Two years ago, Tianjin Precious Metals began to develop agents across the country before it received official approval. Now that it has received approval, its agent development speed is worth learning from. However, regarding the value and scientific nature of the Tianjin precious metals market itself, as well as its market expansion methods, many aspects are worthy of rational reflection.
Tianjin Precious Metals has fatal pains in the following aspects:
1. As a market maker, it cannot transfer excess orders in time and can only take them on its own, which may be faced at any time. Fatal crash risk.
A reasonable market must match transactions. Only in this way can profits and losses be realized to the main body. In the matched trading market, if a member unit submits 100 long orders and 150 short orders at the same price at the same time, then a transaction fee of 150 lots needs to be paid. As a member unit, you can use this One hundred long and short lots are internally hedged and digested, and only fifty short lots are submitted to the matching market. Therefore, only fifty lots of handling fees are paid. This is the rationality of the market maker system - reducing the operator's transaction fees. Because there is a time delay in submitting redundant one-way transactions to the upper-level matching transaction market, this is also the reason why market makers charge spreads; from the above analysis, it can be seen that the market maker system is an integral part of the matching transaction market; in this way, Tianjin Precious Metals must develop The market dealer model will face two important problems: one is the trading time, Tianjin precious metals cannot be integrated with any domestic market, and the other is the difference between domestic silver prices and international prices; in this way, Tianjin precious metals seems to only be able to cooperate with international traders. However, so far, the Chinese government has not approved any foreign traders to enter the mainland and open offices. Of course, some people will propose another market maker model, which is that all the orders are taken by the bankers. I don’t know any banker that can take over China’s gold market. Even the Tianjin Municipal Government will encounter a wave of large-scale unilateral Most people in the market succeed in trading, but they may not be able to withstand the profits of all China. A collapse is still not ruled out. When the time comes, who will explain to investors? It's better if the investors lose money, but who will pay if the collective makes a profit? Are there still few examples of this kind of illegal external betting in the past?
2. Silver cannot be withdrawn in cash at all.
Tianjin precious metal silver can be withdrawn in spot form. This news was confirmed after multiple consultations. However, when you really want to withdraw it, you will definitely encounter trouble. The root cause is that the Tianjin precious metal silver quotation follows the international price, while domestic The difference between the silver price and the international silver price is more than 200 yuan per kilogram. If Tianjin can pick up the goods, the situation faced can be demonstrated with a practical example: the customer picks up the spot in Tianjin at 3,700 yuan per kilogram, and Tianjin precious metals are sold from Shanghai at a price of more than 3,900 yuan. The exchange picks up the goods and transfers them to customers. Is it possible for Tianjin Precious Metals to do this? If silver manufacturers can sell it for more than 3,900 yuan on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, will they sell it to Tianjin Precious Metals at a price of 3,700 yuan? Unless the delivery fee of precious metal silver in Tianjin is more than 200 yuan per kilogram, not to mention that the current supply in my country's silver market is far from meeting demand.
3. The handling fee does not reflect the advantages of market makers.
Through the analysis of the market maker model, we can know that a reasonable market maker's market should be an integral part of the matching market, and the rationality lies in the advantage of charging fees. However, for Tianjin precious metals, the spread is 0.5 yuan, and the handling fee is 70,000 yuan. Calculated based on the gold price of 200 yuan per gram, the transaction fee is the spread (0.5 times 1,000) plus [(200 times 1,000 times 10,000 times) 7) Multiply by 2] equals 780 yuan, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange calculates it at 18/10,000, and the transaction fee is: [(200 times 1,000 times 18/10,000) times 2] equals 720; many people only see 7 out of 10,000. I didn’t pay attention to the fact that the spread of 0.5 is the big deal, and the spread has a lot of uncertainty, which may lead to a delay in the transaction time, that is, slippage and failure to complete the transaction. This is common and often seen in many external transactions. Appear.
