In the past three years, pigs have experienced a lot of changes. First, they skyrocketed from 5 or 6 yuan to more than 20 yuan, and then dropped from more than 20 yuan to the current price of about 7.5 yuan. , especially in late June this year, it fell to the lowest level of over 6 yuan. The sudden plunge in pig prices caught pig farmers off guard, and many pig farmers suffered heavy losses, which greatly affected the enthusiasm of pig farmers.

In order to save pig prices, after the pig-to-grain ratio fell below 5:1 in June, superiors opened the purchase and storage channel for reserve meat, first 20,000 tons, then 13,000 tons, and then another The purchase and storage of 20,000 tons and 53,000 tons has once again raised the price of pigs to about 8 yuan. However, in the context of production capacity recovery and sluggish consumption, pig prices are still easy to fall but difficult to rise. Throughout July and early August, pig prices have been declining.

However, in the past month, the price of pork has rebounded. So among the representative stocks in the pork sector, who is the leader in the turning point of this wave of pig cycle? Before talking about individual stocks in detail, let me first tell you about our analysis logic, which is the criterion for judging the stage of the market, sector, and individual stocks.

Whether it is the market, sector or individual stock, they can be divided into four stages: energy accumulation period, climbing period, fatigue period and downhill period.

To measure the stage of price, the first thing we need to look at is the moving average.

Here, we use the 30 moving average.

When the 30-day moving average changes from falling to flattening, this is the first sign that it has entered a period of energy accumulation, which reminds us that we can pay attention. Because the main force in the bottom stage often accumulates funds quietly, the price fluctuations at this stage are relatively stable and there is a sense of trend brewing, and the overall trading volume shows a shrinking state. This stage is the period of energy accumulation and the stage of selecting good stocks.

When the price breaks through an important resistance level upwards and the moving average changes from flat to upward, then this time, it means that it has entered a climbing period. At this stage, holding is the main focus.

When the moving average changes from rising to flat again, accompanied by violent fluctuations in price and trading volume, this is a period of fatigue. It reminds the main force to ship. This stage is also the stage of profit taking.

When the price falls below an important support level and the moving average begins to turn from flat to downward, it is a reminder that the price is entering a downhill period. What we have to do at this time is to hold our hands, stay on the sidelines, and wait for the price to enter a new period of momentum again.

First of all, let’s take a look at New Hope.

New Hope has started a long downward path since the third quarter of last year. The decline even far exceeded the decline in pig prices.

It fell from above 40 yuan in September last year to around 10 yuan, the lowest this year.

This is no longer a cut in the waist, but a cut in the knee. The maximum drop exceeded 70%.

However, judging from the recent trend, there have been some changes.

First of all, the price has begun to cross the moving average, and the decline in the moving average has also begun to slow down.

Secondly, from the perspective of trading volume, the trading volume near 10 yuan has been significantly enlarged.

From the current point of view, although it has not yet broken away from the big framework of the downhill period, there are already signs of stage transition. But there may still be recurrences in the future.

Looking at Dabeinong again,

Dabeinong’s trend is actually much better than that of New Hope.

First of all, from the perspective of the decline, the decline of Dabeinong is much smaller than that of New Hope.

Secondly, from a trend perspective, New Hope is still in a downward trend. However, Dabeinong has broken through the upper box in the chart in the past week. It has been in a sideways consolidation period for more than half a year and has begun to enter a climbing period.

However, it is not all smooth sailing above Dabeinong. The previous high point near 12 yuan is a relatively obvious early resistance area.

Next, let’s look at the big brother in the pig industry, Muyuan Shares.

Muyuan Shares’ current 30-week moving average is downward, and the price also runs below the moving average most of the time. It is currently a downhill period.

Its trend is somewhat similar to that of New Hope. It also experienced a sharp decline and then increased its volume during the rebound. But the decline is far smaller than New Hope.

Finally, let’s look at the big pig farmer on the GEM, Wen’s Stock.

The current trend of Wen’s Stock is relatively classic, and it is a classic V-shaped reversal trend.

That is, after the price goes through the declining stage, it does not form a bottom stage or the bottom stage is small and directly rises.

After this long downhill period, Wen's shares have slowly climbed up from the bottom near 12 yuan.

From the current point of view, the 30-week moving average has shown signs of turning upward, and the price has also closed above the 30-week moving average for several consecutive weeks, which is identified as a climbing period.

Judging from the trends in the past two years, although New Hope and Muyuan shares have shown signs of stage transition, they are still within the framework of a downhill period; although Wen's shares have entered a climb However, due to the previous sharp decline, there were many hold-up orders above. Judging from the current trend, Dabeinong is already in a climbing period, and the resistance above is relatively small. Judging from the increase, it is also the one with the largest increase in the past two years among the four, and the trend is stronger.

In order to enable my country's pig breeding industry to develop smoothly now and in the future, six departments, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the National Development and Reform Commission, recently issued a joint statement, giving With the future development direction of my country's pig breeding industry, my country's pig industry is bound to undergo major changes. What impact will these changes have on the free-range farmers who occupy the main body of the pig industry?

1. Policy support

1. All localities should arrange breeding land reasonably, and large-scale breeding households should not be demolished in violation of laws and regulations. Pig loans should be stabilized and loans should not be withdrawn, restricted or cut off at will. 2. Vigorously develop policy-based pig insurance; 3. Do not arbitrarily expand areas where breeding is prohibited and eliminate farmers.

