On March 26th, a sudden plunge swept across the US stock market, and many Chinese stocks such as Tencent Music, Vipshop and iQiyi plunged synchronously.
Tencent Music dropped from $32 to 16, Vipshop dropped from $46 to $25, iQiyi dropped from $29 to 15, and the most exaggerated thing was who to learn from, from 6 1 to $30.
Among them, two stocks unrelated to China Stock Exchange were mixed, one was Discovery Channel and the other was Viacom CBS, which fell by 27% respectively.
Several unrelated stocks fell together, which smacked of conspiracy theory.
Finally, the truth slowly surfaced. It turned out that a hedge fund called Archegos broke its position. The head of the fund is Bill Hwang from South Korea. He is a saint, and his assets have soared 500 times in seven years.
Looks a little like Sean.
The reason for the explosion was Viacom's announcement of a large-scale issuance, which fell by 9% that day and 23% the next day, and this stock happened to be Bill's heavyweight stock.
Bill has quadrupled the leverage of this stock.
This wave obviously hurts a little. According to the requirements of the brokerage firm, Bill needs to add a margin.
However, the market below is very unfriendly to him. Because of the influence of Sino-US relations, the trend of Chinese stocks in his hand is in jeopardy and he has to lighten his position.
But tens of billions of stocks with market value, will someone take over in minutes?
The more you want to run, the fewer people will take orders in the market, and a large number of selling orders will be suppressed, and then the China stock market will collapse.
As a result, this incident led to the single-day explosion of Archegos of 654.38+0.5 billion US dollars, making it the largest single-day explosion in human history, setting a Guinness record.
Many people attribute this outbreak to high leverage, which is obviously correct.
After all, Bill doesn't have the leverage to speculate in the stock market, and it won't be so far now.
So people began to expand their contacts, and leverage is a scourge, which will bring people into a state of perdition.
This statement ... is actually true. Many bosses who get along well with each other end up with high leverage.
Leverage, a bit like drugs, can infinitely amplify your pleasure, but it is particularly serious. Once the body can't bear it, it must be a disaster.
And one thing is very similar, that is, the lever can't be quit at all.
Once you use the lever, you use it all your life.
When the leveraged investment is successful, the dopamine released in the brain is specifically increased by 100 times.
Don't ask me how I know, I'll use 10 leverage to speculate on Bitcoin now.
So I can understand why Bill didn't cash in at the highest point and accept it when he was ready.
First of all, the word "high point" is similar to a flying saucer in the investment field-I have only heard of it, but I have never seen it.
It's like speculating in stocks, and everyone wants to cash in at a high point, but it's completely impossible.
The stock has gone up, you want it to go up until it falls back to your cost price, and you will never be satisfied.
When Bill used 200 million principal to achieve 5 billion principal, he obviously didn't realize that this was already a "high point", and then he tripled the leverage and abruptly pulled the funds to 654.38+05 billion.
Some people will say $200 million. Oh, my God, this is an astronomical figure. Why is he not satisfied?
This problem involves the special theory of relativity, which is difficult to explain clearly, but we can care about it.
For example, if you have 20,000 yuan in your hand, it can rise to 500,000 yuan in just a few years through your coquettish operation. Will you wash your hands of it?
Of course not. I'm so awesome. The correct way is to borrow money to invest, accumulate wealth quickly and realize wealth freedom in a short time.
So you will want to get a credit card, borrow money from friends, mortgage your house, wife and so on. And then I want to reach a figure, say 5 million, and then I will pay off all the previous ones.
Fortunately, you really achieved 5 million yuan in a short time. You kept your promise and redeemed your wife.
But are you satisfied with 5 million?
NoNoNo, 5 million is the starting point and 50 million is the milestone.
So you will try your best to raise money everywhere, whether it is private photos or illegal fund-raising, and tell others with your own achievements that if you eat meat, everyone can drink soup, benefiting the people and benefiting all beings.
In this way, you gradually become bill, and one day, you will experience the taste of collapse.
Although leverage is terrible, I strongly recommend that you use it, although it sounds anti-human on the surface.
Because leverage is the only way for ordinary people to achieve class leap, the less money you have, the more you need to use high leverage.
To put it bluntly, how much cash loss can an ordinary citizen have?
As the saying goes, barefoot people are not afraid to wear shoes, and often barefoot can achieve great things. When they have assets, they are timid and cheated.
Therefore, many of the founding emperors of the past dynasties came from peasant uprisings. In the final analysis, they used high leverage and succeeded.
In fact, leverage should not be narrowly understood as investment leverage, but as leverage thinking.
Being a company to recruit people is far more efficient than going it alone, but the risks it takes are geometric multiples, which is a kind of leveraged thinking;
Small money likes to make high-risk investments, such as stock futures, while real big money is often steady and solid, which is also a kind of leveraged thinking.
In other words, we can understand leverage as a radical investment model, which is necessary when we are fighting for our country.
When assets reach a certain scale, it is necessary to deleverage and operate steadily, which is to protect the country and defend the country.
For example, in 2008, it invested 4 trillion yuan in real estate, and now it is reasonable not to speculate on housing.
The key core lies in how to grasp the node from war to defense.
It's like what happens if Bill stops at 5 billion and trades in cash without leverage?
This problem is 100 times more difficult than special relativity, and the answer is no solution.
Because you can never predict the future risks.
Therefore, the only way to resist risks is to fight and defend.
For example, China real estate just started macro-control this year?
No, as early as Wen Jiabao's time, someone proposed a law to "curb the excessive growth of housing prices".
This is a defense.
Is the effect good? Not good, because the pleasure of leverage is addictive. At that time, the overall risk was controllable and it was not as complicated as the current international situation.
By the same token, it is not impossible for you to invest with high leverage, but for every 1 of Yuan You's income, you must divide it into 1/3 ~ 1/2, and you can really keep your wealth by permanently quitting this field.
With such discipline, we can ensure that we can get away with it on the day of the crash.
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