Four. The gimmick of twenty-four-hour trading.
About 24-hour trading, it is not only the advantage promoted by Tianjin Precious Metals, but also a gimmick that used to attract customers. Is 24-hour trading really that good? We might as well analyze it from the following perspectives:
First, there is no market for continuous 24-hour trading in any country in the world. Even in a financially developed country like the United States, the financial market has such a long history. , all still have fixed opening and closing times;
Second, in these twenty-four hours every day, 02:30 to 07:30, 10:30 to 12:30, 15:30 In the last 12 hours to 20:30, the price of gold was almost completely in shock, so the 24-hour trading was just a gimmick.
Third, from a human physiological point of view, can you bear it if you are given a hundred hours a day to trade?
It is necessary to emphasize the rationality of anything, otherwise it will lead to disaster. The trading hours of the Shanghai Gold Exchange fully cover the main periods of gold price fluctuations, what more can I ask for?
5. The trading mechanism is extremely imperfect.
The year before last, a Tianjin precious metals staff came to negotiate with me and said that Tianjin precious metals business would be opened soon, so I asked him to send me a copy of the trading rules. When I saw it, I immediately smiled and told him to come back to discuss it in at least a year. The trading rules of an exchange are just a few pages, and delivery is covered in one go. Compared with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, what is the accumulation of experience, what is the precipitation of management, and what is the maturity of the market? The gap between them can't help but make people sigh. At that time, the staff member also told me that I must inform the company's decision-makers, otherwise I would delay important matters and go to the leadership to sue me for malfeasance. More than a year later, the matter has become self-evident. I don't know if he is ignorant or wants to bully me for being ignorant.
6. Crazy market expansion model and agency development method.
There is one aspect worth learning about Tianjin Precious Metals, and that is its market expansion method, which has two main highlights: One is the forward-looking nature of market operations, starting when there is only a little sign but no certainty. The development of agents has just begun to be approved for trial operation, and it is already overwhelming. I really don’t know where such a big motivation comes from. This kind of market expansion seems crazy; the second is the way of developing agents-stalking telemarketing, which is admirable , in the current situation where telemarketing has generally encountered cold conditions, they can still do it so vividly, making full use of the low cost and fast service characteristics of telemarketing. They can always use various words to meet with the company's senior executives as much as possible, although everyone now Refuse to say no to telemarketing calls, but stalking tactics will always reinforce your impression of him over and over again, and you will eventually be forced to learn the details. They have lost their basic respect for people, but they have brought telemarketing into a new era. I admire them.
7. Look at the rationality of the market from the perspective of economic functions.
As we all know, the existence of each financial market has its corresponding economic function. The securities market has the function of financing, the futures market and the spot market have the function of transferring risks for gold-producing enterprises and gold-using enterprises, and Financial derivatives that are too pure will dilute these economic functions and turn the market into an outright casino.
Although there are still many people advocating the advantages of financial derivatives, I personally believe that financial derivatives should still focus on certain economic functions. The trading mechanism of stock index futures also bears the responsibility of stabilizing the securities market.
The current crazy development of precious metals in Tianjin has violated the purpose of the State Council's "Opinions on Issues Related to Promoting the Development and Opening-up of Binhai New Area" (Guofa No. 200620), and has lost the essential meaning of the pilot. The many immature and objectively existing insurmountable hidden dangers in the Tianjin precious metals market should arouse the great attention of the national competent authorities. As a cooperative company of Tianjin precious metals, we should also maintain a high degree of vigilance. As practitioners, we also need to have a comprehensive and in-depth understanding. Before you decide whether to participate, don’t be lost by the high commission benefits of being an agent.
This manuscript is completed with a sincere concern for the stability of the country's financial market, concerns about the risks that investors may face, and concern that practitioners may go astray.
The talent is sparse, the knowledge is low, the position is humble, and the words are understated. There may be some distortions, but it is provided with sincerity and for reference, so it may not be a big mistake.