Impact on free-range farmers:

Although the pig farm is required not to be demolished illegally, the pig farm is required to be a large-scale pig farm, and the minimum requirements for large-scale pig farms in my country are The target is to produce more than 500 fattened pigs per year, but now there are a large number of pig farms in rural areas that do not meet the requirement. The implication is that these pig farms that have not reached the scale target can be dismantled.

Although it is required to stabilize loans and not withdraw or restrict loans, the vast majority of rural free-range farmers cannot meet bank loan conditions, and they basically have no loans. Therefore, this policy is proposed in conjunction with free-range farmers. It basically doesn't matter if you raise a household.

Policy insurance for pigs is a good thing for rural free-range farmers. What free-range farmers lack is risk resistance. Once serious diseases such as African Fever occur in pig farms, heavy losses will be incurred. It is difficult to turn around during the current downturn. With policy insurance, free-range farmers can insure their pig herds, so that even if African swine fever occurs in their herds, losses can be kept to a minimum and there is a possibility of subsequent recovery.

It is good news for free-range pig farmers to not arbitrarily expand the no-breeding zone and clear out pig farmers. The high pressure on environmental protection since 2016 has forced many pig farmers to stop raising pigs. Although the production capacity in 2019 has increased significantly, In order to restore production capacity after the decline, various regions have relaxed their environmental protection requirements. However, after production capacity resumed this year, breeding and environmental protection work in various regions resumed. The first to be harmed were the free-range farmers. With this policy, pig farmers built As long as the pig farm is in a reasonable area, it will not be easily cleared, which is a reassurance for the free-range farmers.

2. Counter-cyclical regulation mechanism

Stabilize the number of breeding sows in my country at 43 million for the whole year, and the minimum number cannot be less than 40 million. If the monthly change exceeds 50% If the monthly decrease exceeds 10% compared with the same period last year or the monthly loss exceeds 3 consecutive months, relief and subsidy measures must be initiated in all regions.

Impact on free-range farmers:

This not only affects free-range farmers, but also has epoch-making significance for the entire pig industry. Previously, the pig industry lacked effective data. According to the guidance, when the price of pigs rises, there will be a rush to replenish the pens, and when the price of pigs falls, there will be a rush to eliminate them. This has caused the price of pigs in my country to rise and fall sharply, which is very detrimental to the stable production and supply of pork in our country. With reasonable data guidance, both large-scale pig farms and free-range pig farmers can reasonably arrange pig production based on accurate data. Pens will be replenished when they need to be replenished and eliminated when it is time to eliminate them, so as to stabilize production capacity within a reasonable range. The prices of raw pigs and pork can also be stabilized within a reasonable range. Farmers can make money, and consumers do not need to eat high-priced pork, killing two birds with one stone.

3. Strengthen the management of large-scale pig farms

It is required that large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 500 pigs be included in the registration. The pig farms after registration shall not be easily dismantled. If it is really necessary For demolition, reasonable financial compensation needs to be given.

Impact on free-range farmers:

This article is aimed at large-scale pig farms, which can be regarded as a reassurance for large-scale pig farms. Pig farms with reasonable procedures will not No need to live on tenterhooks anymore. However, it is not friendly to free-range farmers. If the free-range farmers fail to meet the requirements, they will not be able to register, and they will still face the risk of being demolished at any time. Moreover, after the stabilization of large-scale pig farms, my country's pig prices will also enter a relatively stable state, and independent farmers who make money by taking advantage of the rise and fall of the market will lose the opportunity to speculate.

4. Establish a market early warning and disease prevention and control mechanism

Relevant departments are required to strengthen data collection and release so that pig farmers can obtain real and effective information as soon as possible. The next step is to promote the zoning prevention and control of major animal diseases.

Impact on free-range farmers:

These two points are good and bad for free-range farmers. The good thing is that with effective data, we can decide whether to eliminate or replenish livestock according to the situation. pen, effectively respond to changes in the pig cycle, shorten the loss period and extend the profit period. ASF is still one of the biggest threats faced by large and small pig farms at present. Regional prevention and control at the national level can help stabilize the disease in various regions. This makes disease prevention and control simpler for free-range farmers who lack effective biosecurity methods.

The disadvantage is that large-scale pig farms have a stronger ability to control the breeding scale than free-range pig farmers. In the future, they will compete for production performance, and free-range pig farmers have a disadvantage in this area. After the regional prevention and control of major diseases, pigs will be mainly slaughtered locally, and slaughterhouses will have more say, making it more difficult for pig prices to rise.

5. Coordinated development of large and small pig farms

Previously, pig breeding in our country has been developing in the direction of groupization and scale. This document clarified the status of independent farmers. All large-scale pig farms are equal, and it is required to promote the coordinated development of large and small pig farms, free-range households and large-scale pig farms.

Impact on free-range pig farmers:

If free-range pig farmers can be promoted to the same status as large-scale pig farms, they will be given financial and technical support. The development of farmers is of great significance. After all, what farmers lack is funds and technology. With help, they can develop better.

Although free-range farmers play an important role in my country's pig breeding, not only the superiors, but also the free-range farmers themselves may not know where they will go. In fact, the existence of free-range pig farmers in rural areas not only solves the employment problems of many farmers, but also helps to alleviate poverty in some poor areas. It can also reduce the problem of manure treatment in large-scale pig farms. Free-range farmers were indispensable before and now. Yes, the future is also indispensable. From this joint statement of the six departments, we can also find that some policies are also tilting towards free-range farmers. With the formalization of free-range farmers, my country's pig breeding will definitely move towards a better future. direction of development.