# Strategic Thinking: What color is "Jin Jiu"? The hot summer in July and August is followed by the cool autumn in September. Whether it is the construction of infrastructure real estate or the consumption of buying a house and a car, there is a saying of "golden nine silver ten".
Rebar is "not prosperous in peak season". Since September, the social inventory of rebar has been at a high level close to 9 million tons, instead of falling; The average daily turnover of steel traders still fluctuates between 21-220,000 tons/day, and there is no obvious seasonal increase so far. The market demand for rebar in the future is expected to drop rapidly, and the thread futures will fall in succession, while the spot is relatively stable, and the spot price difference in the thread period will begin to be repaired.
Looking at other fields, the color of "Jin Jiu" is average. First, real estate sales turned positive in September, but the range was low. Before September 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 553,000 square meters, up 6.5% compared with the same period in August, which was the "penultimate" increase in the past decade. This means that the real estate market ended the "two-day losing streak" in the off-season from July to August, and officially ushered in the "Jin Jiu" market, but the momentum was not strong. Second, the sales of passenger cars in September were also low. In the first two weeks of September, the average daily sales volume of passenger cars (based on the caliber of the Federation) was 36,900, an increase of 7% compared with the same period in August, and the range was less than 2065,438+08 (9.8%) and 2065,438+09 (65,438+04.0%), and the sales trend of passenger cars was relatively stable. Third, the price of building materials can't go up. Affected by the "super-long" plum flood season, the price of cement rose in August ahead of schedule, which may "advance" the increase in September to some extent; The price of glass is approaching an absolute high. Excessive growth of time (cement) or amplitude (glass) may lead to subsequent "stagnation", which may further strengthen the expectation of "off-season".
On the whole, this year's "Jin Jiu" seems to be weaker than expected, and the fundamental environment in September is relatively friendly to the bond market than in August. However, in the medium term, we still adhere to the view of "recovery relay": from the three-factor model of "money-credit-economy", the changes of money and credit are relatively synchronous, leading the economy by about one year; At present, the economy is still in the radiation range of monetary and credit expansion, and the upward process of nominal growth rate has not yet been completed. Short-term interest rates are dominated by fluctuations, or there may be trading opportunities but there is not much room for game (20BP on average), and there is still upward pressure to be released in the medium term.
# Resumption of trading: the financial pressure has not disappeared. (1) The interest rate of funds rises again. The central bank continues to overfulfill MLF to maintain medium and long-term liquidity; At the same time, short-term liquidity is still under pressure due to the expiration of a large number of reverse repurchase and the approach of the end of the season. Yields on 23-year and 5-year government bonds continued to fall. The volume of spot bonds is stable, and the overall yield of government bonds has not changed much, with a large downward trend of 3Y and 5Y. The duration of the fund went down to 2.38 years, and the degree of duration difference continued to rebound but remained at a low level. ③ Rural commercial banks and overseas institutions are the main buyers. 2002 10: mainly rural commercial banks are buying and brokers are selling; 200006: mainly overseas institutions are buying, and stock banks are selling. ④ The ten synchronous indicators of interest rate are mainly negative signals (10/ 10).
# Risk warning: The epidemic situation abroad is repeated.
main body
Strategic Thinking: What color is "Jin Jiu"?
Rebar is "not prosperous in peak season". The hot summer in July and August is followed by the cool autumn in September. Therefore, whether it is the construction of infrastructure real estate or the consumption of buying a house and a car, there is a saying of "golden nine silver ten".
The peak construction season is reflected in the demand for steel, which will show obvious seasonality: from September every year, due to the demand during the peak construction period, the social inventory of rebar will drop significantly, and the turnover of building materials of steel traders will increase significantly. Since the beginning of September this year, the social inventory of rebar is still close to the high level of 9 million tons, with a slight increase, and there is no obvious downward trend so far; Looking at the transaction data of steel traders, after September this year, the average daily turnover of 237 steel traders still fluctuated between 21~ 220,000 tons/day, and there has been no seasonal increase so far.
