Up to now, the statistics of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle still stays on the ninth working day, and the monitoring of the last working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle will be officially announced tomorrow. Although the forecast increase of domestic gasoline and diesel in the first nine working days was at a high level of 170 yuan/ton, the statistics of the last working day included the international oil price trend throughout the Spring Festival holiday. Once the international crude oil price continues to plummet during the holidays, the positive change rate of crude oil is likely to narrow to the stranded range.
However, it turns out that the last working day did not bring the expected variables of this round of oil price adjustment. Judging from the closing of international oil prices today, some oil wells in Texas were forced to close due to rare cold wave weather, the crude oil supply was expected to tighten, and the geopolitical situation was unstable, which led to the continuous rise of international oil prices.
Closing date of crude oil: On Tuesday (February 16), WTI (US crude oil futures) closed at US$ 60.05 per barrel, up US$ 0.58 from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures closed at US$ 63.35 per barrel, up US$ 0.05 from the previous trading day, and then China SC crude oil futures continued to be closed for the Spring Festival holiday.
According to the author's statistics, since the Spring Festival holiday, US crude oil and Brent crude oil have increased by 2.08 USD/barrel and 2.79 USD/barrel respectively. Therefore, referring to the monitoring data of the ninth working day, combined with the performance of international oil prices during the Spring Festival, it can be inferred that the corresponding increase on the 10 working day will exceed 200 yuan/ton, specifically to No.92 and No.95 gasoline and No.0 diesel. The increase is about 0. 15 yuan/to 0. 17 yuan/liter. This oil price adjustment will start at 24: 00 on February 18, which means that the oil price will rise as scheduled tomorrow!
Up to now, 202 1 has had two rounds of domestic refined oil price adjustment for a total of 25 times. Specifically, the oil price was raised twice, lowered and stranded zero times, in which gasoline and diesel were raised by 260 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively. Then, it is the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle, and during the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil not only did not fall continuously, but rose as a whole, so the oil price increase tomorrow night is a certain event. After this round of price adjustment, the price adjustment pattern of 202 1 will become "three rises, zero falls and zero runs aground".
In fact, the recent rise in crude oil has boosted the market, and domestic refined oil wholesale has already entered a rising frenzy. In addition, during the Spring Festival, the replenishment of downstream terminal gas stations is basically in place, and the market may gradually enter the destocking stage. The gasoline and diesel market once ushered in a small peak, and the main domestic units were mainly stable prices and adjusted sporadically. In terms of independent refineries, there are still relatively few middle and lower reaches with stocking demand, and the price of gasoline and diesel in independent refineries may only fluctuate within a narrow range.
In terms of retail sales, taking Shandong as an example, the prices of No.92 and No.95 gasoline in major gas stations such as Sinopec and PetroChina are 6. 14 and 6.59 yuan/liter respectively, and the price increase of this round of retail sales is about 0. 16 yuan/liter, so private car owners can fill up their fuel tanks before tomorrow night, otherwise a box of gasoline will be about 8 yuan. However, from the retail of some private gas stations, preferential policies are still going on. Generally speaking, the retail price of gasoline in private gas stations is 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than that in main gas stations, and the preferential intensity during some site activities can reach 1.2- 1.3 yuan/liter.
Secondly, the next price adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on March 3, 20021,and international relations may ease, and Iran's increased supply may bring new bad news. Therefore, the author predicts that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is more likely.