First, the price of wheat rises frequently.
This year, wheat is in the limelight. First of all, before wheat went on the market, the voice of the market was constant. On the one hand, it continued the high operation of the grain market last year, and everyone was expecting a good price for wheat. On the other hand, with the announcement of corn substitution, wheat has become the first choice for corn substitution, so the attention of wheat has greatly increased.
Then, when wheat went on the market, it also encountered weather changes, which also caused the quality differentiation of wheat, but it was not obvious when it was first listed. However, with the end of wheat acquisition, wheat before rain and wheat after rain are obviously differentiated, and most of the wheat after rain flows into feed, while high-quality wheat before rain is more scarce, so the price of wheat rises. Until the autumn harvest came, the focus of the market began to turn to corn, but wheat ushered in a contrarian surge, with the highest rise above 1.4 yuan/kg. Why did wheat skyrocket? There are three main reasons:
First, with the scarcity of high-quality wheat and the decline of temporary storage auction, the market supply is becoming more and more tense.
Second, the autumn harvest of corn also suffered from weather changes, which delayed the harvest of some corn and delayed the winter sowing of some wheat. Coupled with the rising cost of planting, people are optimistic about the wheat market next year, thus intensifying the current demand.
Third, due to the recurrence of epidemic in some areas, there are still behaviors such as eating meat and noodles, especially after the National Day, the price of flour has risen sharply. At first, it only rose by one or two dollars, and later it rose by three or five dollars or even eight or nine dollars, which directly made people look silly.
However, the wheat market is difficult to sustain for a long time. At present, the state reserves 47 million tons of wheat. Once the policy is overweight, wheat will face a callback.
Second, the international wheat supply is tight.
While the domestic wheat market is changing, the international wheat market is not idle. Originally, in the middle of this year, the wheat in the main producing countries grew well and was expected to have a bumper harvest. As a result, with the change of the weather, there has been a reduction in production. Severe dry weather in North America has reduced wheat production, while heavy rainfall in Europe has also caused wheat to suffer. Even Russia, the largest exporter of wheat, reduced its output, and the market of wheat suddenly turned from wide to tight, and the price rose instantly.
With the reduction of wheat production, countries began to import wheat from Europe, which greatly increased European wheat exports. By the end of the month, European wheat exports are expected to reach 1 1 10,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%. It is even predicted that Europe will surpass Russia as the world's largest wheat exporter next year, which also makes the futures and spot prices of wheat both rise.
On the other hand, this year we encountered "Double La Nina". La Nina may threaten wheat production in Canada and Russia. 20 1 1 Affected by La Nina, the global wheat production decreased by 35 million tons.
Under the influence of many factors, the global supply and demand of wheat is heating up.
Third, the conclusion
Corn and wheat are closely related. Although the domestic corn market is still waiting to see, the general space can also be foreseen. There is a certain ceiling on the upside, and we can't take last year's market as the criterion, because this year's policies and market trends have changed, while there are many strong supports on the downside, so it is difficult to go down sharply. Coupled with the bullish wheat market, the substitution for corn has declined, which is also good for corn.