Since the beginning of this year, in addition to the rise in food prices and energy prices, the rise in fertilizer prices has also begun to attract attention. Fertilizer is closely related to energy and food. On the one hand, coal and natural gas are important raw materials for fertilizer production. On the other hand, the growth of grain is also inseparable from chemical fertilizers. At present, the soaring price of coal and natural gas makes the production cost of chemical fertilizer rise, which in turn makes the cost of grain planting high, thus triggering a series of conduction effects.

First, the global fertilizer price soared.

This year, domestic fertilizer prices have risen rapidly. Taking urea as an example, the original 80-90 yuan urea per bag rose to 150-60 yuan, which directly doubled, which is also the main reason for the sharp increase in planting cost this year. But not only in China, but also in the global fertilizer price.

In North America, the price of fertilizer has risen to a new high. The futures price of diammonium hydrogen phosphate in the United States has increased by 74.3% this year, and CF Industry, the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer plant, has also announced that it will close two plants due to energy shortage. In addition, the price of fertilizer in Canada has also soared, which is also the biggest increase since 20 15.

Europe with the worst energy crisis is no exception. In the past year, the price of fertilizer in France has more than tripled, and many farmers are overwhelmed. In Britain, fertilizer plants even stopped production and closed down.

With the global fertilizer price rising, on the one hand, countries increase imports to make up for domestic demand, on the other hand, farmers also express their reluctance to plant corn, a crop that is highly dependent on fertilizers, and instead plant soybeans and sunflower seeds.

Two, the domestic fertilizer market has undergone important changes.

Domestic fertilizer prices are still at a high level. Although the state has repeatedly regulated and curbed the rise in fertilizer prices, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the background of tight supply and demand. Especially after the bid opening not long ago, the price of printed bid increased even more, because the price of printed bid was nearly 1000 yuan higher than that of domestic one ton, so the urea market rose sharply. Most of the 732,000 tons of goods finally confirmed came from China. On the other hand, at present, the domestic autumn harvest, agricultural demand has also begun to pick up. So as to further promote the urea market.

Just last week, the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement to add "B" to 29 customs commodity numbers involving chemical fertilizer exporters 10, and to carry out export commodity inspection on related commodities, which will be implemented on 15. In other words, the chemical fertilizers including urea exported by 15 must obtain the inspection and quarantine report issued by the State Entry-Exit Quarantine and Inspection Bureau before they can pass customs clearance. This means that export enterprises need to go through the inspection procedures before declaration, and then declare 3-5 days in advance. If customs officers need to take samples and the goods are newly filed, it will also involve filing and other issues, and the procedures are extremely complicated.

The adjustment of this policy has a great influence on the export of chemical fertilizers. On the one hand, some goods will be blocked by inspection, some related procedures and complicated processes will be blocked, and the passage time of the remaining goods will be delayed. Obviously, it is not easy to export smoothly through layers of procedures. The blocked export means the increase of domestic fertilizer supply, and the increase of domestic supply means that the price will be expected to slow down.

Third, influence geometry?

The most direct impact of chemical fertilizer is the cost of growing grain. The increase in fertilizer prices this year has directly pushed up the cost of growing grain. However, food is not only the basis of survival, but also the basic raw material for many industries. If food prices soar, it will increase the cost of other industries, which will lead to the price increase of major industries, and eventually lead to the general price increase, and this part of the rising cost will eventually be paid by ordinary consumers. Therefore, this is also an important reason for the state to vigorously regulate food prices.

Since there is limited room for food prices to rise, it is necessary to reduce planting costs, that is, to cool the price of chemical fertilizers. Fertilizer exports are mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and the announcement of this policy will undoubtedly have a great impact on the fertilizer market and benefit domestic supply.

On the other hand, due to the increase in global fertilizer prices, farmers' willingness to plant corn in various countries has greatly decreased, and the decrease in corn planting means that corn production will decline in the coming year. Corn plays an important role in grain. Once the corn yield drops, it means that the price will rise again, which intensifies the fluctuation of corn price. China increased corn imports in September, which may be related to this. However, on the other hand, this has also formed a certain support for domestic corn prices. Although the high probability of corn will not be as crazy as last year, it also greatly reduces the possibility of a sharp decline.