The weekend effect may show that market shocks will intensify

Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets went out of the trend of heavy volume and hit new highs. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 87.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7% from the previous day. . Looking at the market, stock index futures may be launched, which to a certain extent will become a catalyst for stimulating the return of funds to the blue-chip market. Among them, China Unicom rose 6.22%, Sinopec rose 2.05%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose 2.21%, Bank of China rose 3.06%, and China Life rose 2.61%. Judging from the performance of individual stocks, the current ratio of the number of stocks rising and falling in the two cities is close to 3:2, and only 29 stocks fell by more than 3%, indicating that the market short-selling pressure is still not great.

However, after the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index recently reached 5,300 points, there are obvious signs that regulators will strengthen market regulation. For example, the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will crack down on insider trading and market manipulation. Central media such as Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily yesterday Issued a document warning of investment risks, etc.

Wang Antian of Guohai Securities said that since this year, the problems of excessive credit growth and excessive growth of fixed asset investment have not been effectively solved, preventing economic growth from The rapid transition to overheating has become an important regulatory target for the government in the long term in the future. Judging from the current policy orientation, there are obvious signs of management strengthening supervision. At the same time, with the CPI expected to be relatively high in August, there may be the possibility of continuing to strengthen macroeconomic control, which will have a certain impact on the upward trend of the stock market. Considering that the August CPI is about to be released, it is expected that the two cities may see a volatile consolidation trend on Friday.

The issuance of new shares has accelerated recently. Public information shows that on September 7, Zhiguang Electric, Batian Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Huicheng implemented their IPOs. On September 10, Jingcheng Copper and Aoyang Technology debuted. On September 11, the issuance of 1.2 billion shares of Bank of Beijing began. China Construction Bank's A-share IPO application was submitted to the 118th Issuance Review Committee Working Meeting of 2007 for review on September 7. It plans to issue no more than 9 billion A-shares, which is expected to be implemented in late September. Zhang Gang of Southwest Securities said that due to the crowding out effect of funds, it is expected that the market will form a certain amount of cash-out pressure this Friday and early next week.

The market outlook is still expected to rise. Be careful of the superposition effect of policies

Judging from historical trends, raising the deposit reserve ratio has not had a substantial impact on the market. Basically, it has Resolve psychological pressure by opening low, and then the market will rise. After this increase in the deposit reserve ratio, will the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets repeat this trend?

Yu Kai of Wuhan Xinland believes that although the A-share market has become the stock market with the highest valuation in the world, the government’s mild regulatory policies cannot change the stock market in the context of extremely abundant funding. its own operating status. Considering that the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held on October 15, stability is the top priority, and it is unlikely that the government will use "strong medicine" to regulate the economy. Therefore, the A-share market is in a relatively stable environment in September. Although after two months of sharp rises, the market has inherent needs for short-term adjustment, the market is more of a structural adjustment, and the stock index is still expected to increase in funds. Continue to hit new highs under the promotion.

Qin Hong of the Bohai Investment Research Institute is more optimistic. He believes that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio will not prevent the stock market from reaching new highs. Because the impact of raising the deposit reserve ratio is to curb banks' impulse to over-lend, thereby having a certain impact on excess liquidity. However, one of the main sources of excess liquidity in the A-share market is the huge foreign exchange reserves brought about by the foreign trade surplus. And raising the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points can freeze 170 billion to 180 billion yuan. In fact, it does not fundamentally change the excess liquidity. Therefore, raising the deposit reserve ratio will not change the situation of the A-share market. Based on the bull market, the market will have further room for growth.

However, some analysts told reporters that the timing of this increase in the deposit reserve ratio is very short from the last interest rate hike and increase in the deposit reserve ratio, which may create a superimposed effect of regulatory policies. , will eventually suppress the gathering energy of the long kinetic energy of the A-share market. Investors should remain cautious about this.