In addition, oil prices are inseparable from national economic development. According to the data released by IMF, for every increase in crude oil price of 10%, the global GDP will decrease by 0. 10% ~ 0. 15%[47]. In 2005, the international crude oil price increased by 42. 1% compared with 2004, and the world economy slowed down by 0.8%[48]. Thus, the fluctuation of oil price will affect the country's economic development and the value of strategic oil and gas reserves. Another important concern is the price trend of the world oil market, which will affect the economic security of China's oil imports.
1. Analysis of price changes in the international oil market
In the past 30 years, the price changes in the world oil and gas market fluctuated greatly, showing an overall upward trend. Since 1980, the transaction price in the international oil market has shown an overall upward trend, but it also has obvious other characteristics.
First, the oil transaction prices vary greatly from place to place, but they are also geographically representative. According to the data published in the World Energy Report of BP Company in 20 10, there are four representative world oil trading prices, namely Dubai, Brandert, Focas and West Texas Intermediate (W T I). Representing the oil transaction prices in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and America respectively. Basically, the former has the lowest oil transaction price, while the price in West Texas is higher. However, after 2005, Focas replaced the high oil price position, and West Texas replaced the low price position at 20 1 1 and 20 12 (Figure 6-3). This is related to the oil demand situation and oil quality level in this area. After 2007, affected by the US financial crisis, the global oil trading spread dropped from 7.09 USD/barrel (in 2008) to 65,438 USD +0.96 USD/barrel (in 2009). At the same time, we should also see the development and utilization of shale gas in America. This kind of oil resource substitute has a very obvious influence on its price.
Fig. 6-3 1980-20 10 world oil transaction price trend chart (data source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 20 13 June).
Secondly, the price difference of oil transactions in different regions is increasing, which shows that the price difference has a certain relationship with the price level. The average price difference between 1980 and 1989 was 2. 10 USD/barrel, and the average price difference between 1990 and 1999 was 3.09 USD/barrel, which increased to 4.9/kloc from 2000 to 2009. Using the oil transaction price data of Dubai, Brent, Focas and WTI from 1980 to 201,we can calculate the annual oil transaction price range (Figure 6-4), and we can also see the regional differences of world oil prices.
Fig. 6-4 1980-20 10 shows the changing trend of world oil trading price range.
Third, the world oil price reached an all-time high of 147 USD/barrel in 2008. Although Europe and the United States have been affected by the financial crisis since 2007, economic development has shown negative growth and energy consumption has declined, but the focus of economic development has shifted from the west to the east. There is no doubt that the economic development of China and India during this period has played an important role in promoting the economic development of the whole world, which has also brought about an increase in oil demand, and the increase in oil usage has shifted from the west to Asia. The growth of total world oil demand remained basically unchanged, which led to the decline of oil prices in this period beyond estimation.
Ricardo strategic consulting company pointed out in the research report published on 20 1 1 that the main factors affecting oil prices in the world market are supply factors and demand factors. Including OPEC's capacity and output distribution policy and oil companies' speculation in the oil futures market [49].
2. Analysis of the relationship between China's oil imports and international oil prices.
The most direct way that the fluctuation of world oil transaction price affects China is the quantity of oil resources imported by China (Table 6-6).
Table 6-6 China Oil Import and Oil Price Trend
Data sources: China land and resources comprehensive statistical annual report 1990—2008, China customs statistical yearbook 2008-20 13, China oil network, BP World Energy Statistical Review 20 13.
The relationship between oil production and consumption demand in China has been unbalanced since 1993, so we have to rely on oil imports to make up the difference. Therefore, from 1994 to 20 12, the data in table 6-6 show that with the rapid increase of China's annual demand, the amount of oil imported from abroad increases year by year. Compared with 1994, 1996 increased by nearly 7 times, while in 2004 it increased by more than 60 times. Since 2000, the annual import volume of China has increased faster than that of 1990s, especially after 2008 (Figure 6-5). From 5. 1294× 108 barrels in 2000 to110/09×108 barrels in 2007, it increased by1in eight years. The change of China's oil import has three obvious growth steps, in 2000, 2004 and 2008 respectively (Figure 6-5). China has such a strong demand for oil imports, so the relationship between international oil prices and China is worth studying.
Fig. 6-5 China's oil import and international oil price trend (data source: BP World Energy Statistics Review on June 20 13).
West Texas and Brent prices are the representative regions with relatively high world oil transaction prices. Taking this as a representative, it compares with the overall trend of China's oil import. It can be seen from this (Figure 6-4) that the general trend is that the world oil price continues to rise and China's oil imports continue to increase. However, from 2000 to 2002, with the decrease of Brent oil price, China's oil imports decreased; In 2009, affected by the world financial crisis, world oil prices fell, but China's oil imports have been increasing rapidly. This may be related to the completion of infrastructure construction of China's strategic petroleum reserve base and the oil injection period. The changing trend of China's oil imports and the representative prices of Dubai and Focas, where the world oil prices are relatively low, are basically the same as before.
From the comparison between China's oil import price and the international oil market price trend, from 2000 to 2003, the average price of imported oil in China was basically the same as the highest international oil price, and then the problem was alleviated (Table 6-7 and Figure 6-6). But this average price is obtained by averaging the imports of crude oil of different qualities. If we import more crude oil with low quality and low price, the average price will come down. Therefore, this does not mean that China's crude oil imports have completely seized the opportunity of the lowest price in the international crude oil market, but this tendency already exists.
Table 6-7 Average Oil Import Price and China Oil Price Trend Unit: USD/barrel
sequential
Source: China Land and Resources Yearbook 2001-2009; China Customs Statistical Yearbook 2009-2013; BP World Energy Statistical Review June 3, 2065.
Note: The average purchase price is calculated according to the import volume and amount.
Figure 6-6 Comparison between the average price of crude oil imported from China and the international oil price (data sources: China Land and Resources Yearbook 200 1-2009, China Customs Statistical Yearbook 2009-20 13, BP World Energy Statistical Review 20 13).
From the above analysis, it can be seen that with the increase of China's oil imports, the international oil price will rise, which is of course in line with the laws of market economy. This phenomenon can be understood from two aspects: first, as long as China's oil import demand increases, the international market will raise prices; On the other hand, it can be considered that China's oil demand has had an impact on international oil prices. The former is a threat to China's economic development and its position in the international oil market, while the latter shows that it has the opportunity to influence the market. Therefore, measures should be taken to seize this opportunity, promote the country's economic development and enhance its international reputation.