market efficiency of the securities market, meet the needs of investors for diversified investment and risk management, strengthen the concept of long-term investment and value investment in the securities market, and enhance the income, innovation ability and risk management ability of securities companies.
According to the calculation of relevant experts, based on 90 underlying stocks, in the case of market neutrality, the transaction amount of securities lending is 65.438+0.24 billion shares, and the turnover is about 65.438+0.65438+0.90 billion yuan. The daily average sales volume of new securities lending accounts for about 7% of the daily average sales volume of securities lending. Therefore, it may cause the market to fall in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the stock market will not fall sharply because of the introduction of refinancing.
When the short-term interest chain is established, the "black swan" incident will multiply.
Three types of institutions are temporarily unable to lend securities.
20 10, margin trading and stock index futures were launched one after another, and the profit model of A-share market began to change. Some insiders believe that stock index futures are only aimed at the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, so the introduction of stock index futures can only be called a prelude to short selling at best, while the introduction of margin financing and securities lending can be called the establishment of a-share "short selling mechanism".
However, people in the industry also said that from 20 10 to 20 12, although the number of securities firms engaged in the two financing businesses in the A-share market has increased exponentially, the balance of margin financing and securities lending in the market has risen to10 billion yuan, but the relative imbalance of the two financing businesses is an indisputable fact, which is mainly reflected in the following: under the previous rules of the game, securities companies can only So the first two financial services are still not perfect.
On August 30, 20 12, the pilot of refinancing business was launched, but at that time, considering the market affordability, the pilot of refinancing was launched first; After waiting for half a year, on February 22, 20 13, the securities company announced that it would start the pilot business of margin financing and securities lending on February 28. At the beginning of the pilot, the target of securities lending was 90 stocks (excluding ETF funds), including 50 in Shanghai and 40 in Shenzhen. The total circulating market value is 9.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 50% of the total circulating market value of A shares.
According to the pilot rules of margin financing and securities lending business, only institutional shareholders of listed companies are eligible to lend securities, and securities held by fund companies, insurance companies and state-owned institutional shareholders of listed companies cannot be lent.
Will promote the brokerage research report to remind risks.
Among the 90 stocks that were transferred for securities lending in the initial stage of the pilot project, 50 underlying stocks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange are all constituents of the SSE 50 Index, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, WISCO, Huaxia Bank, China Petrochemical and China Southern Airlines. The 40 underlying stocks in Shenzhen are constituent stocks of Shenzhen Component Index, including Ping An Bank, Vanke A, China Merchants Property, ZTE, OCT A and so on.
Market participants believe that the above 90 securities lending targets are basically large blue-chip stocks with good liquidity in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. A financial engineer of a securities firm said that once the valuation level of the above-mentioned blue-chip stocks is not recognized by the market at the initial stage of the securities lending business, it is likely to be sold by securities lending, thus promoting the rational return of the valuation level of these companies.
At the same time, another insider said that although the initial target of refinancing business is 90 blue-chip stocks in the two cities, with the passage of time, the stocks and distribution industries involved in securities lending will be more extensive, so the short-selling mechanism of A-share listed companies will be more prominent.
It is worth noting that the "black swan" incidents in the A-share market occurred frequently before, which had great influence, such as the incident of alcoholic liquor plasticizer, the incident of Shuanghui Clenbuterol, the incident of Illidan melamine and the incident of Chongqing beer vaccine. , has had a significant impact on the stock price of related stocks. With the expansion of securities lending targets, the number of "black swan" incidents in the A-share market may double now.
The aforementioned financial engineer said that, on the one hand, in addition to tapping the investment value of the company, once the company is found to have financial and governance risks, institutional investors may dig them out and become short weights. At the same time, the relevant brokerage reports may also prompt risks more objectively, rather than blindly singing more.