Thread futures have fallen, and the spot is relatively stable. Because the futures price is a comprehensive reflection of the current market supply and demand situation and the future supply and demand expectation, after the expected fermentation in the "low peak season", the future demand for rebar in the market drops rapidly, and futures prices fall one after another. At the spot level, the transaction and inventory data show that there is no big marginal change in the current market supply and demand compared with the previous period, which supports the spot steel price and the spot decline of rebar is relatively small.
In addition, after the end of the domestic epidemic, under the background of countercyclical adjustment, infrastructure and real estate started well, and the price of thread futures continued to rise, showing signs of "hyperinflation"; However, the spot price stopped rising and went to a high level after the inflection point of inventory in early June, so the spot price difference in the thread period narrowed to near 0. However, according to the historical market, the spot price difference in the thread period is usually maintained at the level of-100~-200, and the low price difference in the previous period needs to be repaired urgently. This is also a reason why the current round of futures fell more than the spot.
Looking at other fields, the color of "Jin Jiu" is average. First, real estate sales turned positive in September, but the range was low. The peak consumption season is reflected in the real estate market: the sales area of commercial housing is usually increased in September every year compared with August. In the past ten years, the housing sales in September of 20 12 and 20 18 were less than those in August, and September in other years was better than August, that is, the so-called "Jin Jiu" phenomenon in the real estate market was generally established on the data level.
As far as this year is concerned, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities before September 19 was 553,000 square meters, up 6.5% compared with the same period in August, only higher than 20 1 and 20 17, which was the "third lowest" increase in the last decade. This means that the real estate market ended the "two-day losing streak" in the off-season from July to August, and officially ushered in the "Jin Jiu" market, but the momentum was not strong. In addition, the base in September last year was too high (2065438+September 2009, housing sales increased by 16.6%, the highest value in recent ten years), which led to a sharp year-on-year decline in September this year, from 15.9% to 4. 1%.
Second, the sales of passenger cars in September were also low. In addition to the real estate market, the peak consumption season is also reflected in the automobile market: from September every year, the sales of passenger cars have increased substantially until the end of the year. 2065438+06-17 September passenger car sales increased by more than 25% compared with August. 20 18- 19, although the auto market is sluggish, the chain-on-chain increase still appears, but the increase has narrowed.
As far as this year is concerned, the average daily sales volume of passenger cars (the size of passenger car associations) in the first two weeks of September was 36,900, up 7% compared with the same period in August, and the range was less than 2065,438+08 (9.8%) and 2065,438+09 (65,438+04.0%). In other words, the sales trend of passenger cars is relatively stable, and there is no obvious growth. It should be noted that the sales of passenger cars in the second week of September increased significantly year-on-year, mainly because the second week of September last year was the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a low base and a large year-on-year increase.
Third, the price of building materials can't go up. Take the price of cement as an example: due to the "super long" rainy season this year, the rainy season started early (June 1 7 days earlier) and ended late (August 2 15 days later), and the rainy season lasted for 62 days, ranking as 19665438 with 20 15. This has a continuous impact on downstream construction, leading to a sharp drop in cement prices from June to July, and a "retaliatory" rebound after the rainy season in August. According to the general rule, the starting point of cement price increase in the second half of the year is September, so the increase in August may "advance" the increase in September to some extent.
Look at the price of glass: at the end of August, the price of glass rushed to 95.3 yuan, and in mid-September, the price remained stagnant at 95.8 yuan. This is because the price of glass has approached the "ceiling" since 2009, and the upward momentum is insufficient. However, the subsequent "stagnation" caused by time (cement) or amplitude (glass) may in turn strengthen the expectation of "off-season".
On the whole, this year's "Jin Jiu" seems to be weaker than expected, and the economic environment in September is more friendly to the bond market than in August. But in the medium term, we still adhere to the view of "recovery relay", that is, there is still a "second half" of economic recovery. From the three-factor model of "money-credit-economy", the changes of money and credit are relatively synchronous, which is about one year ahead of the economy; At present, the economy is still in the radiation range of monetary and credit expansion, and the upward process of nominal growth rate has not yet been completed. Short-term interest rate volatility is dominant, or there may be trading opportunities, but the game space is not large (the average rebound of historical bear market is about 20BP), and there is still upward pressure to be released in the medium term.
