In the first quarter of 20 19, the chicken stocks headed by Minhe shares surged. At that time, pork was in the early stage of African swine fever, and the substitution effect of chicken was obvious. It is also a law of the market that chickens benefit when the country adjusts several pig cycles. From the market point of view, this wave of Minhe shares is very big, but in fact, from the time period, it continues the previous band trend, which also shows the characteristics of the industry itself. Therefore, doing band is familiar with the rhythm of an industry, not what many investors think, but the cycle of stock prices.
After the chicken, the pig cycle appeared. Due to the influence of classical swine fever, the amount of slaughter dropped sharply, and pig farmers were basically losing money, forming a state of clearance. Then pork prices rebounded sharply and rose several times in a row. Pork also rose sharply from 20 19, especially the stock like Tang Renshen, which has been in a slump for several years. This time, the pork cycle broke out and rose several times in a short time.
As for the leading stocks excavated for everyone, the trend of Muyuan shares is different. Pork is in a downturn cycle, and the pig cycle continues to rebound. Perhaps not every time it is a leading stock, but it has never been absent in the plate industry. This is the characteristic of this kind of stock. At the same time, the trend cycle is similar to that of Minhe and other chicken stocks, and it is also a typical active cycle. Generally speaking, the forecast of a quarterly report began to rebound, and began to decline after the publication of the quarterly report. This feature has been fulfilled in recent quarters, that is, after tracking individual stocks continuously, I am familiar with the experience formed.
Judging from the big cycle, this wave of strong pork cycle has come to an end. From the price point of view, the latest wholesale price of pork hit a new low in more than seven months, with the biggest drop of 23.56% during the year. From the point of view of farmers, the profit of pig breeding has dropped from the historical high of more than 3,000 yuan/head to the current 1 10,000 yuan/head. Moreover, the policy has continuously increased the support for pig breeding (for example, in February 20 19, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the Three-year Action Plan for Accelerating the Recovery and Development of Pig Production, etc.). Many enterprises have joined the pig breeding industry, and the pork production capacity will continue to recover. It is very likely that by the beginning of next year, supply will exceed demand and prices will fall below the cost line.
In addition, there is another factor, that is, the upcoming listing of pig futures is likely to break the traditional "pig cycle", that is, high pork prices will stimulate pigs to make up for the shortage, which will lead to an increase in supply, while the increase in supply will lead to a decrease in meat prices, which will discourage farmers, lead to a shortage of supply, and the shortage of supply will lead to an increase in meat prices, and so on. Futures itself can reflect the future price and has the function of hedging, so pork production can avoid ups and downs and enter a state of balance between supply and demand. Therefore, after the latest quarterly report window was active, pork was in a state of decline.
Therefore, pork and chicken are hyped, and the short-term risk-return ratio is not good. Therefore, investors who prefer this band industry can consider another industry, which is also an obvious band cycle, and can repeatedly use their research homework. At the same time, it also has its own characteristics, especially during June-July over the years, there will always be a cycle of industry price bottoming, which is worth our study. Next, we will focus on the analysis.