Many people saw the discussion in the group and commented that the prediction that BUCK would rise to 150 yuan/chip was too bold. This article will tell you how conservative this prediction is.
If BUCK can rise to 150 yuan in five cycles, how much should it rise in each cycle?
(Each production reduction is called a cycle, and the next five cycles will take about two years. )
As we all know, Barker's supply will be halved when it finally grows to a certain height, and every time it is halved, the balance between supply and demand will be broken, supply will become scarce, while demand will continue to increase, so the price of money will skyrocket.
If BUCK can rise to 150 yuan after five cycles, how many times does it need to rise each cycle?
In the functional model, "linear growth" (actually not linear in mathematics) thinks that the growth multiple of each cycle is the same:
The results are as follows:
If it is linear growth, it only needs to rise to 5 times per cycle. In the next production reduction cycle, the step-down price is 0.25 yuan; The prices of Barker in the next four production reduction cycles are 1.25 yuan, 6.25 yuan, 3 1.25 yuan and 156.25 yuan respectively. . .
Each cycle is 5 times, and the first 3-day cycle is increased by 3 times. Does anyone else think this vision is great? Actually, it's really conservative!
Why can it rise to 150 yuan in five cycles, people will think it is radical; Do people think it is conservative to increase five times every cycle? Because people often underestimate the power of compound interest.
Coin hoarding: How much do we need to hoard to achieve wealth freedom?
The threshold of wealth freedom in first-tier cities is 290 million (please Baidu yourself). Here, we will relax the requirements and lower the threshold to a small goal: 1 billion, which is the value of 640,000 BUCK after five cycles.
According to the exponential decline growth model:
If you want to achieve wealth freedom after 1 cycle, you need 400 million BUCK；;
If you want to achieve wealth freedom in two cycles, you need to have 80 million dollars; ;
If we want to realize three cycles of wealth freedom, we need160,000 BUCK；;
If you want to achieve wealth freedom after four cycles, you need 3.2 million BUCK；;
If you want to achieve wealth freedom after five cycles, you need to have 640 thousand dollars; ;
The longer you spend, the less money you need. Maybe one day tens or hundreds of dollars will make you financially free!
But my question is, are you willing to wait so long? At present, each cycle only takes a few months or even less.
Or how long are you willing to wait? Or can you afford hundreds of thousands of dollars now?
The reality is that at today's currency prices, you only need about 20,000 yuan to have 640,000 dollars. So, if you want to realize the freedom of wealth by saving money, do you have any plans to save money?
Therefore, even if you know that hoarding money can realize the freedom of wealth, you can't hoard it, just because you can't wait that long, otherwise you will sell it several times.
This is precisely the contradiction. If you buy $640,000, you will have to wait two or three years to be free. You think it's too long and you don't want to wait. It's annoying. However, if you don't buy it, two or three years later, you may not even have a chance to get upset, because at that time, you couldn't even afford tens of thousands of dollars.
Do we have a shortcut?
First of all, you may need to reflect. Are your requirements too high? The vast majority of people have no possibility of realizing wealth freedom in this life, and only a few people can. Hoarding $640,000, waiting for two or three years and doing nothing else is already a shortcut among shortcuts.
Secondly, frantically improving the ability to make money outside the circle, earning more legal tender and hoarding more money can shorten the time to realize wealth freedom. But to shorten the cycle of 1, the amount of funds will be about five times, which is very difficult for everyone. This is the path I have chosen, at least it is stable.
Thirdly, the way to realize wealth freedom quickly will always exist, or it may not be limited to hoarding money, but the overall probability is extremely low. There are many innovations, so many companies, and how many can become BAT? I am also practicing this road, but there is little hope.
People are often like this. In fact, they have already taken shortcuts, and they are still desperately looking for shortcuts everywhere.
How about all kinds of tossing in the currency circle?
Of course. Many old people in the currency circle are tossing, but except for a few people, the results of most people are not ideal.
What you need to know is that it is often more difficult to make money in the currency circle, and it is even more difficult to make money and buy coins from outside the circle. The reason is simple: the total amount of Barker is limited, fixed at 840 million.
People in the circle want to make money, and more and more people enter the circle. When 65438+ 10,000 people play, the average person is 8400 coins; By the time 1 10,000 people play, there will be only 840 coins per person on average. This is why, playing around, everyone's money is getting less and less. On the contrary, people who make money outside the circle buy coins and do nothing, but more and more coins become the highest-paid people.
Many people have lost money, so they need to do something to make up for it. Very easy to understand. The original thousands of coins have become hundreds after playing for a while. Would you like to? So, you start to earn it back, but how easy is it? So you have to consider some bad actions.
There are several types of people who earn money in the circle. In fact, everyone knows which types, so here are my personal suggestions:
If you want to play leveraged futures, you should open an exchange and cut leeks on your own exchange instead of going to someone else's exchange. Being hacked by others is still a trivial matter. The key is being scolded by others, which is very humbled. What's more, if you lose, it's even less worthwhile.
If you want to play mining, you should look for a mining machine, or build a mining pool, or have a power plant, instead of buying a mining machine or mining in the cloud. Earn a little hard money when the market is good, and bear all the risks when the market is bad.
All in all, in the circle, you need to find ways to put other people's money into your pocket and strive for the early realization of wealth freedom. If you don't have these abilities, then maybe you should wait patiently like me.
Finally, I sincerely wish every reader of mine can finally realize the freedom of wealth.