Resumption of trading: the financial pressure has not disappeared.
Yields on 3Y and 5Y government bonds continued to fall. This week, the turnover of spot bonds remained stable, and the average daily turnover rose slightly from 1. 16 trillion yuan to 1. 18 trillion yuan. Combined with the yield of spot bonds, except for 1Y, the yield of government bonds mostly goes down, among which the two "bumps" 3Y and 5Y on the yield curve go down by 8BP and 7BP respectively, and the yields of other key maturities generally go down by 1-2BP, with little change. This is because, although the central bank continued to do more than MLF, which stabilized the medium-and long-term liquidity expectations, with the fading of MLF benefits, coupled with the net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and the approach of the end of the season, short-term liquidity tightened and the pressure on the bond market reappeared. As of Friday (September 18), the yield of 1Y treasury bonds was 2.6 1%, up from the previous period1BP; 10Y Treasury yield reported 3. 12%, down1BP; The term spread of 10- 1Y is stable at around 50BP.
Rural commercial banks and overseas institutions are the main buyers. This week, the transaction of spot bonds remained stable, and the yield of government bonds changed little. According to the transaction details of a single bond, ① in ①2002 10/0, rural commercial banks were the main buyers, with a total net purchase of 4.74 billion yuan in the week; On the contrary, brokers are the main sellers, with net sales of 4.33 billion yuan, followed by city commercial banks and stock banks, with net sales of 3.50 billion yuan and 2.24 billion yuan respectively. ②200006: Overseas institutions were the main buyers, with a total net purchase of 510.50 billion yuan during the week; On the contrary, stock banks and city commercial banks are the main sellers, with net sales of 2.95 billion yuan and 2.47 billion yuan respectively.
The duration of the fund decreased slightly. As of Friday (September 18), the weighted duration of fund size was 2.38 years (down by 0.02), and the duration position was at the level of 65438+ this year1the end of October. At the same time, the persistence dispersion degree continued to rebound by 0.0 1 year, indicating that the differences in market views gradually increased, but it was still lower than that in the middle and late July.
Other institutions, securities companies and overseas institutions have changed greatly and have different directions. Among them, the duration of securities companies is 3.6 1 year (a sharp drop of 0.30 years); The duration of overseas institutions is 4.50 years (up by 0.54 years). The duration of other institutions increased slightly: insurance institutions were 9.96 years (up 0.04 years); The duration of the bank is 4.52 (upward 0. 12 years); The duration of the trust company is 3.39 years (up by 0.20 years).
Ten synchronous indicators of interest rate are mainly negative (10/ 10). As of Friday (September 18), the signals released by the top ten synchronous indicators of interest rate are mainly "bad", accounting for1010 respectively: ① excavator sales (6 MMA)5 1.4%, an increase of 34.5% compared with the previous value, with the following attributes. ② The national cement price was -3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -4.0%, and the attribute was "negative"; ③ The crude steel output of key enterprises was 2.7%(6 MMA) year-on-year, which was higher than the previous value 1.0%, and the attribute was "negative"; ④ The coal consumption of key power plants is 4.0%(6 MMA) year-on-year, which is higher than the previous value 1.3%, and the attribute is "negative"; ⑤ Iron ore port inventory1.1.400 million tons, which is higher than the previous value1.1.300 million tons, and the attribute is "negative"; ⑥ The movie box office revenue was -53.7%(6 MMA) year-on-year, which was higher than the previous value of -74.6%, and the attribute was "negative"; ⑦PMI is-10.6% year-on-year, which is higher than the previous value-1 1.7%, and the attribute is "negative"; 8 The credit period is 9.3%, which is lower than the previous value 10.9%, and the attribute is "bad"; Pet-name ruby dollar index is 93.0 1, which is lower than the previous value of 93.03, and the attribute is "negative"; ⑩ The ratio of copper to gold 15.6 is higher than the previous value 14.8, and the attribute is "negative".
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